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Key reversal levels for week of January 20, 2014

Posted by Dan on January 18, 2014

Key reversal levels for this week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,197.58 3,848.98 8.15 54 35.88
S&P 500 1,838.70 1,758.17 7.06 59 29.82
Nikkei 15,734.46 14,758.35 7.28 60 66.22
FTSE 100 6,829.30 6,559.21 2.01 3 1.16
DAX 9,742.96 8,970.45 6.89 27 18.27
Bonds (TLT) 105.48 106.48 -2.18 35 -8.96
Gold (spot) 1,253.81 1,313.83 -3.74 56 -24.33
$EURUSD 1.3534 1.3455 1.99 25 1.90
Oil (CL) 94.59 100.36 -2.30 12 -3.36

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* Stock markets did well last week, but weekly momentum (MoM) remains down for US and Japanese indexes. The European markets appear a bit stronger right now.

* Bonds (TLT) are coming very close to their weekly key reversal level. A weekly close above 106.48 would turn bonds bullish for the first time in 35 weeks.

*$EURUSD is holding only barely above its weekly key reversal, so the euro is at risk of turning bearish again.

 

Daily key reversal levels as of today:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,197.58 4,121.02 4.93 67 11.42
S&P 500 1,838.70 1,819.93 2.72 20 1.64
Nikkei 15,734.46 15,580.07 -2.15 2 -0.70
FTSE 100 6,829.30 6,668.92 5.75 17 3.37
DAX 9,742.96 9,392.02 6.44 19 6.56
Bonds (TLT) 105.48 103.37 7.18 6 1.65
Gold (spot) 1,253.81 1,226.99 3.76 5 0.47
$EURUSD 1.3534 1.3681 -1.60 10 -0.43
Oil (CL) 94.59 95.58 -4.95 11 -0.92

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* Stock indexes picked up positive momentum (MoM)) again, with the exception of the  Nikkei. But all markets are bumping into their Top 1 target levels (see below), so it remains to be seen if they can push higher already.

* Bonds (TLT) have continued their rally and are close to testing their weekly key reversal level.

* Gold is hesitating while we see MoM turn down for $EURUSD. Watch the evolution for the Euro vs US dollar. If he dollar keeps strengthening then it will start weighing on gold prices.

 

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 4390 3530 3210
S&P 500 1870 1926 1755 1576
Nikkei 17220 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 6110
DAX 9800 10120 * 8715 7870
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1298 * 1448 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 * 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 105 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* A new Top1 target for gold at $1298

* A new Bottom1 target for $EURUSD at 1.3435

* A new Top2 target for the DAX at 10120

* Most stock indexes are once again testing their Top1 targets. On the second (or third) attempt at a target level you usually get the breakout, but if it fails again then you have an increased risk of a serious move in the other direction. So watch these levels carefully.

 

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

 

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