Markets had a good week and the Nasdaq is close to new all time highs already. The S&P 500 has been a bit weaker. The recent lunar green period has ended with a 14 point gain for Nasdaq. Not a big gain, but the lunar cycle seems to be getting back to its normal rhythm after a long period of “divergences”. Let’s have a look at the S&P 500 chart before discussing the LT wave for April:
The market tested important support levels and veered back up. That’s a positive and it has printed bottoms in my Earl and MoM indicators, but the slower Earl2 (orange line) is still headed lower. A pattern of lower highs and lower lows appears on the chart and that’s something we haven’t seen for a while. The thing to watch in the current upswing is whether it can challenge the March 1 highs or not. A clear push above 2400 would tell us the bull run is ongoing.
The LT wave had an almost perfect month in March and here is how it continues for April:
The up and down swings corresponded very nicely to the expected weaker and stronger periods in March and if the LT wave keeps performing well then the current period of strength can continue until the 10th or 11th. Then there is projected weakness until the 23rd, followed by a more positive final week.
There will be a major high value in the wave on the 8th, but that’s a weekend day so any related highs would probably come on the Friday before or the Monday after. If that is the case then it will be interesting to see if the market can reach new records. A failure to do so would indicate that the path of least resistance is shifting down.
The lowest LT wave values for the month come on 22nd and 23rd, which are also weekend days. If the market falls below the March lows around that time it would also tell us that a more serious correction is underway.
For new readers, please remember that the LT wave is experimental and a good month doesn’t mean the next month will be good too. So, don’t bet the farm on it.