Comments for this week (the reversal tables are posted below) :
* The Nikkei has closed above its weekly key reversal level and is now bullish again. But it could be a fake out move as its weekly MoM remains to the downside, which is suspect. If Nikkei moves above 15500 we can become more confident that this rally is for real.
* US and UK markets are once again testing their Top1 targets and seem to be stalling near these levels. Daily MoM remains to the downside for Nasdaq and FTSE 100, while the DAX continues to weaken. It looks like most markets will need another pullback before they can climb higher.
* Bonds (TLT) are weakening as well. Weekly MoM is turning down and on the daily level bonds have fallen below their key reversal level, putting them into declining mode. If TLT closes below 105.03 next week it will enter fully bearish mode.
* We have a new Top2 target for gold at $1541. This targets will come into play if gold can break above its Top1 target.
***
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,336.22 | 3,934.46 | 7.00 | 61 | 40.37 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,878.04 | 1,774.88 | 3.18 | 66 | 32.60 | |
| Nikkei | 15,274.07 | 14,610.87 | -2.05 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,712.70 | 6,589.90 | 1.15 | 2 | -1.83 | |
| DAX | 9,350.75 | 9,095.92 | 3.09 | 34 | 13.51 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 105.89 | 105.03 | 2.72 | 6 | -1.24 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,339.64 | 1,273.44 | 2.50 | 3 | 1.63 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3878 | 1.3540 | 1.50 | 32 | 4.49 | |
| Oil (CL) | 102.58 | 97.21 | 2.62 | 3 | 2.46 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 3/7/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,336.22 | 4,236.65 | 6.23 | 19 | 5.12 | 2 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,878.04 | 1,831.29 | 6.49 | 17 | 3.18 | 1 | ||
| Nikkei | 15,274.07 | 14,751.60 | 2.21 | 1 | -0.04 | 5 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,712.70 | 6,704.21 | 0.91 | 18 | 0.60 | 2 | ||
| DAX | 9,350.75 | 9,601.36 | -1.59 | 4 | -1.09 | 7 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 105.89 | 107.35 | 1.55 | 0 | 0.00 | 35 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,339.64 | 1,306.85 | 3.73 | 40 | 7.34 | 2 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3878 | 1.3700 | 2.86 | 20 | 1.93 | 1 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 102.58 | 99.81 | 2.42 | 31 | 6.09 | 2 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4566 | 3797 | 3530 |
| S&P 500 | 1870 | 1934 | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7250 | 6230 | 5980 |
| DAX | 9800 | 10240 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 114.20 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 * | 1153 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3435 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 104 | 113 | 89.50 | 86.00 |
(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter. We also try to tweet the daily key reversal levels every day.
Good luck, Danny
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