Comments for this week :
* Stock markets are hesitating after the recent series of new highs. On the weekly level the bull markets are intact, but in the daily key reversal levels we now see all major indexes with downward MoM, and the FTSE100 has fallen into bearish mode. This can be considered a first warning sign.
* The S&P 500 reached our Top1 target at 1950, as we tweeted live, and failed to break above it. It’s hard to tell whether this will be just a short term peak, or a level that we won’t see back for while. Either way, we now have an interesting new Top2 target for the S&P 500 at 2031
* In other world markets the Chinese markets is grabbing upward MoM and coming very close to going into bullish mode. Most markets remain well above their weekly key reversal level.
* Bonds (TLT) are trying to get into rally mode again. TLT needs a daily close above 112.54 to do so.
* Gold has strengthened further. A weekly close above $1311.12 would turn gold fully bullish, and would probably give us a good trending move. Keeping an eye on it.
* The Euro is still weak, but is not giving up too much territory. MoM is to the downside, but as long as the Euro hovers near 1.35 it wouldn’t take much to turn things around.
* Oil has finally cracked above its Top1 target at $104, so now the path is open for a climb towards 109-110, where our next price targets are.
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 26 stocks are bullish this week, down from 28 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
***
Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,310.65 | 4,028.87 | 2.28 | 75 | 39.54 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,936.16 | 1,827.71 | 5.53 | 80 | 36.70 | |
| Nikkei | 15,097.84 | 14,386.16 | 0.04 | 1 | -0.70 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,777.90 | 6,704.26 | 2.85 | 6 | -0.65 | |
| DAX | 9,912.87 | 9,305.46 | 4.33 | 11 | 3.02 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 112.15 | 108.72 | 4.46 | 20 | 5.12 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,276.85 | 1,311.12 | -1.96 | 2 | 2.21 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3540 | 1.3773 | -1.69 | 4 | -1.09 | |
| Oil (CL) | 106.91 | 99.76 | 1.79 | 17 | 6.78 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 6/13/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,310.65 | 4,227.45 | 6.28 | 16 | 4.22 | 2 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,936.16 | 1,918.69 | 5.63 | 16 | 2.54 | 2 | ||
| Nikkei | 15,097.84 | 14,747.45 | 6.30 | 16 | 4.77 | 2 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,777.90 | 6,843.54 | 0.28 | 0 | 0.00 | 35 | ||
| DAX | 9,912.87 | 9,852.69 | 2.63 | 37 | 3.24 | 2 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 112.15 | 112.54 | -3.35 | 8 | 0.35 | 8 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,276.85 | 1,257.63 | -0.48 | 1 | 0.31 | 9 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3540 | 1.3662 | -3.63 | 25 | -1.51 | 11 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 106.91 | 102.50 | 5.00 | 22 | 4.91 | 1 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4531 | 3975 | 3742 |
| S&P 500 | 1950 | 2031 * | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15650 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7110 | 6230 | 5980 |
| DAX | 10240 | 10450 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.60 | 115.70 | 108.25 * | 102 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 | 1160 * | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3366 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.24 | 109.97 * | 94.60 | 91.85 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Stay tuned, Danny
LunaticTrader 