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To fear or not to fear

Posted by Dan on June 13, 2016

Markets keep hesitating and a pullback seems to be starting. Nothing unexpected.

Meanwhile the official media keeps rehashing the “Brexit fear” meme ad nauseam, and that theme will probably dominate the financial news for the next few weeks. Whenever the FTSE 100 or Pound is down it gets conveniently blamed on “Brexit fear”. And whenever they are up something else gets the credit. Meanwhile they forget to mention that British Pound and stocks are simply flat since March, just like most other markets in the world.
To fear or not to fear, that’s always the question… Remember Buffett’s “be greedy when other are fearful”. With all that fear talk, as if the sky will come down if a country leaves the EU, this must be a great time to be greedy…

Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily)  9_29_2014 - 6_10_2016

A new lunar red period has started and stocks have turned lower after bumping into overhead resistance just below 5000. More downside action looks likely for the coming weeks, as both the Earl and MoM indicators are dropping fast and nowhere near bottom territory.
The 4800 level is the first reasonable support level, but it remains to be seen if that will halt the slide. Maybe it won’t if desperate eurocrats keep turning on the fear faucets. And that could set us up with a great buying opportunity towards the end of the month. So I would be patient here.

2 Responses to “To fear or not to fear”

  1. Danny, do you think we bounce into FOMC? thanks

    • Danny said

      I don’t know. I really don’t.
      My cycles (as well as LT wave) point down for coming week, so I would go with that.

      News items like Fed meetings etcetera are not part of my method.
      I have never found a way to benefit from fomc expectations, so I think a trader is better off if he trades as if they don’t exist.

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