LT wave for January

The last trading days of the year are showing a light upward bias, as they typically do. It is usually hard to read something in days with very light trading, so we will probably have to wait for next week to see where stocks are going next. Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart (click image to enlarge it):

The Nasdaq is back above 5000. The Earl and MoM indicators are going up, but the slower Earl2 is still going down. Major support just below 5000 (dashed grey line) has been tested three times in the recent months and has held nicely so far. As long as that remains the case the setup favors further gains once the Earl2 turns up, with good potential for new all time highs in the first months of 2016. A drop below the December lows would invalidate the bullish scenario, and if that happens the outlook would worsen quickly.

The LT wave for December was far from perfect but it correctly indicated the weakness in the middle of the month. For January the LT wave shows a similar pattern (click image to enlarge it):

The first days of the month look strong, but then the LT wave suggests downside pressure until the 21st, followed by a positive tendency in the final week. The highest reading of the month comes on the 2nd and the 29th, with the lowest LT wave reading on the 19th.