Stocks started the week on a strong note, only to give back those gains by the end of week. Yet another sign that the peak is in? Or just a pause before we head higher again?
Here is the current S&P 500 chart (click for larger image):
The S&P has held up much better than the Nasdaq and remains inside its long term trend channel. Technically, the Earl2 (orange line) is tentatively turning up from a shallow bottom, but the faster Earl (blue line) appears to be turning down from a rather weak peak. The MoM is neutral near zero. So, it’s a mixed bag. We have another week of lunar green period to go, so chances are the market will try the upside again. If the 1900 hurdle proves too much of an obstacle again then it can go down quite sharply in the next lunar red period starting next week.
Many market observers are expecting a correction, and of course we will inevitably get one sooner or later. But I think that correction will be milder than most people seem to expect, and not a major bear market at this point. My cycles and indicators keep pointing to a summer decline, probably starting in May. We will know the decline is on when my weekly key reversal levels give way. Right now our line in the sand is 3979.91 for the Nasdaq and 1794.52 for the S&P 500 (on a weekly closing basis).
Of course, the rumblings in Ukraine are an ongoing wildcard. If things deteriorate further it can push stocks lower, or it can also cause more money to flow out of Europe and into US markets, causing them to go up suddenly. Basically, Russia is accusing the West of interfering in Ukraine, and the West is accusing Russia of interfering in Ukraine. And you know what? I think both are right on that point.
Good luck,
Danny
LunaticTrader 