LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Key reversal levels for week of September 30, 2013

Posted by Danny on September 29, 2013

Our key reversal levels going into next week:

Current Status Key (W) MoM (W) Mode Key (D) MoM (D)
Nasdaq 3782 BULL S: 3499.80 6.57 (6.13) RALLY S: 3717 5.17 (5.69)
S&P 500 1692 BULL S: 1618.60 2.71 (2.50) RALLY S: 1678.50 3.4 (4.86)
Nikkei 14760 BULL S: 13012 2.44 (1.64) RALLY S: 14206 5.21 (5.58)
FTSE 100 6513 BULL S: 6365 1.40 (1.47) DECLINE * R: 6585 0.07 (0.79)
DAX 8661 BULL S: 8158 3.15 (2.54) RALLY S: 8502 6.17 (7.0)
Bonds (TLT) 106.56 BEAR R: 110.43 -5.0 (-5.83) RALLY S: 104.71 5.62 (5.19)
Gold (spot) 1336.51 BEAR R: 1417.50 0.12 (0.43) DECLINE R: 1363.50 -2.38 (-2.69)
EURUSD 1.3520 BULL S: 1.3131 2.71 (2.24) RALLY S: 1.3363 5.81 (6.49)
Oil (CL) 102.87 BULL S: 99.52 3.20 (4.26) DECLINE R: 106.03 -4.95 (-4.76)

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, MoM = MoM indicator, * = changed from last week)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the key reversal levels last week:

* Stock markets seem to be going through an ordinary pullback and stay in rally mode, except for the FTSE100, which continues to display weakness and has fallen into decline mode.

* Daily MoM is down for all markets, showing that the pullback is ongoing, but weekly MoM remains up so there is no reason for panic

* Bonds (TLT) have continued to rally and are now close to testing their weekly key reversal level.

* Gold remains in fully bearish mode. Weekly MoM is still down, while daily MoM is slightly to the upside. Still too early to buy.

* The EURUSD has held on the recent gains, but the daily MoM has turned down, which is a first sign that the rally may have ended. I would sell EURUSD as soon as we see a daily close below the key reversal level at 1.3363

* Oil has continued to go down and may soon be testing its weekly key reversal level. A weekly close below $99.52 would mean that oil has gone into bear status.

 

And here are our key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

 Key Targets Top Top2 Bottom Bottom2
Nasdaq 3830 3930 3530  3210
S&P 500 1738 1799 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 * 16580 12710  10450
FTSE 100 6800 7100 6205 6110
DAX 8920 9205 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 128.50 134 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1078
EURUSD 1.36 1.3950 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 89.50 77

(* = new target, Bold = closely matches a major weekly key target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* We have a new top target for Nikkei index at 15850

* The EURUSD remains stuck near its upside target at 1.36

 

Good luck,

Danny

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