LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Key reversal levels for week of March 24, 2014

Posted by Danny on March 22, 2014

Comments for this week (the key reversal tables are below) :

* Weekly momentum (MoM) is turning down again for the Nasdaq. May have peaked for a while. This is an important signal as the Nasdaq has been one of the strongest markets in the recent months. Wait and see whether MoM can pick up again. If not then look for a test of its weekly key reversal level, currently at 3962.

* Weekly MoM is turning down for bonds (TLT) and oil (CL) as well. These markets are sputtering and need to pick up steam if their recent rallies are to continue.

* On the daily level the Nasdaq is holding only just above its key reversal level, so could go into declining mode any day. Watching this market carefully as it can easily drag other world markets lower.

* I am also watching the $EURUSD very closely. Since it touched its Top1 target at 1.3950 the euro has dropped back into declining mode on Thursday and is not far above its weekly key reversal level anymore. If it closes below 1.3598 next week then the euro will go fully bearish and that would probably have consequences for gold and oil prices.

* Gold has seen a similar drop and is testing its daily key reversal level right now. Likely to decline further if the daily key doesn’t hold. Those declines were nicely indicated by the MoM indicator turning down, as I pointed out in my mid-week comments on Tuesday. When a market has had a sizable rally, it is always a good idea to take (partial) profits as soon as MoM turns down.

* We have new Bottom1 targets for EURUSD at 1.3390 and for Oil at 91.85

* Our weekly key reversal levels for other world markets can be picked up here.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 22 stocks are bullish this week.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,276.79 3,962.35 6.89 63 38.44
S&P 500 1,866.52 1,781.86 3.83 68 31.78
Nikkei 14,224.23 15,183.66 -2.55 1 -0.21
FTSE 100 6,557.20 6,731.84 0.19 1 0.45
DAX 9,342.94 9,368.08 0.86 1 3.27
Bonds (TLT) 108.23 104.81 3.41 8 1.45
Gold (spot) 1,334.06 1,282.55 3.90 5 1.21
$EURUSD 1.3786 1.3598 2.52 34 3.79
Oil (CL) 99.46 97.24 2.39 5 -0.66

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

3/21/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,276.79 4,253.39 -0.06 3 -1.26 5
S&P 500 1,866.52 1,843.16 0.93 27 2.55 1
Nikkei 14,224.23 14,903.19 -4.88 4 -0.21 11
FTSE 100 6,557.20 6,698.38 -6.19 9 -1.98 28
DAX 9,342.94 9,427.12 -3.95 14 -1.17 12
Bonds (TLT) 108.23 106.74 2.01 7 1.43 6
Gold (spot) 1,334.06 1,322.16 0.84 50 6.90 2
$EURUSD 1.3786 1.3856 1.58 1 0.07 3
Oil (CL) 99.46 100.76 -3.96 7 1.39 8

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 * 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 91.85 * 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

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