LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Key reversal levels for week of November 11, 2013

Posted by Danny on November 10, 2013

Here is our key reversal table for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,919.23 3,641.07 8.33 44 26.87
S&P 500 1,770.61 1,666.31 6.61 49 25.01
Nikkei 14,086.79 13,430.01 1.94 50 48.81
FTSE 100 6,708.39 6,450.52 2.90 17 2.50
DAX 9,078.28 8,511.13 7.43 17 10.20
Bonds (TLT) 103.41 108.49 -0.12 25 -10.75
Gold (spot) 1,288.20 1,398.02 -1.69 46 -22.25
$EURUSD 1.3366 1.3288 4.03 15 0.63
Oil (CL) 94.60 103.06 -3.44 2 -3.35

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* Covered stock indexes continue to be bullish on the weekly level. Weekly MoM remains to the upside, with the exception of Nikkei.

* Bonds (TLT) seem to have missed the chance to go into bullish mode. Weekly MoM is still positive, but time is running out and a continuation of the bear market is becoming increasingly likely.

* For gold we see weekly MoM turning back down again this week. Gold hasn’t been able to climb above its weekly key reversal level and the bear market continues. Patience required.

* The EURUSD continues to weaken as well. It is coming very close to testing its key reversal level at 1.3288.

And here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,919.23 3,852.98 1.83 20 4.03
S&P 500 1,770.61 1,732.00 4.00 21 4.70
Nikkei 14,086.79 14,407.05 -2.51 4 -1.63
FTSE 100 6,708.39 6,614.11 3.86 18 2.43
DAX 9,078.28 8,841.75 5.80 21 4.29
Bonds (TLT) 103.41 106.34 -4.73 3 -1.46
Gold (spot) 1,288.20 1,331.92 -1.84 3 -1.79
$EURUSD 1.3366 1.3605 -5.89 6 -1.59
Oil (CL) 94.60 98.78 -7.07 38 -9.71

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* Daily momentum (MoM) continues to go down for all covered stock indexes. Most markets (except Nikkei) have kept above their key reversal levels, so they remain in rally mode but we have to monitor ongoing developments closely.

* Bonds (TLT) are in declining mode and no signs of the MoM indicator turning up.

* Gold has fallen below its daily key reversal level last week and is now in declining mode again. Too early to buy.

* $EURUSD continues to sink and its momentum remains down.

* Oil (CL) has stabilized near our bottom target at $94 and the daily MoM is turning up from a very depressed level. That makes oil a speculative buy at this point, but a further drop towards $89 cannot be ruled out, so I wouldn’t risk more than $1/barrel on it.

Lastly, the key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top Top2 Bottom Bottom2
Nasdaq 3975 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1799 1820 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 16580 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6205 6110
DAX 9310 9480 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1078
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 * 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 94.30 89.50

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* There is a new top target for $EURUSD at 1.42.

* The Nasdaq continues to push into its 3930-3975 top target. A second or third attempt is often successful. If it breaks out to the upside then start watching for 4200.

* Bonds (TLT) are close to testing their long standing bottom target at 102 again. That bottom held in August-September, but on a third attempt it is likely to give way. If so, we will start looking for 96.25

* In the gold market we can set sights on the first bottom target near $1215.

* Oil has survived the first test of its $94.30 bottom target.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

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