LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Posts Tagged ‘Crude Oil’

Key reversal levels for week of December 9, 2013

Posted by Danny on December 9, 2013

Key reversal levels for this week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,062.52 3,738.41 8.41 48 31.51
S&P 500 1,805.09 1,710.97 8.27 53 27.45
Nikkei 15,299.86 13,933.64 4.96 54 61.63
FTSE 100 6,552.00 6,501.83 2.63 21 0.11
DAX 9,172.41 8,749.50 8.12 21 11.34
Bonds (TLT) 102.92 107.70 -1.71 29 -11.17
Gold (spot) 1,228.91 1,364.23 -3.68 50 -25.83
$EURUSD 1.3701 1.3338 2.34 19 3.15
Oil (CL) 97.65 101.49 -5.17 6 -0.23

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* S&P 500 and DAX are seeing their MoM turn down this week, joining the FTSE 100 in the “may have peaked” category. Nasdaq and Nikkei are still fully bullish.

* $EURUSD has upward MoM again, so back to fully bullish.

* Oil may have bottomed for a while.

Daily key reversal levels as of today:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,062.52 3,962.54 6.56 39 7.83
S&P 500 1,805.09 1,774.32 2.14 40 6.74
Nikkei 15,299.86 15,096.78 3.96 18 5.31
FTSE 100 6,552.00 6,652.38 -6.45 8 -1.27
DAX 9,172.41 9,081.75 1.10 41 5.37
Bonds (TLT) 102.92 104.38 -3.32 22 -1.92
Gold (spot) 1,228.91 1,273.81 -4.14 23 -6.31
$EURUSD 1.3701 1.3510 2.89 10 1.14
Oil (CL) 97.65 94.92 3.02 2 0.33

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* All covered stock indexes are displaying downward MoM on the daily level, so we see a weakening bull move in stocks. Some exchanges are only marginally above their daily key reversal level, so we could soon see other markets follow the FTSE 100 into declining mode.

* Bonds (TLT) failed to break above their daily key reversal and MoM has turned down again.

* Oil has broken above its daily key reversal and is now in rally mode.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1820 1870 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 17220 * 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6205 6110
DAX 9480 9800 * 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1153
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 89.50 86.00

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* For Nikkei we have a refined Top2 target at 17220.

* For DAX we have a new Top2 target at 9800.

* Most stock indexes came close to their Top1 target last week, and all turned back down.

* Bonds (TLT) continues to sit just avove its Bottom1 target at 102. That level may not hold much longer and I would start looking for the Bottom2 target at 96.50

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of December 2, 2013

Posted by Danny on December 1, 2013

Here is our key reversal levels table for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,059.88 3,714.71 8.31 47 31.42
S&P 500 1,805.81 1,702.00 8.29 52 27.50
Nikkei 15,661.87 13,828.43 3.94 53 65.45
FTSE 100 6,650.60 6,504.67 3.46 20 1.62
DAX 9,405.29 8,714.19 8.32 20 14.17
Bonds (TLT) 104.45 107.92 -1.04 28 -9.85
Gold (spot) 1,252.50 1,373.97 -2.83 49 -24.40
$EURUSD 1.3591 1.3320 2.18 18 2.33
Oil (CL) 92.72 101.70 -5.20 5 -5.27

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomedĀ  | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

From now onwards I am using 4 different colors to display the market mode. Green and red still show bullish or bearish, but now there is also pale green (which is used when MoM has turned down), indicating that the bull move is either pausing or has peaked out. And pink (used for bearish with MoM going to the upside), showing a pause in an ongoing decline or a market that has bottomed out.

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* Stock indexes remain very strong, with the exception of the FTSE 100, which has been the weakest market for a while.

* Continuing weakness in bonds (TLT) , gold and oil, with momentum (MoM) remaining to the downside. No changes from last week.

* $EURUSD is in a weak bull market.

And here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,059.88 3,933.55 6.28 34 7.76
S&P 500 1,805.81 1,768.42 6.73 35 6.78
Nikkei 15,661.87 14,994.19 8.94 13 7.80
FTSE 100 6,650.60 6,690.07 -1.66 3 0.22
DAX 9,405.29 9,058.40 8.61 36 8.04
Bonds (TLT) 104.45 105.00 -1.50 17 -0.47
Gold (spot) 1,252.50 1,284.01 -5.03 18 -4.51
$EURUSD 1.3591 1.3487 2.41 5 0.32
Oil (CL) 92.72 96.28 -2.27 52 -11.50

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* We see some weakening in the daily picture for several stock indexes. The Nasdaq and DAX continue to go strong, but the S&P 500 and Nikkei have seen daily MoM turn down, which puts them in the weak bullish – may have peaked category.

