Comments on the key levels for this week :
* The Nasdaq and the Nikkei tested their Bottom1 targets last week and bounced back strongly. For the Nikkei we now see weekly MoM turn up, the first major index to do so. This is a tentative sign that the recent “correction” may be over already. But we have to see if other markets follow. For shallow corrections it is fairly typical to see Mom turn back upwards from near the zero level.
* On the daily level the S&P 500 has switched into rally mode already, with the Nikkei, FTSE100 and DAX coming very close to their daily key reversal levels as well. The Nasdaq is still lagging but has picked up positive MoM. This means we could easily see several more markets going into rally mode next week, and we may see new all time highs fairly soon.
* For other world markets we still have a mostly bullish picture, and the MSCI world index is only a few % below its all time highs. Most markets have not participated in the recent Nasdaq sell-off.
* Bonds(TLT) were rejected at their Top1 target at 111.80. We have a next higher target at 114.20 if the rally continues. MoM is still to the upside for bonds, but will start to go down if TLT keeps getting rejected at that 111 target.
* Gold continues to be in a pullback. It must close the week above $1,282.91 to avoid another bearish episode which would probably push it towards its Bottom1 target at $1185.
* Meanwhile the Euro remains undecided near the 1.38 level versus the US dollar. Once the Euro moves it will probably drag gold and oil with it. Right now my indicators suggest that the next move for the Euro will be down. If so, then look for a strengthening dollar to become a drag on US stock prices as well.
* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week, up from 20 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
***
Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,095.52 | 3,975.87 | 0.64 | 67 | 32.58 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,864.85 | 1,791.14 | 2.81 | 72 | 31.67 | |
| Nikkei | 14,516.27 | 15,077.88 | -2.39 | 5 | 1.84 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,625.30 | 6,702.91 | -0.89 | 5 | 1.49 | |
| DAX | 9,409.71 | 9,122.06 | 0.56 | 3 | -2.21 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 110.05 | 106.10 | 4.07 | 12 | 3.15 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,289.90 | 1,282.91 | 1.70 | 9 | -2.14 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3805 | 1.3652 | 1.80 | 38 | 3.94 | |
| Oil (CL) | 103.37 | 98.14 | 2.31 | 9 | 3.25 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 17/04/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,095.52 | 4,192.48 | -6.00 | 18 | -3.69 | 8 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,864.85 | 1,842.06 | -2.49 | 1 | 0.17 | 5 | ||
| Nikkei | 14,516.27 | 14,588.49 | -4.36 | 8 | 0.56 | 12 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,625.30 | 6,652.60 | -1.65 | 7 | 0.52 | 11 | ||
| DAX | 9,409.71 | 9,483.73 | -3.65 | 4 | 1.74 | 7 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 110.05 | 109.06 | 5.92 | 8 | 0.94 | 1 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,289.90 | 1,319.16 | 0.46 | 2 | -0.97 | 7 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3805 | 1.3775 | 1.43 | 7 | -0.35 | 6 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 103.37 | 101.14 | 4.99 | 15 | 2.00 | 18 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4531 | 3975 | 3797 |
| S&P 500 | 1870 | 1950 | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15650 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7250 | 6230 | 5980 |
| DAX | 9800 | 10240 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 114.20 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 | 1185 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3390 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 104 | 113 | 91.85 | 86.00 |
(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Good luck, Danny
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