LT wave for April
Posted by Danny on March 31, 2014
Markets continue to act rather weak, despite being in a lunar green period. Especially the Nasdaq, which is now well below its recent peaks already. We have a few more days of lunar green period to go, but later this week we will start an eclipse red period. The red periods preceding a solar eclipse are more negative than normal, see the research I shared in this article: Eclipses and the Stock Market
Let’s have a look at the current Nasdaq chart (click for larger image):
The Nasdaq has dropped to an interesting support level as it is testing the bottom of a long trend channel that started in late 2012. We could see a dead cat bounce in the next couple of days, but I think the upcoming eclipse red period will see the Nasdaq drop out of this channel. That would push the Earl2 and MoM indicators to important lows.
The 4000 level is an obvious downside target, with 3800 as the next lower support zone.
Our LT wave chart for April doesn’t look very good either (click for larger image):
The LT wave for March correctly indicated the weakness for most of the month, but the expected rebound in the last week has been disappointing. That doesn’t bode well going forward. For April we see a positive start followed by another period of weakness with bottom values around April 10th and 19th. The final days of April look a bit stronger again.