Weakness in stock markets is evident now. I already warned last week not to trust the current lunar green period, because some important targets have been reached and too many of my indicators are flashing warning signs. With a lunar red period coming up in early February there may be more downside action in store.
This week I will take a look at the Dow Jones Industrials Index. In a post last July ( Why Dow 16000 will be sold ), I presented a number of target calculations that pointed to 16400 (+/- 200) as a major level where selling was likely to kick in. While we didn’t reach that target in August, the Dow rose to a record 16588 in late December and is now pulling back below the 16000 level.
Here is an up to date chart for the Dow Jones (click for larger image):
The Dow is coming close to the early December lows, where some support is to be expected. I think we will see an attempt to regain the 16000 level this week, but the more important test will come in February. Will the January lows hold or not? If the market breaks lower then we can start watching for the 15000 level.
I am showing the Dow index this week, because I want to share a little method that can keep you at the right side of the market most of the time. The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks, which shows what stocks are bullish (green) or bearish (red), is a good indication for the general health of the market. I post them on my Twitter account every weekend. This is the current situation for the 30 stocks in Industrials average:
Six stocks have gone bearish last week, leaving now only 17 Dow Industrials stocks with a bullish setup on the weekly level. This is the lowest number of bullish stocks since December 2012. We got several pullbacks in 2013, but the number of bullish stocks in the Dow never dropped below 20. The current downturn appears to be of a more serious nature. The market will have to turn up really quickly, otherwise we will soon have more bearish stocks in the Dow than bullish ones, and that would imply the start of a bigger correction.
For a better perspective, this chart displays the number of bullish stocks on the Dow since 2012 (click for larger image):
Generally speaking we have a healthy bull market when 20 or more Dow stocks are bullish. When less than 15 stocks are bullish we are in a correction if not a bear market. For a conservative investor, a good way to stay out of trouble is to go underweight stocks when the number of bullish stocks in the Dow drops below 20 (or buy some options for protection), and get out completely when the number drops below 15. Then, get back into stocks when the number of bullish Dow stocks climbs above 20 again.
This chart shows how that basic approach would have done in the 2007-2009 bear market (click for larger image):
As the market started going down from record highs in 2007, the number of bullish stocks quickly fell below 20, and by early 2008 it dropped below 15. So, that was a clear sign to get out. It briefly rose back above 20 in May 2008, so one would have bought at that point. But that didn’t last long and soon the number of bullish stocks was back below 15, so out of the market again. In April 2009 the number of bullish stocks rose back above 20, and this proved to be a more profitable buy signal.
It is a simple method and only takes a few minutes per week. It isn’t perfect, but one can use it to avoid the major pitfalls and will always be on board whenever there is a strong bull market.
Good luck,
Danny
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LunaticTrader 
Hi Danny
I use a similar method with my Top 40 Index
But the Top 10 stocks make up 60% of the index (by capitalisation )
So only when these 10 are ALL down will I consider a BEAR.
Would this not also apply to the DOW?
regards
bob
Hi Bob,
When trying to create a composite indicator or system (based on a group of stocks), the market capitalization can indeed be important, but not always. The Dow Jones Industrials itself is price-weighted, so the market cap of the 30 stocks is not considered in the index.
The basic idea is that the 30 Dow stocks are large cap representatives of different economic sectors, so whenever a majority of these large cap stocks have a bearish setup it doesn’t bode well for the overall market.
The most crucial step is how to determine whether a given stock is bearish or bullish. In the system shown here I use the weekly key reversal levels, but of course it could also be based on a moving average or other indicators.
Depending on the nature of the chosen criterion for bullish/bearish of stocks, we then need a threshold for deciding bullish/bearish of the overall market.
In many cases, waiting for all stocks to turn bearish will not work well. E.g. for my key reversal levels, it is very rare for all 30 Dow stocks to be bearish on the weekly level. It only happens at the very end of long bear markets, so it becomes a buy signal rather than a sell signal. The last time with zero bullish stocks in the Dow based on the weekly key reversals was October 2008 until March 2009, when the bear market was ending.
With key reversal levels or moving average based systems, more than 50% bearish stocks generally means it is better to get out until things improve.
It will always be difficult for an index to go up when more than half of the stocks in the index are going down. And if and index goes up despite a majority of the stocks going down, then it is also not a healthy sign (poor market breadth), so still a good idea to stay out of it until things improve.
Danny
Thank you
bob
Danny,
i must say; even though i am NOT a trader, with your blog which is FREE is more informative and educational than with whose you read with tons of money and still lose. thanks, and i must say again your work is exceptional and great and if everybody follow with little head they would sure not lose money.
thanks again for keeping this great blog open
God Bless
vick
Thanks for the thumbs up, Vick