Still cautious

Stock markets did better than I expected last week. US indexes are once again climbing towards their recent highs. But I am still cautious and keep standing aside. One doesn’t need to be invested at all times, and taking a little holiday once in a while is never a bad thing, if only to recharge our investor batteries. The outlook is too uncertain for now, so I don’t see much of an edge to trade in either direction. Maybe that will change by next week, so let’s have a little look at the S&P 500 chart (click image to enlarge it):

The S&P is back above 2100, but still short of its recent highs. A climb to new highs would give us more clarity. A failure to climb to new highs would give us a more alarming type of clarity. My technical indicators have improved, but also not massively so. We got a very shallow bottom in the Earl and Mom, and the slower Earl2 seems to be painting a shallow bottom as well. Shallow bottoms are a good thing if they mark bullish divergences, but that’s not the case. So this is not necessarily an indication of underlying strength. We have to wait and see how the market comes out of this sideways period that started in November last year. And that’s why I stay cautious at this point.

Good luck, and keep an eye on the reversal levels I post on Twitter and Scutify every day. That’s where I share some day to day comments and charts. So, follow me to get latest info. I don’t tweet very often, so I won’t flood your timeline with messages.

Danny