LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Key reversal levels for week of November 4, 2013

Posted by Danny on November 3, 2013

Note: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account. I cannot cover every market or stock, but I do plan to increase coverage. Here on the blog I will stick to my weekly post covering the reversals for major markets, gold, oil and euro/usd. The rest goes out through twitter. If you have any question or suggestion, just use the comments space here.

OK. Here is the key reversal table for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,922.04 3,618.46 8.23 43 26.96
S&P 500 1,761.64 1,656.23 5.54 48 24.38
Nikkei 14,201.57 13,369.22 2.24 49 50.03
FTSE 100 6,734.70 6,427.16 2.24 16 2.90
DAX 9,007.83 8,444.49 6.83 16 9.35
Bonds (TLT) 106.19 109.10 -0.48 24 -8.84
Gold (spot) 1,315.81 1,403.05 -1.42 45 -20.58
$EURUSD 1.3489 1.3288 4.92 14 1.56
Oil (CL) 94.61 103.60 -2.21 1 -3.34

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* Covered stock indexes remain bullish, with Nikkei showing some weakness in the form of falling momentum (MoM). All markets stay well above their weekly key reversal levels.

* Bonds (TLT) have stagnated just below their weekly key reversal level. A weekly close above 109.10 would be a long term bullish sign.

* The EURUSD has weakened and its weekly MoM has now turned down. A weekly close below 1.3288 would indicate the start of a bear market for the Euro.

And here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,922.04 3,832.00 6.49 15 4.10
S&P 500 1,761.64 1,721.22 8.04 16 4.17
Nikkei 14,201.57 14,456.77 -0.88 0 0.00
FTSE 100 6,734.70 6,580.06 8.39 13 2.83
DAX 9,007.83 8,776.50 8.18 16 3.48
Bonds (TLT) 106.19 107.16 3.07 0 0.00
Gold (spot) 1,315.81 1,313.33 2.46 8 -1.78
$EURUSD 1.3489 1.3681 1.85 1 -0.68
Oil (CL) 94.61 100.47 -5.92 33 -9.70

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* The Nikkei continues to show weakness and all other covered stock indexes are now also displaying a declining MoM, which is typically the first warning sign after a rally. This means a downturn could be imminent. Not a bad idea to take some profits here, or move your stops closer to the market.

* Bonds (TLT) have fallen below their daily key reversal and are now in declining mode again. The recent rally has failed to lift bonds above their weekly key reversal level, and this suggests the path of least resistance remains down.

* Gold has not done so well last week, and is only barely holding above its daily key reversal level. MoM has turned down as well.

* $EURUSD has weakened significantly and crashed below its daily key level last Thursday. A clear sign to sell Euro.

* Oil (CL) has dropped further, but the daily MoM is turning up, which means oil is getting ready for some rebound move.

And here are our key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top Top2 Bottom Bottom2
Nasdaq 3975 4200 * 3530 3210
S&P 500 1799 1820 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 16580 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 * 6205 6110
DAX 9310 9480 * 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1078
EURUSD 1.3950 1.55 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 94.30 89.50

(* = new target, Bold = closely matches a major weekly key target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* There are new top targets for Nasdaq at 4200, for DAX at 9480, and an adjusted target for FTSE 100 at 7150.

* The Nasdaq continues to stagnate at its 3930-3975 top target levels.

* The FTSE 100 has touched its 6800 target and reversed promptly.

* $EURUSD came within 1% of its 1.3950 top target, and then sold off.

* Oil has nicely reached its $94.30 bottom target. Look for oil to find some support at this level. If not, the door to $89.50 will open.

Good luck,

Danny

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