LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Key reversal levels for week of May 5, 2014

Posted by Danny on May 4, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* Major stock markets have put in a strong week. The FTSE100 has broken above its weekly key reversal level and is now bullish again. This leaves Nikkei as the only major market that is still bearish on the weekly level. Meanwhile weekly MoM is turning up for S&P 500 and DAX. The overall picture has improved significantly from a few weeks ago. But we need to see follow through in the coming weeks.

* On the daily level momentum (MoM) remains to the upside for all covered indexes, with FTSE100 standing out as the strongest market for the moment. The UK market is once again testing its Top1 target at 6800. Maybe it can break out this time and then we can set sights on the Top2 target at 7250.

* In other world markets we have Mexico turning bullish, while Vietnam is going bearish on the weekly level.

* Bonds(TLT) have found a second breath and are pushing above their Top1 target at 111.80. That means we can start looking for the Top2 target at 114.60. Our system has remained bullish on bonds for 14 weeks and is now proven right again with this push to new highs for the year.

* Gold appeared to breaking down but made a nice comeback on Friday. This has kept it above its weekly key level, and on the daily level MoM is turning up. This is promising, but gold still needs a daily close above $1307.29 to leave the recent correction behind.

* The Euro remains undecided near the 1.38 level. We may not see any significant move until the EU elections by the end of May. I will be suprised if the Euro still trades at 1.38 by the end of June.

* Oil remains weak, but as long as it stays above its weekly key level at $98.38 it is only a pause or correction in an ongoing bull market.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week, ubchanged from 23 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,123.90 3,981.47 -1.07 69 33.50
S&P 500 1,881.14 1,797.36 2.71 74 32.82
Nikkei 14,457.51 14,984.42 -2.18 7 1.43
FTSE 100 6,822.40 6,578.32 -0.15 0 0.00
DAX 9,556.02 9,149.23 0.60 5 -0.68
Bonds (TLT) 112.71 106.82 4.74 14 5.64
Gold (spot) 1,299.24 1,280.82 0.46 11 -1.44
$EURUSD 1.3871 1.3685 1.64 40 4.43
Oil (CL) 99.76 98.38 1.73 11 -0.36

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

2/05/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,123.90 4,158.85 -0.04 28 -3.03 8
S&P 500 1,881.14 1,862.82 2.86 11 1.04 1
Nikkei 14,457.51 14,535.23 -0.05 17 0.15 16
FTSE 100 6,822.40 6,660.31 6.04 8 2.10 1
DAX 9,556.02 9,409.27 2.08 7 -0.48 1
Bonds (TLT) 112.71 110.18 3.57 18 3.38 1
Gold (spot) 1,299.24 1,307.29 -1.29 12 -0.25 24
$EURUSD 1.3871 1.3794 1.50 17 0.12 5
Oil (CL) 99.76 101.89 -3.98 5 -0.73 7

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3742
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.60 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 109.80 91.85 86.00

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

 

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