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LT wave for February

Posted by Dan on February 2, 2015

US stock markets are coiling just below their recent record highs. We still don’t see a decisive move (up or down), but as I pointed out in my weekly outlook, only 14 Dow Industrials components remain in bullish mode and that is a serious warning sign. Let’s have a look at the S&P 500 chart (click image to enlarge it):

S&P 500

Even though we are seeing warning signs, the market has not really broken down. The S&P is once again at major support near the 2000 level. If it heads further down then it will go to the grey area in the chart fairly quickly, so 1940 or lower. We remain in a lunar red period for the rest of the week, so this is the perfect time to do it.
If the S&P holds on to the 2000 level this week, then it would be a sign of strength and set us up for a surprise to the upside. Then prepare for another violent move upwards to 2100+ in March.

The LT wave for February paints a possible path forwards (click image to enlarge it):

LT wave

The LT wave did well in January, correctly pointing to a weak start and a strong period until the 23rd. Weakness in the last week also panned out nicely.
For February the LT wave projects a weak start followed by strength until the 10th or 11th. Another peak appears around the 21st. A dip to low values on the 14th and 15th falls on a weekend, so market may climb through it. The last week of the month is again weak.
Bear in mind that the LT wave is experimental, so don’t bet the bank on it.

Good luck,

2 Responses to “LT wave for February”

  1. JoChieh Chuang said

    Danny: Have you published 2015 forecast yet. Thanks. Enjoy reading your article.

    Sent from my iPhone


    • Danny said

      I do not plan on making a 2015 forecast like I have been doing for 13 years. My market forecasts are now given out throughout the year, which allows me to play “closer on the ball” so to speak.
      If you are following my blog or twitter then you will get all my forecasts.


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