Key reversal levels for week of August 19, 2013
Posted by Danny on August 18, 2013
Our key reversal levels going into next week:
|Status||Key (W)||Mom (W)||Mode||Key (D)||Mom (D)|
|Nasdaq||BULL||S: 3379||Up||DECLINE||R: 3632||Down|
|S&P 500||BULL||S: 1589.20||Down *||DECLINE||R: 1684.10||Down|
|Nikkei||BULL||S: 12573||Down||DECLINE||R: 14115||Up|
|FTSE 100||BULL||S: 6304||Up||DECLINE||R: 6582||Down|
|DAX||BULL||S: 7957||Up||RALLY||S: 8263||Up|
|Bonds (TLT)||BEAR||R: 113.88||Down *||DECLINE||R: 106.80||Down|
|Gold (spot)||BEAR||R: 1431||Up||RALLY||S: 1301||Up|
|Euro/US$||BULL||S: 1.3022||Up||RALLY||S: 1.3190||Down|
|Crude Oil(CL)||BULL||S: 96.59||Up||RALLY||S: 104.33||Up|
(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, Mom = momentum, * = change from previous week/day)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Important developments last week:
* Most stock markets have fallen below their daily key levels and have thus gone into decline mode. This means we could go on to test their weekly key levels.
* The DAX is showing more strength and remains in rally mode.
* The weekly momentum for the S&P 500 has turned down, adding to the warning signs that stock markets have been giving in recent weeks.
* Bonds (TLT) were rejected as they came close to their daily key level, and have now seen their daily momentum turn down again. The weekly momentum has turned down again as well. So, it’s back to a fully bearish picture for bonds and we wait for the next signs of a potential upturn.
* Gold has broken above its daily key level last Monday, and is now in rally mode again. The next big hurdle is the weekly key reversal level, currently at $1431. A weekly close above that level would put gold in bull status.
* The Euro/US$ remains in rally mode, but only barely so. It will take a push above the 1.34 level to turn its daily momentum back up and keep the rally going.
* Oil continues to try to the upside. But here it will take a push above $110 to keep this rally going. A drop back below the daily key level at $104.33 would leave a triple top on the charts.
My method to generate these key reversal levels also generates certain price levels as a by-product. I have noticed that these price levels often mark future tops or bottoms, which can come months or even more than a year after these price levels first stand out from my calculations. These target prices do not appear very often, so they can remain in play for months.
For example for the S&P 500 it currently gives me an upside target of 1799 and a downside target of 1522.
For gold it projects an upside target of 1448 and the downside target is 1001.
For bonds(TLT) it gives a downside target of 102, so that one is now coming close to target.
For oil the upside target is 121, with downside targets of 89.50 and 77.
Remember, not all of these target levels are going to be reached. But when such a target level is reached (give or take 1%) then it may be the end of the move or at least the start of a significant pause in the move.
If readers are interested then I will look for a way to add this info in the weekly key tables.