Key reversal levels for week of July 8, 2013
Posted by Danny on July 8, 2013
Our key reversal levels going into next week:
| Status | Key (W) | Mom (W) | Mode | Key (D) | Mom (D) | |
| Nasdaq | BULL | S: 3255 | Down | RALLY | S: 3406 | Up |
| S&P 500 | BULL | S: 1548 | Down | RALLY * | S: 1612 | Up |
| Nikkei | BULL | S: 12202 | Down | RALLY | S: 13368 | Up |
| FTSE 100 | BULL * | S: 6222 | Down | RALLY | S: 6315 | Up |
| DAX | BEAR | R: 8082 | Down | DECLINE | R: 8105 | Up |
| Bonds (TLT) | BEAR | R: 117.81 | Down | DECLINE | R: 112.60 | Down * |
| Gold (spot) | BEAR | R: 1479 | Down | DECLINE | R: 1306 | Up |
| Euro/US$ | BEAR * | R: 1.3188 | Down | DECLINE | R: 1.3130 | Down |
| Crude Oil(CL) | BULL | S: 91.77 | Up | RALLY | S: 95.78 | Up |
(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, Mom = momentum, * = change from previous week/day)
Important developments:
* Most stock markets are in rally mode again and the daily momentum remains up. The FTSE 100 has closed above its weekly key and is now in bull status.
* Only the German DAX index is lagging and has not yet made it above its key reversal levels, although its daily momentum is still up.
* The weekly momentum remains down for all stock markets, which means more strength is needed before we can declare the recent market correction over.
* Bonds (TLT) has seen its daily momentum turn down again, which means it is too early to declare a short term bottom.
* Gold is seeing its first positive sign in a long time, as its daily momentum has turned up last week. This means there is a good chance it will go on to test its daily key reversal level, which is currently at $1306. A close above that level would mean gold has entered rally mode. A failure to close above its daily key reversal in the coming weeks will mean that the decline is ongoing.
* The Euro has weakened further and closed the week below its key support, which means it is now in bear status.
* Oil has continued to rise and remains positive on a weekly and daily basis.
Good luck,
Danny
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J B said
Hi there, I find these key reversals very interesting. Is it possible to add Natural Gas and Mining stocks (GDX) to this list ? That would be great.
Thanks and best regards
Danny said
Hi JB,
Glad you like them.
I intend to add more markets, and will consider good suggestions. But first I have some work to do on making the calculations fully automatic. Right now there is still some manual operation involved, which makes it too time consuming for me to add more markets.
Once I have everything set up in excel it will be much quicker, as I can then post the table as a gif picture, rather then current html table.
So, stay tuned.
Danny
misho said
can u replace the TLT to the main bond [for 10 years] please
?
tnx
Danny said
Hi Misho,
See also my above comment.
You mean IEF , right?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ief&ql=1
misho said
no danny
ther 2 3 main bonds to 2 years or 10 years [that is the most traded] and 30 years bond for 410 yeras shows the main picture at the market now it is at 125.37 the contracts is live 24 hours this is the most importent tool to know where is markets aheads
misho said
* correction
2 years – short term
10 years main bond 125/37 price now
30 years
10 years us bond is the compas of the market wich tell us where we r going too
please add it and india nifty 50 is importent market too tnx
Danny said
Yes, I know there are many different maturities, but they are all very highly correlated with each other and with the respective etf that exist for them. So I do not intend to add too many of them. I will probably first add German bonds and maybe Japanese, because at least they may move in different direction from the US dollar interest rates (and thus bonds).
If I add Indian stock market it is going to be Sensex index.
But all will have to wait until I am ready for them.
Danny
misho said
no IEF [ what u added is kind of ETF on the bond 7-10 years and isnt bond itself ] here link http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/us-10-yr-t-note
misho said
i c u dont get me never mind bye