LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Outlook for week of June 26

Posted by Danny on June 25, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

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Outlook for week of June 19

Posted by Danny on June 18, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

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Get ready for the August eclipse

Posted by Danny on June 14, 2017

Despite some air pockets the US stock indexes keep looking up. The recent lunar red period produced a 35 point loss for the Nasdaq and we have started a new green period. There will be total solar eclipse over the USA in August and it will probably get plenty media attention. So, we will have a good look later on in this article but first I want to share the current S&P chart:

^SP500 (Daily) 8_31_2015 - 6_13_2017

This market stays in a nice channel since the early 2016 corrections. S&P 500 is currently in the middle of the range and trying to decide whether it wants to visit the upper or lower boundary next.
The Earl indicator (blue line) has turned down, but this has only produced a sideways pause so far. The slower Earl2 (orange line) is climbing again after some hesitation. This suggests a continuing rally until we see Earl2 top out again.

Bullish participation had been weak in recent months but is now improving:

spx

369 S&P stocks in bullish mode is the highest since early March. In healthy market advances the number of bullish stocks typically climbs above 400 (80%), like it did in February and December. If the number of bullish stocks falls back below 300 (60%) then the rally will be on hold. But as long as that doesn’t happen we better assume higher highs coming up. I keep monitoring this stat and you can find it in my weekly outlook posts on reversallevels.com every Sunday.

So what’s up with that eclipse? Well, on August 21st there will be a total solar eclipse crossing the US from coast to coast:

path-760
(source: https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar/2017-august-21)

Before you stash away extra sugar, water and canned tuna and sell all your stocks, remember that this has happened before and you would not be able to pinpoint those events on a long term chart of the markets unless you knew the dates. The most recent occasions were 26 February 1979 and 8 June 1918. Nothing unusual happened.

Historically, stocks markets actually perform slightly better than average in the weeks around a solar eclipse. See my old article: Eclipses and the stock market. So, if come August the market is still setting new records then some commentators may start pointing to this eclipse as the reason for a crash. Sure, there may be a market decline in September or October, but that doesn’t mean it would have anything to do with this eclipse.
I would rather watch this chart from 1987, exactly 30 years ago. Markets climbed in the first months of the year, then paused March to May and climbed to new highs in June to peak out in late August. The price action so far this year happens to be identical:

spx1987

If we reach a major peak in August then I would expect it to come with significant bearish divergences and new investors’ enthusiasm pushing out doomsayers.

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Outlook for week of June 12

Posted by Danny on June 11, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Outlook of week of June 5

Posted by Danny on June 4, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

LT wave for June

Posted by Danny on June 2, 2017

Markets continue to record new highs and the S&P 500 seems to have broken the resistance near the 2400 level. I didn’t see too many “sell in May” tweets, probably because that strategy failed last year, but that doesn’t tell us anything for this year. I would just ride this rally as long as it lasts, which is what we are doing with our reversal levels strategy.
How long? Well, the bullish scenario I updated last December is still on track: Dow 32000 revisited. It is feasible for the S&P 500 to reach 2500-600 by summer and then a final autumn surge could follow suit.
At the same time I want to keep an eye on the 88 year crash cycle I explored in this post from 2013: The long term crash cycle. This pointed to 2017 as the next candidate for a mania and crash. We will find out soon.

Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq before giving the LT wave chart for June:

^COMP (Daily) 8_18_2015 - 6_1_2017

Indicators are pointing up again after the brief pullback in mid May. We keep seeing a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. It is hard to fight a market like this. Short sellers keep getting punished and once they give up completely we may get the kind of final surge that pulls in the last bulls. Keep your eyes open and your ears closed.

Our LT wave had a decent month in May, here is the wave for June:

ltwaveJun2017

Expected strength until the 9th saw the S&P reach 2400 for the first time. The weaker period until the 23rd produced a significant dip followed by a strong final week.
For June the wave projects continued strength until the 5th and then a weaker period until the 20th. The final week is expected to be strong again, a pattern we have been seeing for several months.

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

Outlook of week of May 29

Posted by Danny on May 28, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | 4 Comments »

Outlook of week of May 22

Posted by Danny on May 21, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Outlook of week of May 15

Posted by Danny on May 15, 2017

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

The bitcoin boom

Posted by Danny on May 9, 2017

Stocks keep trading with a positive bias and major indexes are reaching new all time highs. Our LT wave for May suggests some weakness is up next. We will find out soon. Here is the current S&P chart:

^SP500 (Daily) 7_28_2015 - 5_8_2017

The S&P exceeded its March 1 high yesterday, but it didn’t manage to stay above the 2400 resistance level. It may push through in the coming days, but if that doesn’t happen it will start to look like a failed breakout and that would probably trigger some selling.
The Earl indicator (blue line) has turned down, but the slower Earl2 (orange line) is still headed higher. This can go either way. A continued rally would probably target 2500 where it would test the upper boundary of the blue trend channel. A pullback could give us a revisit of 2300 for a test of the lower boundary.
I am short term neutral until we get more clarity.

Bitcoin is getting a lot of buzz recently as it keeps climbing to new record highs. I try to do a post about bitcoin once a year, so this a good opportunity for an update. I have been quite lucky with my calls on the crypto currencies. I went bearish on bitcoin in December 2013, just weeks before it peaked above $1000. In my second article I called for bitcoins to drop as low as $180, which came true a year later. And in my most recent post in October 2015 I gave a long term buy signal for bitcoin and also tipped ethereum. Ethereum has indeed grown into a strong contender in this space. You could pick up ETH for less than $1 when I wrote my piece and it traded just below $100 in the recent weeks. That’s a nice 100-fold increase in less than 2 years.
So, what’s next for bitcoin? Here is a long term chart:

bitcoin

Bitcoin has been climbing in a nice trend channel since 2015. BTC trades above $1700 as of today, so it looks like it’s going to test the upper boundary of the channel. A breakout above $1900 is possible and would start a blow-off phase like in 2013. But that remains to be seen.
On the downside, the $1000-1200 zone is major support that must be held. A drop below that zone would tell us that newer crypto currencies (possibly ethereum) are taking over, just like Google took over from Yahoo at some point. I still think that most altcoins will go to zero once a crypto currency becomes the clear winner in terms of linking real value and services within its coin.
The next upside targets for bitcoin remain at $2457 and $4246.

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

 
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