LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Key reversal levels for week of November 25, 2013

Posted by Danny on November 24, 2013

Here is our key reversal table for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,991.64 3,688.16 8.25 46 29.21
S&P 500 1,804.76 1,688.77 7.60 51 27.42
Nikkei 15,381.71 13,652.26 2.89 52 62.49
FTSE 100 6,674.29 6,488.00 3.53 19 1.98
DAX 9,219.04 8,639.53 8.22 19 11.91
Bonds (TLT) 103.91 108.11 -0.76 27 -10.31
Gold (spot) 1,243.46 1,383.55 -2.43 48 -24.95
$EURUSD 1.3555 1.3303 2.52 17 2.06
Oil (CL) 94.84 102.15 -4.77 4 -3.11

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* Still “all green” as far as the covered stock indexes go. MoM indicator is again going up for all markets. Bull markets have a tendency to continue longer than most people expect.  That’s why buying the dips has been a profitable strategy this year, and trying to forecast the next correction has not.

* Continuing weakness in bonds (TLT) , gold and oil with momentum (MoM) remaining to the downside.

* $EURUSD is holding above its weekly key level. But MoM continues to be weak, so the Euro is not out of the woods yet.

 

And here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,991.64 3,899.06 2.80 30 5.95
S&P 500 1,804.76 1,756.17 6.20 31 6.72
Nikkei 15,381.71 14,671.07 8.64 8 5.88
FTSE 100 6,674.29 6,635.90 -0.74 28 1.91
DAX 9,219.04 8,964.28 6.66 31 5.90
Bonds (TLT) 103.91 105.14 -4.49 13 -0.98
Gold (spot) 1,243.46 1,296.80 -5.85 13 -5.20
$EURUSD 1.3555 1.3452 -0.52 0 0.00
Oil (CL) 94.84 96.97 -2.10 48 -9.48

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* On the daily level the stock markets remain in rally mode, with MoM turning back up for the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

* The European markets look a bit weaker, especially the FTSE 100, which is only barely holding above its daily key reversal level.

* Bonds (TLT) may have bottomed again. MoM is turning up from a -4 bottom and TLT will go into rally mode if it can close above 105.15. The weekly key reversal level at 108.11 would then become the next target.

* Gold is showing a fully bearish (all red) picture again. Is now approaching its first bottom target at $1215.

* The $EURUSD has switched back into rally mode. Can it build on it, or will it fall right back? As long as the Euro stays above 1.3452 (daily closing basis) we assume it is headed for 1.3950, its first top target. On a close below 1.3452 the odds would shift to the downside again. With key reversal levels we just go along with what comes along.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top Top2 Bottom Bottom2
Nasdaq 3975 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1799 1820 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 16580 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6205 6110
DAX 9310 9480 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1078
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 94.30 89.50

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 continue to hover near their first top targets, but no clear breakout. The Nasdaq has been pushing into the 3975 level for over a month , so “Do time” is here.

* The Nikkei is closing in on its top target at 15850, and the DAX is within 1% of its top target at 9310.

* In case you are curious. For the widely watched Dow Jones Industrials, we have top targets at 16450 and 16985.

* When a lot of markets reach long standing top targets simultaneously it becomes interesting.

* Gold seems to be headed for the $1215 bottom target.

 

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

 

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