Our key tables and comments for this week, now in slideshow format (click on expand button to see in fullscreen).
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then you can also watch it directly on slideshare.
Stay tuned, Danny
Posts Tagged ‘DAX’
Key reversal levels for week of July 21, 2014
Posted by Danny on July 20, 2014
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: DAX, Euro, FTSE100, gold, key levels, Nasdaq | 4 Comments »
Key reversal levels for week of July 14, 2014
Posted by Danny on July 13, 2014
Our key tables and comments for this week :
* The FTSE100 index has gone into fully bearish mode, the first major market to do so. The DAX is weak as well, but still holding above its weekly key reversal level. Both are testing their Bottom1 targets already. The US markets have been stronger and remain bullish with upward MoM on the weekly level.
* In the daily key levels all major stock indexes are showing downward MoM, which means a pullback is underway. Is it the start of something bigger? That is always possible. Every bear market starts with one down candle and with one down swing. Right now there is no reason for panic, but if the US and Japanese market also drop below their daily key reversal levels, then the outlook for stocks will darken. So I wait and see.
* For the Nasdaq we have a new Top2 target at 4659.
* In other world markets the French CAC 40 has gone into bearish mode. Several other European markets are coming close to do so as well: Italy and Switzerland. New problems brewing in Europe? Hmmm, just old problems resurfacing… Weekly MoM has also turned down for the MSCI World index, marking a possible long term peak.
* Bonds (TLT) have bounced back, but weekly MoM keeps pointing down for the bond market.
* Gold is back to fully bullish. $1415 is the Top1 target if we get another leg upwards. Now it is becoming DO time for gold.
* The Euro is stuck around 1.36. Key levels are bearish for the Euro at the moment, but that doesn’t mean much in a market that has been going sideways for so long. A big move will come, but which way? Plenty of traders are probably looking to go long Euro on a breakout above 1.40, or to go short on drop below 1.34…, and that may or may not work, as fake out moves have become common. In a coiled market like this one I like to take a look at the monthly key levels for direction. Monthly MoM for $EURUSD is going down since May (it had been going up since August 2012) and a monthly close below 1.3264 would confirm the next major move is indeed down.
* Oil has dropped below its weekly key level and is now fully bearish. The Bottom1 target for oil is 94.60
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 28 stocks are bullish this week, up from 27 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
* A reader wrote me to tell how boring it is, e.g. my posts keep repeating “healthy bull market” for the Dow Jones week after week.
What to do? It is not as if shorting the Dow Industrials has been profitable in recent months. I can only repeat George Soros on that point: “If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.”
If the key reversal levels are boring it is actually a good sign, it means they are not pointing in a different direction every other week. And that can only mean we are getting good trending moves. E.g. the Nasdaq has been in weekly bullish mode for 79 weeks and counting. It doesn’t get any more boring than that. When we started posting them the weekly key reversal level for the Nasdaq was at 3221, now it stands at 4109, so that is 900 points of Nasdaq profit quietly locked in by our key levels. Meanwhile plenty of other analysts/bloggers have been trying to nail the top since the beginning of last year (if not before). I am sure they have not been bored. But how much have they lost by now (provided they trade their own calls)? 20%, 30%, more? By the time we actually do get a correction it will perhaps give them back half of the money they lost, or back to breakeven if they are lucky (provided they have not given up trading their own calls by then). That’s a big price to pay for being able to say “told you so”.
Some day our key levels will stop saying “healthy bull market”. Maybe next week, next month, next year… It will come.
