LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Key reversal levels for week of November 18, 2013

Posted by Danny on November 17, 2013

Here is our key reversal table for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,985.97 3,665.43 8.24 45 29.03
S&P 500 1,798.18 1,677.09 7.08 50 26.96
Nikkei 15,165.91 13,504.08 2.06 51 60.21
FTSE 100 6,693.39 6,468.47 3.20 18 2.27
DAX 9,168.69 8,570.97 7.92 18 11.30
Bonds (TLT) 104.73 108.28 -0.36 26 -9.61
Gold (spot) 1,289.66 1,390.89 -1.90 47 -22.16
$EURUSD 1.3494 1.3293 3.16 16 1.60
Oil (CL) 93.84 102.58 -4.35 3 -4.13

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* The bull market in stocks continues. But for the Nasdaq we see the weekly MoM turn downwards from a very high level. If MoM falls back below +8 it is usually a sign to get out or at least take partial profits.

* For bonds (TLT) the weekly MoM is turning down again as well. TLT has failed to climb above its weekly key level and the bear market in bonds goes on.

* Gold and oil continue to be bearish, while the $EURUSD has survived its first test of the weekly key level. For all of them the weekly MoM continues to go down, so the long term picture remains weak.

And here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,985.97 3,878.88 3.07 25 5.80
S&P 500 1,798.18 1,744.00 5.30 26 6.33
Nikkei 15,165.91 14,357.41 3.76 3 4.39
FTSE 100 6,693.39 6,626.43 -0.60 23 2.20
DAX 9,168.69 8,900.22 5.50 26 5.33
Bonds (TLT) 104.73 105.53 -8.05 8 -0.20
Gold (spot) 1,289.66 1,314.42 -4.56 8 -1.68
$EURUSD 1.3494 1.3551 -4.47 11 -0.65
Oil (CL) 93.84 97.74 -5.00 43 -10.43

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* Daily momentum (MoM) has turned up for all stock markets, except the FTSE 100. The rally continues and we start watching their top targets (see below).

* Bonds (TLT) have seen their daily MoM turn up from a very low level. That makes space for another rally if TLT can close above 105.53.

* Gold, $EURUSD and crude oil have now rising MoM as well, which means all are ready for short term rebound rallies after their recent declines. First target is the daily key reversal levels, and if they can close above that then we can start looking for a test of their weekly key reversal levels.

* After a significant move to the downside it is always daily MoM that gives the first positive sign by turning upwards. That’s the earliest point where you can buy if you like to get in near a bottom. I always use a rather tight stop-loss when I take that kind of trade, and I also get out if the MoM turns back down again. I plan to do a special post on strategies for trading the key reversal levels when time permits.

Lastly, our key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top Top2 Bottom Bottom2
Nasdaq 3975 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1799 1820 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 16580 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6205 6110
DAX 9310 9480 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1078
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 94.30 89.50

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* No new targets this week.

* The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are testing their first top targets. The Nasdaq has been pushing into the 3975 level for a month now. A continued failure at that level would be a bad omen going forward.

* Bonds (TLT) seem to have survived their retest of the 102 bottom target.

* Oil continues to linger near its $94.30 bottom target.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

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