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Outlook 15 August

Posted by Dan on August 15, 2011

After a very volatile week the market is actually not down very much for the week.
But once again we could see that staying out in lunar Red Periods is good for the heart.
We have a few more Red Period days to come, but I don’t think it will take us to new lows.

Here is an updated longer term S&P 500 chart (click for larger image):

S&P

My momentum indicator has dropped to its lowest level since October 2008. Back then, the ensuing months offered two more opportunities to buy at even lower prices. Something similar could happen again, but it is not guaranteed.
You can see the market is still nicely contained in a broad uptrend channel that started off the 2009 lows.
I think any drop to the lower boundary (currently near 1050 for the S&P) would be a great buying opportunity.

We are about to start a lunar Green Period, so the market is likely to stay in recovery mode for the rest of August.
But we have to stay careful as the next Red Period could already bring us a retest of the recent lows.
So, stay tuned for our next weekly outlook.

Danny

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