LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

LT wave for December 2019

Posted by Danny on December 2, 2019

The LT wave has not worked all that well in recent months. That pattern continued in November. In a one way market there is of course not much room for short term cycles to show up.

Here is what happened in November and the LT wave projection for December:

ltwaveDec2019

November started with a few unexpected strong up days and then stayed rather flat until the middle of the month. Expected weakness didn’t really show up. In the subsequent strong period the S&P pushed above the 3100 barrier and went on to reach 3150 in the final trading days.

For December the wave projects some mild weakness in the first days, followed by a rather neutral period until the 14th. The second half looks stronger again but a quick dip is projected around the 23rd. Whether that will mean something in the usually thin trading around xmas remains to be seen.

Good luck.

2 Responses to “LT wave for December 2019”

  1. Daniel said

    Hi Danny, Thank you for your response. Although it was a general response about years and not months in particular, it’s a relief to know my forecasting method is somehow accurate but under a bad year like 2019 I can not do better than what I did. As to be Specific I been conducting a strict study of stock symbol NAK (copper mining) for over 25+ months. This year I was sharpening LT and my system and achieved the following forecast (+30 days prior to forecast) accuracy scores: MAR=70% APR=53% MAY=82% JUN=65% (JULY & AUG=NA) SEP=77% OCT=70% & NOV=25%. December is also forecast and ready to be tabulated since today is Dec 2nd 2019. NAK RED DAYS IN DEC: 2,3,4,5,6,26,27,30,31 GREEN: 9,10,11,12,13,16,17,18,19,20 NEUTRAL: (signals reflect Dojis or too close to call RED or GREEN) 23,24. This is not too far away from your current forecast. Mine is strictly for NAK using NAK past data (+900 days performance under LT) After November were performance was below expectation (Minimum 60%+ to call it accurate) I am hoping for a better score. Hopefully December signals will deliver the probabilities. I also started to follow another stock HUSA (oil) In the case of HUSA the accuracy results were: SEP=55% OCT=65% & NOV=60%. As usual best regards! Daniel (I do have graphics/charts if you like to see them send me an email I can send visuals, Thanks)

    • Danny said

      Hi Daniel,
      You seem to be referring to the comments in this post: https://lunatictrader.com/2019/12/01/outlook-for-december-2/
      I cannot comments about specifics for individual stocks, but bear in mind that copper miners or oil stocks may not have a very good correlation with the general index. So, you will need to study if and how they go with the lunar cycles.
      And to have any statistical validity you need a minimum of 200 observations, so 25 months is not enough. You will need at least 4 years of data, and 10 or more is better. The red and green periods for S&P 500 were based on almost 60 years of data, and then you can be more confident that the cyclical tendencies have shown up through many cycles and do not just come from a few big outliers.
      As for the “accuracy scores” you share here. More important than win/loss % is the amount that is gained in the winners versus the losers. If the wins are more than twice as big as the average losses then you don’t need a 60% win rate.

      Danny

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