Today we revisit the Dow 32000 scenario that I have updated from time to time since the summer of 2013. The Dow has not kept up with the 1920s in recent months, but the Fed has also not started raising rates yet. What will happen when they do? More on that below, first we take our look at the S&P 500 (click image to enlarge it):
The market is climbing again. The Earl and MoM indicators are going up, but the slower Earl2 (orange Line) is still high and going down. This suggests that the market needs more time to digest the October rally. I am looking for the S&P to stay sideways in the 2000-2100 range for several more weeks.
The last time we looked at the Dow vs 1920s chart was back in May. I have updated the chart and here is what we have now (click image to enlarge it):
The Dow needed to climb to 20000+ to catch up with the 1920s trajectory. That clearly hasn’t happened. Of course that doesn’t mean we will not get any blow off rally to end the bull market that started in 2009. In the 1920s the final parabolic move didn’t start until the Fed started raising interest rates. Sooner or later we are going to find out if that repeats itself this time.
Why 2015 Might Be Like 1937 for Stocks – November 25, 2015
DJIA – 1937