Comments on the key levels for this week :
* No changes in our weekly key reversal levels for major stock indexes.
* On the daily level we have some flip-flopping going on. Nasdaq and S&P 500 have joined the Nikkei by going into bearish mode with downward momentum (MoM). The DAX and FTSE100 remain in bullish mode, but also with downward MoM.
* In other world markets we have a stronger picture with most emerging markets in ongoing bull market.
* Bonds (TLT) continue to rally and have come within a few nickels of our Top1 target at 114.60. The Top2 target is at 115.70, so I expect some serious resistance just above the current levels. I you bought bonds when they turned bullish 16 weeks ago, I would look to take some profits off the table.
* Gold holds just above its weekly key level and has entered rally mode on the daily level, but without much conviction so far. Its next major move also depends on which way the $EURUSD goes (see below). This chart shows why a big move is in the making for gold.
* The Euro has closed below its weekly key level and is now bearish on the weekly level. This is a major change after 41 weeks of bullish status. If the new trend continues we can start eyeing the Bottom targets at 1.3390 and 1.2870, and it would probably push gold prices down as well. If the Euro recovers swiftly and gets back above 1.3844 (weekly close) then the odds reverse.
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 24 stocks are bullish this week, unchanged from last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
***
Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,090.59 | 3,985.90 | -1.61 | 71 | 32.42 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,877.86 | 1,804.13 | 2.98 | 76 | 32.59 | |
| Nikkei | 14,096.59 | 14,887.69 | -2.27 | 9 | -1.11 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,855.80 | 6,632.81 | 1.46 | 2 | 0.49 | |
| DAX | 9,629.10 | 9,186.92 | 1.23 | 7 | 0.07 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 113.54 | 107.48 | 5.09 | 16 | 6.42 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,293.25 | 1,280.14 | -0.35 | 13 | -1.89 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3693 | 1.3844 | 0.98 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Oil (CL) | 101.58 | 98.58 | 0.89 | 13 | 1.46 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 5/16/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,090.59 | 4,129.14 | -0.50 | 1 | 0.50 | 7 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,877.86 | 1,885.74 | 1.16 | 1 | 0.36 | 3 | ||
| Nikkei | 14,096.59 | 14,416.26 | -1.23 | 25 | -2.35 | 27 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,855.80 | 6,754.43 | 5.28 | 17 | 2.60 | 2 | ||
| DAX | 9,629.10 | 9,522.46 | 3.62 | 17 | 0.28 | 18 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 113.54 | 111.20 | 3.98 | 28 | 4.38 | 1 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,293.25 | 1,287.30 | -0.09 | 2 | -0.95 | 5 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3693 | 1.3821 | -4.70 | 5 | -0.39 | 11 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 101.58 | 100.39 | 1.45 | 3 | -0.32 | 5 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4531 | 3975 | 3742 |
| S&P 500 | 1870 | 1950 | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15650 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7250 | 6230 | 5980 |
| DAX | 9800 | 10240 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.60 | 115.70* | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 | 1185 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3390 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 104 | 109.80 | 94.60 | 91.85 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Good luck, Danny
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