Comments for this week :
* Continuing bull markets in all major indexes. If the FTSE100 rises a little bit next week we will have a fully bullish picture for stocks again. When and where will it end? Nobody knows. Keeping an eye on the key reversal levels and MoM indicators will tell us when it is time to get out.
* In other world markets we have China as the only remaining bearish market. Gold stocks have also turned the corner and joined the bullish camp this week.
* Bonds (TLT) are stagnating. Can go either way at this point.
* Gold has turned fully bullish, and we can start looking for a possible move towards its Top1 target at $1424.
* The Euro is holding on to the 1.35 level and gave a speculative buy signal last Tuesday when daily MoM turned up. Euro may surprise to the upside and would probably pull gold up with it.
* Oil is digesting recent gains. A further climb towards 109-110 is in the cards as long as oil holds above its daily key reversal level.
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 26 stocks are bullish this week, unchanged from 26 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
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Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,368.04 | 4,045.86 | 3.61 | 76 | 41.40 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,962.87 | 1,835.21 | 6.26 | 81 | 38.59 | |
| Nikkei | 15,349.42 | 14,434.68 | 1.10 | 2 | 0.95 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,825.20 | 6,709.16 | 2.59 | 7 | 0.04 | |
| DAX | 9,987.24 | 9,339.75 | 4.83 | 12 | 3.80 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 108.87 | 3.82 | 21 | 4.79 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,314.27 | 1,269.95 | -1.72 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3596 | 1.3756 | -2.13 | 5 | -0.68 | |
| Oil (CL) | 106.83 | 100.29 | 2.41 | 18 | 6.70 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 6/20/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,368.04 | 4,256.75 | 5.18 | 21 | 5.61 | 17 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,962.87 | 1,927.11 | 4.55 | 21 | 3.96 | 1 | ||
| Nikkei | 15,349.42 | 14,844.17 | 4.60 | 21 | 6.51 | 1 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,825.20 | 6,830.73 | -2.57 | 5 | 0.70 | 24 | ||
| DAX | 9,987.24 | 9,880.09 | 0.83 | 42 | 4.01 | 1 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 112.48 | -1.07 | 13 | 0.04 | 8 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,314.27 | 1,264.53 | 4.65 | 6 | 3.25 | 1 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3596 | 1.3646 | -1.52 | 30 | -1.10 | 12 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 106.83 | 103.59 | 6.25 | 27 | 4.83 | 2 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4531 | 3975 | 3742 |
| S&P 500 | 1950 | 2031 | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15650 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7110 | 6677 * | 6230 |
| DAX | 10240 | 10450 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.60 | 115.70 | 108.25 | 102 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 | 1160 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3403 * | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.24 | 109.97 | 94.60 | 91.85 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Stay tuned, Danny
LunaticTrader 