Forward test 2009-2020

A 59 year backtest of S&P 500 trading showed the index performing significantly better in lunar green periods versus red periods. See: Moon cycles in the markets.

To see if this effect holds up in real trading we did a 10 year live forward test, here on the blog, from the summer 2009 until the middle of 2020.

We used the most basic strategy: buying stocks at the end of every red period and selling them at the end of each green period. Daily Nasdaq closing prices are used.
Over this period the Nasdaq has gained a total of 6147 points in the lunar green periods, versus a cumulative rise of 2019 points in the lunar red periods (when more weakness is expected). So, the green periods have continued to outperform. Over this nearly 11 years test period (stretching over 12 calendar years) the green periods outperformed the red periods in 8 years, with the red periods doing better in 4 years. Here is the complete history:

2020 Performance

Period Nasdaq Close Green Period Red Period
29 Dec 9007
29 Dec – 13 Jan 9274 +267
13 Jan – 28 Jan 9270 -4
28 Jan – 11 Feb 9639 +369
11 Feb – 27 Feb 8566 -1073
27 Feb – 12 Mar 7202 -1364
12 Mar – 27 Mar 7502 +300
27 Mar – 10 Apr 8154 +652
10 Apr – 26 Apr 8635 +481
26 Apr – 10 May 9121 +486
10 May – 25 May 9325 +204
25 May – 8 Jun 9925 +600
8 Jun – 24 Jun 9909 -16
24 Jun – 8 Jul 10493 +584
8 Jul –
Total: -108 +1594

Previous years:

2019 Performance

Period Nasdaq Close Green Period Red Period
25 Dec 6193
25 Dec – 9 Jan 6957 +764
9 Jan – 23 Jan 7026 +69
23 Jan – 8 Feb 7298 +272
8 Feb – 22 Feb 7528 +230
22 Feb – 9 Mar 7408 -120
9 Mar – 23 Mar 7643 +235
23 Mar – 8 Apr 7954 +311
8 Apr – 22 Apr 8015 +61
22 Apr – 7 May 7964 -51
7 May – 21 May 7786 -178
21 May – 6 Jun 7616 -170
6 Jun – 20 Jun 8051 +435
20 Jun – 5 Jul 8162 +110
5 Jul – 20 Jul 8146 -16
20 Jul – 3 Aug 8004 -142
3 Aug – 18 Aug 7896 -108
18 Aug – 1 Sep 7963 +67
1 Sep – 17 Sep 8186 +223
17 Sep – 1 Oct 7909 -277
1 Oct – 17 Oct 8157 +248
17 Oct – 30 Oct 8304 +147
30 Oct – 15 Nov 8541 +237
15 Nov – 29 Nov 8665 +124
29 Nov – 15 Dec 8735 +70
15 Dec – 29 Dec 9007 +272
Total: +1307 +1506

Previous years:

2018 Performance

Period Nasdaq Close Green Period Red Period
4 Jan 7078
4 Jan – 20 Jan 7336 +258
20 Jan – 3 Feb 7241 -95
3 Feb – 19 Feb 7239 -2
19 Feb – 4 Mar 7258 +19
4 Mar – 20 Mar 7364 +106
20 Mar – 3 Apr 6941 -423
3 Apr – 18 Apr 7295 +354
18 Apr – 3 May 7088 -207
3 May – 18 May 7354 +266
18 May – 2 Jun 7554 +200
2 Jun – 16 Jun 7746 +192
16 Jun – 1 Jul 7510 -236
1 Jul – 15 Jul 7826 +316
15 Jul – 31 Jul 7672 -154
31 Jul – 14 Aug 7871 +199
14 Aug – 29 Aug 8110 +239
29 Aug – 12 Sep 7954 -156
12 Sep – 28 Sep 8046 +92
28 Sep – 12 Oct 7497 -549
12 Oct – 27 Oct 7167 -330
27 Oct – 10 Nov 7407 +240
10 Nov – 25 Nov 6939 -468
25 Nov – 10 Dec 7021 +82
10 Dec – 25 Dec 6193 -828
Total: +1306 -2191

2017 Performance

Period Nasdaq Close Green Period Red Period
1 Jan 5383
1 Jan – 15 Jan 5574 +191
15 Jan – 31 Jan 5615 +41
31 Jan – 14 Feb 5783 +168
14 Feb – 1 Mar 5904 +121
1 Mar – 15 Mar 5900 -4
15 Mar – 30 Mar 5914 +14
30 Mar – 14 Apr 5805 -109
14 Apr – 29 Apr 6048 +243
29 Apr – 14 May 6121 +73
14 May – 28 May 6210 +89
28 May – 12 Jun 6175 -35
12 Jun – 26 Jun 6247 +72
26 Jun – 12 Jul 6261 +14
12 Jul – 26 Jul 6423 +162
26 Jul – 11 Aug 6217 -206
11 Aug – 24 Aug 6271 +54
24 Aug – 9 Sep 6360 +89
9 Sep – 23 Sep 6427 +67
23 Sep – 8 Oct 6590 +163
8 Oct – 23 Oct 6587 -3
23 Oct – 6 Nov 6786 +199
6 Nov – 21 Nov 6862 +76
21 Nov – 6 Dec 6776 -86
6 Dec – 21 Dec 6965 +189
21 Dec – 4 Jan 7078 +113
Total: +1125 +570

lt_2016

lt_2015

lt_2014

lt_2013

lt_2012

lt_2011

lt_2010

lt_2009

5 comments

  1. Where can i find the dates for red and green period for the rest of the year? Thank you

    1. Hi Helen,

      The red and green lunar periods till the year 2100 are easily available in our LunaticTrader software program.
      See our main site for more info and details about all lunar cycles we consider: http://LunaticTrader.com

      Danny

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