Comments for this week (the key reversal tables are below) :
* The Nasdaq has continued its recent weakness and went into declining mode when it closed below its daily key reversal level last Monday. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones have been stronger and have not dropped below any key levels yet.
* The German DAX index has climbed back above its weekly key reversal level, so is now bullish again. But the move is suspect as weekly MoM remains to the downside, suggesting a possible false break out. We have to see whether this market shows proper follow through.
* As mentioned last week, the $EURUSD is a market to watch. We now see weekly MoM turn down for the euro, which adds to evidence that the next move for the euro will be down. See also the long term monthly euro chart I posted on twitter yesterday.
* Gold has continued to drop and now the weekly MoM is going down. Is likely to produce some dead cat bounce soon, but medium term it doesn’t look very good for gold right now and if the Euro weakens further it will also weigh on gold prices.
* Bonds continue to show strength and are now fully bullish on weekly and daily level. Probably set to test their long standing Top1 target at 111.80.
* Oil has turned bullish on the daily level, but its weekly MoM remains to the downside. This makes it questionable whether oil can build on its recent gains. Keep a stop loss near the daily key reversal level if you are long crude oil.
* Our weekly key reversal levels for other world markets can be picked up here.
* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 22 stocks are bullish this week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
***
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,155.76 | 3,969.98 | 5.74 | 64 | 34.53 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,857.62 | 1,785.01 | 3.92 | 69 | 31.16 | |
| Nikkei | 14,696.03 | 15,140.33 | -2.68 | 2 | 3.10 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,615.60 | 6,719.90 | -0.33 | 2 | 1.34 | |
| DAX | 9,587.19 | 9,088.71 | 0.56 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 109.37 | 105.13 | 3.63 | 9 | 2.51 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,294.90 | 1,282.81 | 3.59 | 6 | -1.76 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3750 | 1.3612 | 2.49 | 35 | 3.52 | |
| Oil (CL) | 101.67 | 97.37 | 2.23 | 6 | 1.55 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 28/03/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,155.76 | 4,287.34 | -5.01 | 4 | -2.28 | 7 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,857.62 | 1,845.24 | -0.29 | 32 | 2.06 | 2 | ||
| Nikkei | 14,696.03 | 14,793.72 | -2.77 | 9 | 3.10 | 12 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,615.60 | 6,675.16 | -2.52 | 14 | -1.10 | 12 | ||
| DAX | 9,587.19 | 9,297.12 | 2.03 | 2 | 1.68 | 5 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 109.37 | 107.64 | 5.46 | 12 | 2.50 | 1 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,294.90 | 1,334.13 | -5.36 | 4 | -1.04 | 7 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3750 | 1.3841 | -2.08 | 6 | -0.20 | 7 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 101.67 | 99.31 | 0.57 | 1 | 0.33 | 5 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4531 | 3797 | 3530 |
| S&P 500 | 1870 | 1950 | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7250 | 6230 | 5980 |
| DAX | 9800 | 10240 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 114.20 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 | 1153 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3390 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 104 | 113 | 91.85 | 86.00 |
(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Stay tuned, Danny
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