***
Here are the updated tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,415.49 | 4,109.03 | 6.88 | 79 | 42.93 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,967.57 | 1,861.01 | 7.57 | 84 | 38.92 | |
| Nikkei | 15,164.04 | 14,607.06 | 3.08 | 5 | -0.26 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,690.20 | 6,834.48 | 1.32 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| DAX | 9,666.34 | 9,409.44 | 4.08 | 15 | 0.46 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 113.58 | 109.23 | 2.31 | 24 | 6.46 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,338.12 | 1,279.81 | 0.47 | 3 | 1.76 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3607 | 1.3729 | -2.19 | 8 | -0.60 | |
| Oil (CL) | 100.83 | 104.15 | 2.36 | 0 | 0.00 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 7/11/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,415.49 | 4,342.43 | 3.49 | 35 | 6.76 | 2 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,967.57 | 1,948.25 | 3.24 | 35 | 4.20 | 2 | ||
| Nikkei | 15,164.04 | 15,128.86 | 1.04 | 36 | 5.22 | 2 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,690.20 | 6,797.17 | -2.79 | 3 | -0.72 | 11 | ||
| DAX | 9,666.34 | 9,908.46 | -3.60 | 3 | -1.25 | 7 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 113.58 | 111.94 | 0.90 | 3 | 0.82 | 5 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,338.12 | 1,299.15 | 3.36 | 21 | 5.12 | 17 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3607 | 1.3643 | -0.33 | 5 | 0.10 | 15 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 100.83 | 104.71 | -5.52 | 5 | -2.81 | 11 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4531 | 4659 * | 3975 | 3742 |
| S&P 500 | 2001 | 2031 | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15976 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7110 | 6642 | 6230 |
| DAX | 10240 | 10450 | 9682 | 8715 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.60 | 115.70 | 108.25 | 102 |
| Gold (spot) | 1415 | 1541 | 1160 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3403 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.24 | 112.47 | 94.60 | 91.85 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Good luck, Danny
Related articles
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: DAX, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Euro, FTSE 100 Index, George Soros, gold, key levels, MSCI World, Nasdaq | 4 Comments »
Key reversal levels for March 19
Posted by Danny on March 19, 2014
Latest daily key reversal levels:
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W: weekly mode | %Ch.: blue = profit, orange = loss | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Comments:
* Several changes in our key reversal levels today.
* Nasdaq has jumped back into bullish mode. But the move is suspect as the breakout happens with MoM remaining to the downside. So could turn out to be a fake out move.
* DAX is the first market that sees MoM turn upwards, so may have bottomed for now. Daily key level at 9451 is now the first upside target.
* Gold and $EURUSD have seen nice rallies in recent weeks, but MoM is turning down on them. That means they probably peaked for a while and are setting up for a test of their daily key reversal levels. Staying cautious as long as MoM goes down.
PS: to get the key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, follow me on Twitter.
Danny
Related articles
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: $EURUSD, DAX, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, TLT | Leave a Comment »
Key reversal levels for week of March 10, 2014
Posted by Danny on March 8, 2014
Comments for this week (the reversal tables are posted below) :
* The Nikkei has closed above its weekly key reversal level and is now bullish again. But it could be a fake out move as its weekly MoM remains to the downside, which is suspect. If Nikkei moves above 15500 we can become more confident that this rally is for real.
* US and UK markets are once again testing their Top1 targets and seem to be stalling near these levels. Daily MoM remains to the downside for Nasdaq and FTSE 100, while the DAX continues to weaken. It looks like most markets will need another pullback before they can climb higher.
* Bonds (TLT) are weakening as well. Weekly MoM is turning down and on the daily level bonds have fallen below their key reversal level, putting them into declining mode. If TLT closes below 105.03 next week it will enter fully bearish mode.
* We have a new Top2 target for gold at $1541. This targets will come into play if gold can break above its Top1 target.
***
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,336.22 | 3,934.46 | 7.00 | 61 | 40.37 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,878.04 | 1,774.88 | 3.18 | 66 | 32.60 | |
| Nikkei | 15,274.07 | 14,610.87 | -2.05 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,712.70 | 6,589.90 | 1.15 | 2 | -1.83 | |
| DAX | 9,350.75 | 9,095.92 | 3.09 | 34 | 13.51 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 105.89 | 105.03 | 2.72 | 6 | -1.24 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,339.64 | 1,273.44 | 2.50 | 3 | 1.63 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3878 | 1.3540 | 1.50 | 32 | 4.49 | |
| Oil (CL) | 102.58 | 97.21 | 2.62 | 3 | 2.46 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 3/7/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,336.22 | 4,236.65 | 6.23 | 19 | 5.12 | 2 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,878.04 | 1,831.29 | 6.49 | 17 | 3.18 | 1 | ||
| Nikkei | 15,274.07 | 14,751.60 | 2.21 | 1 | -0.04 | 5 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,712.70 | 6,704.21 | 0.91 | 18 | 0.60 | 2 | ||
| DAX | 9,350.75 | 9,601.36 | -1.59 | 4 | -1.09 | 7 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 105.89 | 107.35 | 1.55 | 0 | 0.00 | 35 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,339.64 | 1,306.85 | 3.73 | 40 | 7.34 | 2 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3878 | 1.3700 | 2.86 | 20 | 1.93 | 1 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 102.58 | 99.81 | 2.42 | 31 | 6.09 | 2 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4566 | 3797 | 3530 |
| S&P 500 | 1870 | 1934 | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7250 | 6230 | 5980 |
| DAX | 9800 | 10240 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 114.20 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 * | 1153 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3435 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 104 | 113 | 89.50 | 86.00 |
(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter. We also try to tweet the daily key reversal levels every day.
