LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Key reversal levels for week of October 27, 2013

Posted by Danny on October 28, 2013

Here the new weekly key reversal table:

Weekly Current BB Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,943.36 3,587.81 7.61 42 27.65
S&P 500 1,759.77 1,644.33 4.64 47 24.25
Nikkei 14,088.19 13,294.53 2.39 48 48.83
FTSE 100 6,721.30 6,394.52 1.18 15 2.70
DAX 8,985.74 8,369.11 5.96 15 9.08
Bonds (TLT) 108.29 109.17 -1.13 23 -7.03
Gold (spot) 1,350.03 1,405.79 -1.55 44 -18.52
$EURUSD 1.3801 1.3267 5.26 13 3.91
Oil (CL) 97.85 103.97 -1.02 0 0.00

(Legend: BB: green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM: MoM indicator | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish trend | % Ch: percent change since start of current trend | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* Covered stock indexes have continued to march higher, but for the Nikkei we see the weekly MoM turn down this week (yellow boxes show a change of direction), which is a warning sign.

* Bonds (TLT) are closing in on their weekly key reversal level. A weekly close above 109.17 would be a long term bullish sign.

* Gold is showing signs of life and the weekly MoM has now turned up. This could mean the 44 week bear market is coming to an end, We now watch the weekly key level at $1405.79 for a potential switch into bull market.

* The EURUSD is still giving an “all clear” in the weekly keys.

* Oil has closed below its weekly key level and is now in bear (red) status from this week onwards. It will take a weekly close above 103.97 to get oil back in the bullish camp.

And here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:

Daily Current BB Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,943.36 3,793.52 8.73 10 4.67
S&P 500 1,759.77 1,703.96 8.83 11 4.06
Nikkei 14,088.19 14,458.65 2.72 0 0.00
FTSE 100 6,721.30 6,523.10 8.58 8 2.63
DAX 8,985.74 8,687.84 8.71 11 3.22
Bonds (TLT) 108.29 106.17 7.20 6 1.10
Gold (spot) 1,350.03 1,305.31 2.72 3 0.77
$EURUSD 1.3801 1.3568 7.48 32 3.69
Oil (CL) 97.85 102.08 -6.15 28 -6.60

(Legend: BB : green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM: MoM indicator | Days: days since start of current rally or decline | % Ch: percent change since start of current move | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* The Nikkei has fallen into decline (red) mode by closing below its daily key level last Friday. The Nikkei is now clearly the weakest market among the major indexes.

* On the Nasdaq momentum (MoM) is turning down from a very high level. This is a first warning sign.

* Gold has gone into rally (green) mode last week and I think this rally will have more legs than the previous one. See the tweet I posted: http://t.co/SQcUm8j55w

* $EURUSD is quietly ticking upwards.

* Oil (CL) is quietly sinking downwards.

And here are our key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top Top2 Bottom Bottom2
Nasdaq 3930 3975 3530 3210
S&P 500 1799 1820 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 16580 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7100 6205 6110
DAX 8920 9310 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1078
EURUSD 1.3950 1.55 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 94.30 89.50

(* = new target, Bold = closely matches a major weekly key target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* The Nasdaq is testing its 3930 target level. There is another target at 3975, so this is more a resistance zone just below the psychological 4000 level.

* The S&P is well on its way to test 1799 , so there we get the 1800 round number. Don’t be surprised if the Dow Jones starts knocking on the doors of 16k at the same time.

* The FTSE 100 and the DAX are testing their first top targets as well.

* $EURUSD has broken its 1.36 top target and well on the way to test 1.3950, its next hurdle.

* For oil we keep an eye on $94.30, a target that could be reached in the current downturn.

Good luck,

Danny

 

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4 Responses to “Key reversal levels for week of October 27, 2013”

  1. ray said

    what are the numbers in the mom box [ red /green ] didnt find explanation on it tnx

    • Danny said

      Hi Ray,

      When MoM is printed in green it is rising, when it is red it is falling.
      When it is printed in a yellow box, the direction has turned from the previous day/week.

      In due time I will update the fixed key reversal levels article to reflect the changed formats and information in the tables.

      I will also post an article on how to use this information in real investing/trading. How and when to enter and exit trades.
      Basically, when markets are trending, you will make money quite easily by sticking to the bullish/bearish mode (green/red box), just following the trend patiently until the end. The last column of the tables show you the current profit (or loss) if you had just sticked with the current trend from the last time the key reversal level got crossed. It shows a lot of green right now, because most markets have made nice trending moves. That is not always the case. When a market starts going sideways for longer time, then money can be made by trading with the direction of MoM, buying when MoM turns up and selling when it turns down. So, it are complementary systems and that’s why these tables can work in any type market. More on that later.

      Danny

  2. ray said

    in the mom box there is a number what is it ?

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