LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Key reversal levels for week of June 9, 2014

Posted by Danny on June 8, 2014

Comments for this week :

* Another strong week for stocks and the Nikkei has finally joined the other markets by turning bullish on the weekly level. All major indexes remain with upside weekly MoM.

* In the daily key levels most markets are still going strong as well. The DAX and the FTSE100 are hesitating a bit near obvious resistance levels, but all markets are showing nice gains for the recent rally.

* In other world markets the Russel 2000 index and Vietnam have turned bullish. This leaves gold stocks and China as the only remaining bear markets in my list.

* As I continue to repeat: go with the flow. There is no point in standing in front of a train. The only indicator that really matters is “price”, all the rest is entertainment designed to scare you out of good positions. Bullish sentiment, VIX, and so on.., are all indicators that continue to get it wrong until they get it right eventually. Keep your eye on the ball, and that is “price”.

* Bonds (TLT) were rejected at their Top1 target at 114.60, and have fallen into declining mode on the daily key levels. If TLT gets a weekly close below 108.53 then bonds will be fully bearish.

* Gold tries to muster some strength. But it’s only another bear market rally unless gold manages to break above its key reversal levels.

* The Euro has stabilized and is close to going into rally mode on the daily level. We still see no clear direction for the Euro.

* Oil price is stable as well. A move towards $110 is in the cards if oil can crack above its Top1 target at $104.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 28 stocks are bullish this week, up from 26 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,321.40 4,012.60 0.95 74 39.89
S&P 500 1,949.44 1,820.42 4.78 79 37.64
Nikkei 15,077.24 14,336.59 -0.91 0 0.00
FTSE 100 6,858.20 6,694.59 2.87 5 0.52
DAX 9,987.19 9,272.70 3.62 10 3.80
Bonds (TLT) 111.59 108.53 5.05 19 4.60
Gold (spot) 1,252.92 1,314.44 -1.66 1 0.30
$EURUSD 1.3640 1.3789 -1.10 3 -0.36
Oil (CL) 102.66 99.44 1.25 16 2.54

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

6/6/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,321.40 4,179.97 5.99 11 4.48 1
S&P 500 1,949.44 1,904.08 6.89 11 3.24 1
Nikkei 15,077.24 14,613.62 8.55 11 4.62 1
FTSE 100 6,858.20 6,790.12 0.52 31 2.64 2
DAX 9,987.19 9,794.28 4.76 32 4.01 2
Bonds (TLT) 111.59 112.90 -1.79 3 -0.15 7
Gold (spot) 1,252.92 1,273.24 -5.16 8 -0.93 12
$EURUSD 1.3640 1.3694 -2.51 20 -0.78 12
Oil (CL) 102.66 101.76 0.37 17 0.74 2

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3742
S&P 500 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7110 6230 5980
DAX 10240 10450 * 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 114.60 115.70 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3366 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 109.24 94.60 91.85

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

 

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2 Responses to “Key reversal levels for week of June 9, 2014”

  1. robert said

    Yes i like the comment that price is the key to follow. To me that is the hardest concept to continually follow. I also look at price rate of change. I only enter long positions using a market proxy qqq when the following conditions are true:

    ind(qqq,roc(99)) > 0
    ind(qqq,roc(10)) > 0
    ind(qqq,roc(5)) > ind(qqq,roc(5)) 1 day ago

    I have backtested this going back to 2000 and it works well.

    • Danny said

      Hi Robert,

      That looks like a viable strategy. Basically you buy when prices are going up both on longer and shorter term. And with the 3rd rule you try to buy when a stock is just starting to accelerate to the upside.
      Thanks for sharing.

      Danny

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