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Key reversal levels for week of February 24, 2014

Posted by Dan on February 22, 2014

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,263.41 3,903.20 6.03 59 38.01
S&P 500 1,836.25 1,766.65 2.27 64 29.65
Nikkei 14,865.67 15,239.04 -1.45 2 1.49
FTSE 100 6,838.10 6,554.90 0.42 0 0.00
DAX 9,656.95 9,056.11 3.64 32 17.23
Bonds (TLT) 106.67 104.84 2.86 4 -0.51
Gold (spot) 1,323.79 1,262.47 0.72 1 0.43
$EURUSD 1.3735 1.3499 0.64 30 3.41
Oil (CL) 102.20 96.62 1.02 1 2.08

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments on the weekly key reversal levels:

* Nasdaq, S&P 500 and FTSE100 are back to fully bullish with upward MoM. Nikkei remains the weaker market, with the DAX still hesitating as well.

* $EURUSD is seeing MoM turn up again, so bullish tendency for euro continues.

Latest daily key reversal levels:

21/02/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,263.41 4,152.01 7.95 9 3.35 1
S&P 500 1,836.25 1,802.48 6.71 7 0.89 1
Nikkei 14,865.67 15,029.70 -1.33 19 -1.50 12
FTSE 100 6,838.10 6,645.03 6.59 8 2.48 1
DAX 9,656.95 9,434.48 5.74 8 1.60 6
Bonds (TLT) 106.67 105.86 -1.85 29 2.79 17
Gold (spot) 1,323.79 1,278.36 7.13 30 6.07 2
$EURUSD 1.3735 1.3647 4.16 10 0.88 1
Oil (CL) 102.20 98.24 7.37 21 5.70 1

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments on the daily key reversal levels:

* All daily signals are nicely in the green (see %Ch. column). This shows the merits of simple trend following versus trying to forecast the next bottom or top.

* Most stock indexes remain in strong bullish mode on the daily level, with Nikkei and DAX being the exceptions. Eventually the current stock market rally will peter out and then we will see MoM turn down for most markets.

* Bonds (TLT), euro and oil are also in fully bullish pictures wit no signs of a top yet. Just go along until the bus stops.

* Gold is hesitating after its recent strong rally. With MoM still at a relatively high 7.13 this pauze could continue for a while. If MoM turns back up before gold drops below its key reversal level, then it will be a good chance to enter (or add to) long gold positions. In a young bull market it is important to try to buy the dips.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1926 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 5980 *
DAX 9800 10120 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 * 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Latest developments:

* For gold we have an improved Top1 target at $1424

* FTSE100 has an adjusted Bottom2 target of 5980

* Nasdaq has pushed above its long standing target at 4200, so 4390 is now the next Top1 target.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter. We also try to tweet the daily key reversal levels every day.

Good luck, Danny

 

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