Comments for this week :
* In the weekly key reversal levels for major stock indexes we have momentum (MoM) turning up for the Nasdaq and Nikkei. This means all major markets are trying to push higher again.
* On the daily level markets have turned to bullish mode as well. It is always hard to tell how far a move will carry. Best is to go with the flow and respond when the situation changes again.
* In other world markets the Hong Kong and Russian indexes are turning bullish. This leaves only a few countries with bearish setups.
* Bonds (TLT) are hesitating since they reached their Top1 target at 114.60. Money may start flowing back into stocks and that would weigh on bond prices going forward.
* Gold is not moving at all recently. It remains mildy bullish in our key reversal system, but it wouldn’t take much to turn it fully bearish. A big move is likely so I am watching the key levels carefully on this one.
* The Euro has gone fully bearish. Needs a weekly close above 1.3829 to get in the bullish camp again.
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 25 stocks are bullish this week, up from 24 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
***
Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,185.81 | 3,990.47 | -1.25 | 72 | 35.50 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,900.53 | 1,807.91 | 3.23 | 77 | 34.19 | |
| Nikkei | 14,462.17 | 14,852.38 | -2.17 | 10 | 1.46 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,815.80 | 6,653.81 | 2.09 | 3 | -0.10 | |
| DAX | 9,768.01 | 9,205.97 | 1.75 | 8 | 1.52 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 112.70 | 107.89 | 5.16 | 17 | 5.64 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,292.41 | 1,280.24 | -0.60 | 14 | -1.95 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3628 | 1.3829 | 0.31 | 1 | -0.45 | |
| Oil (CL) | 104.35 | 98.86 | 0.99 | 14 | 4.22 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 23/05/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,185.81 | 4,091.34 | 1.34 | 2 | 1.20 | 1 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,900.53 | 1,874.22 | 0.97 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | ||
| Nikkei | 14,462.17 | 14,148.00 | -1.26 | 1 | 0.35 | 13 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,815.80 | 6,767.96 | 1.25 | 22 | 2.01 | 2 | ||
| DAX | 9,768.01 | 9,570.23 | 2.33 | 22 | 1.73 | 17 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 112.70 | 111.56 | 2.52 | 33 | 3.61 | 2 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,292.41 | 1,286.13 | -0.41 | 7 | -1.01 | 6 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3628 | 1.3769 | -5.37 | 10 | -0.87 | 27 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 104.35 | 101.19 | 5.11 | 8 | 2.39 | 1 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4531 | 3975 | 3742 |
| S&P 500 | 1870 | 1950 | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15650 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7110 * | 6230 | 5980 |
| DAX | 9800 | 10240 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.60 | 115.70 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 | 1185 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3390 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 104 | 109.80 | 94.60 | 91.85 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Good luck, Danny
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