* The FTSE 100 has fallen below its daily key level last Tuesday and is in declining mode now. Notice how daily MoM indicator for FTSE100 has been warning for weeks already. This is how it is supposed to work.

* Bonds (TLT) remain in the “may have bottomed” (pink) category and are coming close to their daily key reversal level. A close above 105 is what it would take to turn TLT to green again.

* Gold came within 1% of our bottom target at $1215 and bounced back upwards. Daily MoM has turned up from a very low level, so gold may have seen at least a medium term bottom here. Can do some speculative buying of beaten down gold miner stocks at this point.

* The $EURUSD is continuing its fresh rally, and for oil we wait for signs of a bottom.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top Top2 Bottom Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1820 1870 * 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 16580 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6205 6110
DAX 9310 9480 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1153 *
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 89.50 86.00 *

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* For S&P 500 we have a new top target at 1870. For gold we have a new bottom target at 1153. For oil there is a new bottom target at 86.

* The Nasdaq has finally pushed above its top target and we can now set sights on 4200.

* The Nikkei has come within 1% of its top target at 15850, and appears to be stalling there.

* The DAX is probably going towards its Top2 target at 9480

* Bonds (TLT) survived another test of their long standing bottom target at 102

* Oil has broken below its bottom target at 94.30, so 89.50 is now the next level to watch.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of July 22, 2013

Posted by Danny on July 20, 2013

Our key reversal levels going into next week:

Status Key (W) Mom (W) Mode Key (D) Mom (D)
Nasdaq BULL S: 3294 Up RALLY S: 3502 Down *
S&P 500 BULL S: 1563 Up RALLY S: 1647.50 Up
Nikkei BULL S: 12450 Up RALLY S: 13885 Down *
FTSE 100 BULL S: 6249 Up RALLY S: 6420 Up
DAX BULL S: 7819 Up * RALLY S: 8087 Up
Bonds (TLT) BEAR R: 116.40 Down DECLINE R: 110.44 Up
Gold (spot) BEAR R: 1448 Up * DECLINE R: 1295.55 Up
Euro/US$ BEAR R: 1.3186 Up * RALLY * R: 1.3035 Up
Crude Oil(CL) BULL S: 93.47 Up RALLY S: 101.88 Up

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, Mom = momentum, * = change from previous week/day)

Important developments:

* The weekly momentum for Dax is now Up, as was already the case for the other covered stock markets.

* For most stock markets the daily momentum is now stalling and for the Nasdaq and Nikkei it has turned Down already. This is the first sign of a potential peak. When that happens it is not a reason for instant panic, but it is a sign to get more careful and protect your profits with a well chosen stop-loss. When daily momentum turns down after a significant rally, then I start putting my stop-loss a few ticks below the previous day’s low. This often keeps me in the rally if there is more to come (which then turns the daily momentum back up after a few days), and if weakness continues then I get stopped out for a nice profit. E.g. Friday’s low for the Nasdaq was 3578.57, so for Monday I put my stop at ~3578.50. The Nasdaq has been in rally mode since it closed above 3435 in early July, so this locks in some 130 points profit in just two weeks, with potentially more to come if the daily momentum turns back up before the stop-loss gets hit.

* Gold has continued to fail at its daily key reversal, so remains in declining mode. But its weekly momentum is now turning up, be it tentatively. This is a first sign that it could go on to test its weekly key resistance (currently at $1448), but to do so it will need to take the next hurdle by closing above that daily key. Gold has now been stuck just below its daily key resistance for 7 trading days in a row, so it will be interesting to see which way it goes. I think we will find out next week.

* The Euro has shifted into rally mode last week, and also its weekly momentum is now turning up. Positive developments, but we need to get follow through. The Euro is in a rather narrow sideways range, and that’s why the weekly and daily key reversal levels are so close to each other. In that case the momentum can turn several times before a clear trending move emerges.

* Oil has continued to push higher, but its daily momentum is now starting to stall and may turn down next week. I keep a stop-loss near $105 and will move my stop closer to the market if the daily momentum turns down.

PS: I try to send out timely tweets when major markets are at important junctures, so follow @lunatictrader1 if you want to be kept up to date.

Good luck,
Danny

 

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