LT wave for December
Posted by Danny on November 28, 2016
Stocks have kept going up and the Nasdaq is reaching the 5400 level, as we suggested it would in our post two weeks ago. So, what’s next? Let’s have a look at the S&P 500 chart:
We stay in a lunar green period for the rest of the week, so we can prepare for some kind of top in the coming days.
Technically the S&P 500 is facing several overhead resistance levels between 2220 and 2300. I don’t think we are going to race straight through them, but of course I could be wrong.
My Earl indicator (blue line) has turned down already, and the MoM is entering the “euphoric” +8 zone. As you can see in the chart MoM reaching +8 often marks major peaks, which are typically followed by a significant pullback or by several months of sideways churning. MoM reaching -8 typically marks tradeable bottoms. Nothing is perfect but this is something that works pretty persistently in any market. MoM indicator for various markets and stocks is posted on my Twitter every day.
On the plus side the slower Earl2 (orange line) is still climbing healthily and appears in no mood to turn down already. This could be enough to hold up the market into year’s end. It makes it more likely that we will get sideways action with only marginal new highs being printed in December. So, that is my current base scenario.
Let’s also have a look at the LT wave for December:
The wave did quite well for November. The timing was not perfect as the expected low came a few days earlier than the wave suggested. But of course we can conveniently blame that on the US elections. The overall pattern worked out nicely with expected weakness early on and a positive bias for the second half of November. For December the pattern is not so outspoken as it hovers close to neutral with small swings up and down. The longer average (yellow) peaks out in the first week and then goes more or less flat. There is a slightly weak period in the second week and another weak period comes around Christmas when markets will be mostly closed. The middle of the month and the final days look a bit stronger.
As always, remember this LT wave is experimental and doesn’t rely on any market data, so use it wisely.