At the breaking point

US markets tried to rally last week, but didn’t succeed to print new highs, with the exception of the Dow Industrials. The market appears heavy, but hasn’t really broken down yet, so a further grind to marginally higher highs is still possible. Let’s have a look at the S&P 500 (click for larger image):

S&P 500

The market is right a breaking point. A narrow 3 month up trend channel supports the market at current levels, but any drop below 1950 would not bode well. On the upside a +2000 print remains possible, and would become inevitable if this narrow trend channel is to hold up for another month.
Meanwhile my technical indicators continue to point downwards, and the weekly MoM for the S&P has now turned down as well. So, this is not a setup I want to buy or stay heavily long. At best we are in a sideways correction, but the risk for a sudden downside acceleration is quite high. We have been in a higher highs and higher lows pattern since mid April. Once that sequence ends the S&P will drop 100 points quickly imo, much like it did in January.

Good luck,


By Dan

Author of LunaticTrader and Reversal Levels method. Stock market forecasts based on proprietary indicators, seasonal patterns and moon cycles.


  1. I am should wait finísh agoust,around 27-29 before Buy stocks,Spx can hard down in agoust maybe 5-8%.Maybe this is a top Finally And stockmarket bear began,very very + sentiment is dangerous.

  2. Danny… I see you over on Scutify now… thanks for all your posts and updates. Incisive. Clean. Balanced. And your rationale seems quite logical… well thought out… with a nod to the indeterminate. Outstanding…

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