Here is our key reversal levels table for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,059.88 | 3,714.71 | 8.31 | 47 | 31.42 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,805.81 | 1,702.00 | 8.29 | 52 | 27.50 | |
| Nikkei | 15,661.87 | 13,828.43 | 3.94 | 53 | 65.45 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,650.60 | 6,504.67 | 3.46 | 20 | 1.62 | |
| DAX | 9,405.29 | 8,714.19 | 8.32 | 20 | 14.17 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 104.45 | 107.92 | -1.04 | 28 | -9.85 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,252.50 | 1,373.97 | -2.83 | 49 | -24.40 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3591 | 1.3320 | 2.18 | 18 | 2.33 | |
| Oil (CL) | 92.72 | 101.70 | -5.20 | 5 | -5.27 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
From now onwards I am using 4 different colors to display the market mode. Green and red still show bullish or bearish, but now there is also pale green (which is used when MoM has turned down), indicating that the bull move is either pausing or has peaked out. And pink (used for bearish with MoM going to the upside), showing a pause in an ongoing decline or a market that has bottomed out.
Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:
* Stock indexes remain very strong, with the exception of the FTSE 100, which has been the weakest market for a while.
* Continuing weakness in bonds (TLT) , gold and oil, with momentum (MoM) remaining to the downside. No changes from last week.
* $EURUSD is in a weak bull market.
And here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:
| Daily | Current | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,059.88 | 3,933.55 | 6.28 | 34 | 7.76 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,805.81 | 1,768.42 | 6.73 | 35 | 6.78 | |
| Nikkei | 15,661.87 | 14,994.19 | 8.94 | 13 | 7.80 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,650.60 | 6,690.07 | -1.66 | 3 | 0.22 | |
| DAX | 9,405.29 | 9,058.40 | 8.61 | 36 | 8.04 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 104.45 | 105.00 | -1.50 | 17 | -0.47 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,252.50 | 1,284.01 | -5.03 | 18 | -4.51 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3591 | 1.3487 | 2.41 | 5 | 0.32 | |
| Oil (CL) | 92.72 | 96.28 | -2.27 | 52 | -11.50 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:
* We see some weakening in the daily picture for several stock indexes. The Nasdaq and DAX continue to go strong, but the S&P 500 and Nikkei have seen daily MoM turn down, which puts them in the weak bullish – may have peaked category.
* The FTSE 100 has fallen below its daily key level last Tuesday and is in declining mode now. Notice how daily MoM indicator for FTSE100 has been warning for weeks already. This is how it is supposed to work.
* Bonds (TLT) remain in the “may have bottomed” (pink) category and are coming close to their daily key reversal level. A close above 105 is what it would take to turn TLT to green again.
* Gold came within 1% of our bottom target at $1215 and bounced back upwards. Daily MoM has turned up from a very low level, so gold may have seen at least a medium term bottom here. Can do some speculative buying of beaten down gold miner stocks at this point.
* The $EURUSD is continuing its fresh rally, and for oil we wait for signs of a bottom.
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top | Top2 | Bottom | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4200 | – | 3530 | 3210 |
| S&P 500 | 1820 | 1870 * | 1576 | 1522 |
| Nikkei | 15850 | 16580 | 12710 | 10450 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7150 | 6205 | 6110 |
| DAX | 9310 | 9480 | 7870 | 7210 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 128.50 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1448 | 1540 | 1215 | 1153 * |
| EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.2870 | 1.2350 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.40 | 121 | 89.50 | 86.00 * |
(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Important developments last week:
* For S&P 500 we have a new top target at 1870. For gold we have a new bottom target at 1153. For oil there is a new bottom target at 86.
* The Nasdaq has finally pushed above its top target and we can now set sights on 4200.
* The Nikkei has come within 1% of its top target at 15850, and appears to be stalling there.
* The DAX is probably going towards its Top2 target at 9480
* Bonds (TLT) survived another test of their long standing bottom target at 102
* Oil has broken below its bottom target at 94.30, so 89.50 is now the next level to watch.
PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.
Good luck,
Danny
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Key reversal levels for week of December 9, 2013
Posted by Danny on December 9, 2013
Key reversal levels for this week:
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:
* S&P 500 and DAX are seeing their MoM turn down this week, joining the FTSE 100 in the “may have peaked” category. Nasdaq and Nikkei are still fully bullish.
* $EURUSD has upward MoM again, so back to fully bullish.
* Oil may have bottomed for a while.
Daily key reversal levels as of today:
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:
* All covered stock indexes are displaying downward MoM on the daily level, so we see a weakening bull move in stocks. Some exchanges are only marginally above their daily key reversal level, so we could soon see other markets follow the FTSE 100 into declining mode.
* Bonds (TLT) failed to break above their daily key reversal and MoM has turned down again.
* Oil has broken above its daily key reversal and is now in rally mode.
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Important developments last week:
* For Nikkei we have a refined Top2 target at 17220.
* For DAX we have a new Top2 target at 9800.
* Most stock indexes came close to their Top1 target last week, and all turned back down.
* Bonds (TLT) continues to sit just avove its Bottom1 target at 102. That level may not hold much longer and I would start looking for the Bottom2 target at 96.50
PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.
Good luck,
Danny
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Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: $EURUSD, Crude Oil, FTSE 100 Index, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, S&P 500 | Leave a Comment »