Comments on the key levels for this week :
* Major stock markets continue to show a rather mixed picture in the weekly key reversal levels. FTSE100 and Nikkei remains mildly bearish with MoM turning upwards, while the Nasdaq , S&P 500 and DAX are mildly bullish with MoM going down. This picture will eventually resolve one way or the other when we get the next major move in the market. For now the weekly keys do not tell us which way it will go. We are going sideways.
* On the daily level all covered indexes have upwards MoM, but the Nasdaq and Nikkei still fail to get back above their daily key reversal levels. The Bottom2 target for Nasdaq has been adjusted to 3742.
* In other world markets we see China turning bearish this week as it failed to stay above its weekly key reversal level. But MoM remains to the upside so this is a suspect sell signal that may be reversed quickly. Australia, Spain and Switzerland are switching to upside MoM, which suggest a continuation of their bull markets. So, most world markets continue to do fairly well.
* Bonds(TLT) keep trying to break above their Top1 target at 111.80. The next higher target is adjusted to 114.60 based on latest data. MoM is still to the upside for bonds, but will start to go down if TLT keeps getting rejected at that 111 target.
* Gold is showing some strength, but still needs a close above its daily key level at $1311.59 to get into bullish mode again.
* The Euro remains undecided near the 1.38 level.
* Oil has gone into bearish mode and its weekly MoM is turning down as well. A weekly close below $98.35 would turn crude oil fully bearish.
* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week, ubchanged from 23 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
***
Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,075.56 | 3,979.91 | -0.41 | 68 | 31.93 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,863.40 | 1,794.51 | 2.64 | 73 | 31.56 | |
| Nikkei | 14,429.26 | 15,036.75 | -2.27 | 6 | 1.23 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,685.70 | 6,705.90 | -0.73 | 6 | 2.42 | |
| DAX | 9,401.55 | 9,134.87 | 0.50 | 4 | -2.29 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.33 | 106.46 | 4.35 | 13 | 4.35 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,302.94 | 1,281.65 | 1.01 | 10 | -1.15 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3832 | 1.3671 | 1.68 | 39 | 4.14 | |
| Oil (CL) | 100.60 | 98.35 | 2.19 | 10 | 0.48 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 25/04/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,075.56 | 4,179.22 | -0.50 | 23 | -4.16 | 8 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,863.40 | 1,854.27 | 2.48 | 6 | 0.09 | 5 | ||
| Nikkei | 14,429.26 | 14,583.54 | 0.09 | 13 | -0.05 | 16 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,685.70 | 6,605.42 | 1.79 | 3 | 0.06 | 13 | ||
| DAX | 9,401.55 | 9,371.96 | 0.20 | 3 | -2.09 | 5 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.33 | 109.74 | 4.00 | 13 | 2.11 | 17 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,302.94 | 1,311.59 | -2.20 | 7 | 0.03 | 24 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3832 | 1.3783 | 0.43 | 12 | -0.16 | 21 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 100.60 | 102.62 | -0.11 | 0 | 0.00 | 35 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4531 | 3975 | 3742* |
| S&P 500 | 1870 | 1950 | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15650 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7250 | 6230 | 5980 |
| DAX | 9800 | 10240 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 114.60* | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 | 1185 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3390 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 104 | 109.80* | 91.85 | 86.00 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Good luck, Danny
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