LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Key reversal levels for week of August 19, 2013

Posted by Danny on August 18, 2013

Our key reversal levels going into next week:

Status Key (W) Mom (W) Mode Key (D) Mom (D)
Nasdaq BULL S: 3379 Up DECLINE R: 3632 Down
S&P 500 BULL S: 1589.20 Down * DECLINE R: 1684.10 Down
Nikkei BULL S: 12573 Down DECLINE R: 14115 Up
FTSE 100 BULL S: 6304 Up DECLINE R: 6582 Down
DAX BULL S: 7957 Up RALLY S: 8263 Up
Bonds (TLT) BEAR R: 113.88 Down * DECLINE R: 106.80 Down
Gold (spot) BEAR R: 1431 Up RALLY S: 1301 Up
Euro/US$ BULL S: 1.3022 Up RALLY S: 1.3190 Down
Crude Oil(CL) BULL S: 96.59 Up RALLY S: 104.33 Up

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, Mom = momentum, * = change from previous week/day)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* Most stock markets have fallen below their daily key levels and have thus gone into decline mode. This means we could go on to test their weekly key levels.

* The DAX is showing more strength and remains in rally mode.

* The weekly momentum for the S&P 500 has turned down, adding to the warning signs that stock markets have been giving in recent weeks.

* Bonds (TLT) were rejected as they came close to their daily key level, and have now seen their daily momentum turn down again.  The weekly momentum has turned down again as well. So, it’s back to a fully bearish picture for bonds and we wait for the next signs of a potential upturn.

* Gold has broken above its daily key level last Monday, and is now in rally mode again. The next big hurdle is the weekly key reversal level, currently at $1431. A weekly close above that level would put gold in bull status.

* The Euro/US$ remains in rally mode, but only barely so. It will take a push above the 1.34 level to turn its daily momentum back up and keep the rally going.

* Oil continues to try to the upside. But here it will take a push above $110 to keep this rally going. A drop back below the daily key level at $104.33 would leave a triple top on the charts.

 

My method to generate these key reversal levels also generates certain price levels as a by-product. I have noticed that these price levels often mark future tops or bottoms, which can come months or even more than a year after these price levels first stand out from my calculations. These target prices do not appear very often, so they can remain in play for months.
For example for the S&P 500 it currently gives me an upside target of 1799 and a downside target of 1522.
For gold it projects an upside target of 1448 and the downside target is 1001.
For bonds(TLT) it gives a downside target of 102, so that one is now coming close to target.
For oil the upside target is 121, with downside targets of 89.50 and 77.

Remember, not all of these target levels are going to be reached. But when such a target level is reached (give or take 1%) then it may be the end of the move or at least the start of a significant pause in the move.

If readers are interested then I will look for a way to add this info in the weekly key tables.

Good luck,
Danny

 

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6 Responses to “Key reversal levels for week of August 19, 2013”

  1. Benjamin said

    Danny

    Please look for a way to add the target levels into the weekly key tables. I am one of probably many who is interested in seeing this information on a weekly basis.

    Benjamin

    • Danny said

      Thanks. I think about doing it as an extra separate table. Adding it in the existing one would make it too full and confuse newcomers.
      The target levels do not change every week, so it won’t be too much work.

  2. marlowe said

    I too would appreciate the target levels. Sounds like you don’t want to mess with the current table but it would be nice to add Friday closing prices for quick comparison to the key levels.

  3. I agree target levels would be a valuable addition…

    ^joe

  4. Danny said

    Ok. Thanks for the thumbs up.
    The target levels are up now, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/

    Danny

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