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Levels to watch

Posted by Dan on June 6, 2013

Yesterday, all three major US stock indices closed below my daily trailing stop-loss levels. It is the first time it happens this year. This doesn’t mean we are in a bear market already, as the stocks may still rebound. But, if they also fall below my weekly stop-loss levels, then we will be in a bear market.

I calculate these key levels on a daily and weekly basis with a private formula.
Here are the currrent levels to watch.

For the bull market to resume we now need a daily close above these levels:
Dow Jones Industrials: 15231
S&P 500: 1645
Nasdaq Composite: 3454

We will be in a bear market when we get a weekly close below these levels:
Dow Jones Industrials: 14266
S&P 500: 1535
Nasdaq Composite: 3223

Gold has been in an ongoing bear market for months, but a daily close above $1423 would be a short term buy signal. It would currently take a weekly close above $1555 to indicate that gold has entered a new bull market.

The Euro/$ has recently broken above my daily key level, but now it needs a weekly close above 1.314 to get into bull market mode. If the Euro closes below the daily key level at 1.2928, then it would indicate a continuing bear move. So, here the range is very small and the euro is likely to chose a direction soon.

I am planning to add this information in my weekly blog posts from now onwards.

Be well,

5 Responses to “Levels to watch”

  1. Danny,

    Outstanding work. Great job and many thanks.

    Clear. Concise. And sensible.


  2. Hmm, the solar activity has been typically high lately in X-flares after the apparent sunspot peak – are you taking account of the risk-averse effect involved? As well as some possible delayed (magnetospheric ion cyclotron wave) lunar surface effects of the moon residing full on May 24th (directly in the magnetotail)?

    • Danny said

      These key levels are purely technical, so not based on any solar or lunar input.
      So, they are more meant as a framework within which we can watch the lunar cycles evolve.

      The solar activity was quite high until around mid-May, but has since weakened a lot. Actually, 1st June had zero sunspots according to the classic Wolf method:
      Spotless days near the solar maximum is rather unheard of. Because of this the solar wind is very weak and we are having very few geomagnetic storms, even when there are significant solar flares from time to time.
      Normally wewill be getting more geomag events by 2016. About two years after the sunspot peak is when we typically get the peak in geomagnetic storms.

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