Stocks are climbing again after yet another brief pullback. After a one way year like this it is quite normal to see major indexes end the year at or near their highs. So, I wouldn’t look for much downside action in December, unless some major disaster strikes.
How high could we go in the last month of 2013?
Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart (click for larger image):
We are in a new lunar green period, so I am looking for the Nasdaq to push above 4000 in the coming weeks. Based on a few parallel trend channels the upper limit appears to be just under 4200. So, I think that is the best case scenario for a year end Nasdaq level.
For the S&P 500 I am looking for 1850 to be reached, and the Dow Jones is coming within reach of the 16500 target I mentioned this summer: Why Dow 16000 will be sold. The 16000 target was not reached in August, which means it is probably not going to be THE peak, but I still expect major resistance when the 16500 level is reached.
That could well become the theme of early 2014, but more on that in my new year forecasts which I hope to get ready around mid December. Last year’s forecasts did well for most covered markets, so stay tuned.
Danny
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2013 prediction oil & everything did well except for stock market when I read 1460 as year end 2013 prediction saying up 30.00% since start of decade 2010 if you add what market did so far that is way up 60.00% since start of decade. I don’t know how to read charts but I still remember end of april gold fell over 100 an ounce in a day that was when stock market had 2 big down days row then short covering or up almost every day since. What would be a major disaster strike does that mean a terrorist attack Inside usa? When theres is wall street scandals market nasdaq glitch phillipine disaster or n korea test nuclear missle market rockets higher. When is election time breakout theory poster talking about? Seems like after obama elected market had tiny dip then moon shot up when is the next election is when janet yellen takes over?
The stock market is up more than we expected at the beginning of 2013, but bear in mind that the forecasts based on the strong decade scenario were made years ago. It is just the average of what has happened in strong decades.
It’s funny how there are still some non-believers out there. I hear excuses from Obamacare, debt ceiling, to unemployment rates as to why they should not be buying stocks. Sticking to the charts tells me all I need to know. Plenty of upside left in this market. Should be a bull market at least up until election time.
Yes, that’s how it usually goes.
But we better start worrying when these excuses dissappear and when there are no non-believers anymore.
They push the market higher every time they have to cover short positions.