LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Outlook for October 4

Posted by Danny on October 4, 2021

Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

LT wave for Oct 2021

Posted by Danny on October 1, 2021

The LT wave did very well for September.

Expected strength early in the month was rather underwhelming and hardly kept the S&P 500 above 4500. The final 3 weeks, when weakness was projected, produced one of the biggest selloffs so far this year, dropping over 200 points and ending the month near the lows. How does it continue?

Here is the LT wave chart for October:

ltwaveoct2021

 

Perhaps surprisingly, the wave projects a strong period from the get go, with a very high peak value on the 6th, but strength could stretch out until around the 17th. The market may use this to recover some (or all?) of the September losses, but how high such a rebound might go can not be foretold from the LT wave. Then a weaker period until the 27th, with a couple of stronger days to finish the month.

It will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

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The Feigenbaum cycle

Posted by Danny on September 29, 2021

A key date is coming up in the 666 week cycle, which could also be called “Feigenbaum cycle”, after Mitchel Feigenbaum, who discovered the universal Feigenbaum constants. Those constants appear as fundamental properties of chaotic systems, such as stock markets, weather, fractals or human history. The first Feigenbaum constant is 4.669, and 666 weeks happens to be 4666 days.

A couple of articles I posted 8 years ago focused on the 666 day and 666 week cycles. You can still find them here: here and here.

Today I want to dig deeper in this 4666 day cycle. Can we find indications that such a cycle is at work? Exploring a cycle requires a significant starting point, from where the cycle can be calculated forward and backward. Since stock markets tend to reflect human affairs it gives us useful candidates for such an exploration and I went with the great depression stock market low, which came on 8th July 1932. On that basis we find the following key dates by repeatedly adding 4666 days:

#1: 17 April 1945
#2: 25 January 1958
#3: 4 November 1970
#4: 14 August 1983
#5: 23 May 1996
#6: 2 March 2009
#7: 10 December 2021
#8: 19 September 2034
#9: 29 June 2047

While not all of those dates are equally significant, and of course other starting points could be explored, let’s have a quick look at what we got:
April 1945 was a very pivotal historical month, with the sudden death of US president Roosevelt (Apr 12), the Battle of Berlin (Apr 16) and finally the Death of Hitler (Apr 30).
January 1958 saw the official start of the EEC, the earliest version of what is now the EU.
November 1970: after massive anti-war protests US troops reductions in the Vietnam War started, an important turning point.
August 1983 was not overly remarkable. It was the start of a long economic expansion (Reaganomics). The now famous Soviet nuclear false alarm incident also happened around this time and may have shaped the rest of the decade in important ways.
May 1996: nothing special.
March 2009: Bottom of the Great Recession, the most severe economic meltdown since the Great Depression, which we are using as the anchor point of this cycle. The stock market low came exactly 6 Feigenbaum cycles after the 1932 low if we use 4666.666 days x 6 = 28,000 days. 8 July 1932 + 28,000 days = 6 March 2009. That’s a remarkable hit for such a long term cycle.
And the next key date is: 10 December 2021. Will this be another pivotal historic moment? Considering the ongoing events around SARS-Cov2 it probably wouldn’t surprise anyone if we are headed for some major changes this winter. But how? Maybe we can pick up some themes by calculating this cycle backwards to learn from the past. Here is what I found:
—-
September 29, 1919: Elaine massacre, final months of Spanish flu pandemic, US president Woodrow Wilson suffers stroke.
December 20, 1906
March 11, 1894
June 1, 1881: Assassination of US president James Garfield
August 22, 1868: Fourteenth Amendment to US Constitution
November 13, 1855
February 3, 1843
April 26, 1830: Revolutions of 1830 (France, Belgium, Poland, Switzerland, Italy,..)
July 17, 1817
October 7, 1804: Napoleon becomes Emperor of France
December 28, 1791: French Revolution: Declaration of Rights of the Woman. United States Bill of Rights.
March 20, 1779: Crucial phase in American Revolutionary War
June 10, 1766: Declaratory Act
August 31, 1753
November 10, 1740
February 1, 1728
April 24, 1715
July 15, 1702
October 5, 1689: Bill of Rights 1689 (England)
December 26, 1676
March 18, 1664
June 9, 1651: English Civil War
—-

Important milestones with regards to fight for freedom, revolutionary wars and individual rights seem to cluster around those dates.
With the lockdowns and vaccination programs in the recent year (already leading to introduction of vaccination passports in some countries) and censorship on social media, questions about individual rights, right of movement and freedom of speech have again taken center stage. Will it come to a kind of climax next December? Will something unexpected change the course of events?

Six 666 week cycles after the great depression low in 1932 we had the great recession low in March 2009. Next December we will be six such cycles after the end of WW2, so maybe it will bring liberation and some kind of closure on the covid19 pandemic episode. Whatever happens, chances are we will be looking back at this year as an important pivot point, for better or worse.

***
Extra info based on user comments:

Most people give cycles about 1% leeway, which is 46 days on a 4666 days cycle. I use the idealized cycle of 666.6666 days as a starting point and if you multiply it by 7 that becomes 4666.6666 days. I round those numbers to 666 and 4666 because that’s more catchy and easy to remember.

The 666 days comes very close to the Venus-Mars conjunction cycle (as explained here: https://lunatictrader.com/2013/10/31/questioning-financial-astrology-part-2/ ). The conjunctions actually happen at an average interval of 333.922 days (= (686.97*224.7)/(686.97-224.7) ), which is nearly 334 days and would be almost 668 days if we double it. Seven times the exact cycle length would then become 4674.9 days.

There is more number fun to be had if you look for conjunction of Mars (686.97 days) and the 4666 day cycle. (686.97*4666)/(4666-686.97) = 805.6 days.
Do the same with conjunction of Earth cycle (365.257 days) and the 666 day cycle.
(365.257*666.666)/(666.666-365.257) = 807.9 days.
A sidereal month is 27.32 days. A synodic month is 29.53 days. Multiply them: 27.32*29.53 and you get 807.

The result is almost the same. I round this cycle to 808 days. So we have this:
808/2.2121212121 = 365.26 (the length of a day)
808/1.2121212121 = 666.6

And if we double 808 we get 1616, which is almost exactly 1000 x the Fibonacci ratio (1.618)

Is there a use in it? I don’t know. Some old scriptures say the numbers based on 3 (6 and 9) are the key to everything. And 1000 is of course 10^3. So 1/3 and 2/3 of 1000 are important. That’s 333.333 and 666.666.
Jupiter goes around the Sun in 4333 days. So, two Jupiter cycles is 8666 days, or 4666 + 4666 – 666.
Then we can take 807 days and multiply by 13.333. The result is 10759, the exact length of the Saturn cycle. If we use 808 we get 10773, still close enough.

***
Comment 20 November 2021:

We are only a few weeks away from our important December 10 key date. Worldwide protests against covid measures and vaccination mandates are becoming too big to ignore by the media. The S&P 500 has reached 4700, but keeps stalling at that level. This is a very interesting price target because the year 2000 high was 1552.87 and the March 2009 panic low was 666.79.
If we multiply 1552.87 by 3 we get 4658.61.
If we multiply 666.79 by 7 we get 4667.53.
Will this prove to be a major market peak?

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , | 7 Comments »

Outlook for September 27

Posted by Danny on September 27, 2021

Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for September 20

Posted by Danny on September 20, 2021

Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for September 13

Posted by Danny on September 13, 2021

Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for September 6

Posted by Danny on September 6, 2021

Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

LT wave for Sep 2021

Posted by Danny on August 30, 2021

It was a rather average month for the LT wave in August.

Expected weakness in the first 4 days gave us sideways action, which was followed by a nice rally in the subsequent strong period. A peak was reached on the 16th, when the strong period ended. Then the market pulled back sharply in the beginning of the next weak period, but rebounded much more sharply and quickly than our LT wave projected. New record highs were reached before the end of the month already, so the sustained weak period did not pan out.

Here is the LT wave chart for September:

ltwavesep2021

The beginning of September shows continued strength until around the 10th, with a high peak value on the 8th. The final 3 weeks look significantly weaker, with the possibility of a few stronger days around the 17th.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 2 Comments »

Outlook for August 30

Posted by Danny on August 30, 2021

Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for August 23

Posted by Danny on August 23, 2021

Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. Instructions for use are included.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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