Good luck, Danny
Related articles
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: DAX, FTSE 100 Index, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, Nikkei, S&P 500 | Leave a Comment »
Key reversal levels for February 21
Posted by Danny on February 21, 2014
Latest daily key reversal levels:
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W: weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Comments:
* Today we see momentum (MoM) turn down for the DAX and for gold. So, they are now in mildly bullish mode, which means they may have peaked for a while.
* When MoM turns down after a rally, it is generally a good idea to take partial profits. We see that the DAX is up 1.2% since it went into bullish mode 7 days, while gold is up 5.97% since it turned bullish 29 days ago. Taking partial profits means you remove the risk from the remaining position, and then you just keep using the key reversal level as your stop-loss. This will gradually lock in more profits until the market goes into bearish mode eventually.
* MoM turning down after a rally is also the point where you can initiate speculative short positions to benefit from a possible pullback or correction. It is important to estimate risk/reward before going short when MoM turns down. The risk depends on how far the entry price is away from a recent high (as we will need to use a stop-loss just above a recent high). The reward can be estimated from the key reversal table. If the given market is strongly bullish (dark green) on the weekly(W) level, as is the case for gold, then the daily key reversal level is going to be the approximate profit target. E.g. for gold we see the key reversal at $1274 , which is about 50$ below the current levels. The recent high for gold was $1333.2, which is about $10 above curent levels. So, the risk on a short trade would be ~$10 with a profit potential of ~$50. That’s OK for a quick trade. But one has to reassess the risk and reward every day, because the daily key reversal will come up (reducing the remaining potential in the trade). So, if all goes well, only $35 or $25 of the profit potential may be realized. That’s still not bad for a $10 risk.
* This is just an example of how key reversal levels can be used. Stay tuned for more strategies when my upcoming ebook is ready.
PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter.
Danny
Related articles
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: DAX, gold, key levels | Leave a Comment »
Key reversal levels for week of January 6, 2014
Posted by Danny on January 5, 2014
Key reversal levels for this week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,131.91 | 3,817.78 | 8.19 | 52 | 33.75 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,831.37 | 1,743.93 | 7.55 | 57 | 29.30 | |
| Nikkei | 16,291.30 | 14,555.31 | 8.00 | 58 | 72.10 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,730.70 | 6,522.84 | 0.79 | 1 | -0.30 | |
| DAX | 9,435.15 | 8,896.79 | 6.89 | 25 | 14.53 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 102.17 | 106.72 | -3.10 | 33 | -11.82 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,236.60 | 1,327.06 | -4.53 | 54 | -25.36 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3588 | 1.3438 | 2.84 | 23 | 2.30 | |
| Oil (CL) | 93.96 | 101.14 | -2.06 | 10 | -4.00 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:
* Major stock indexes are still bullish on the weekly level.
* We see some weakness for the DAX where MoM is turning down again.
* MoM is turning up for gold, which means we can set sights on the key reversal level at $1327
* MoM is turning down for $EURUSD, so this market could turn bearish very soon.
* Oil has failed to break above its weekly key reversal level, so bear market continues.
Daily key reversal levels as of today:
| Daily | Current | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,131.91 | 4,063.73 | 8.34 | 57 | 9.67 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,831.37 | 1,803.26 | 8.29 | 10 | 1.24 | |
| Nikkei | 16,291.30 | 15,447.13 | 8.37 | 8 | 3.05 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,730.70 | 6,595.07 | 8.56 | 7 | 1.88 | |
| DAX | 9,435.15 | 9,204.53 | 8.36 | 9 | 3.20 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 102.17 | 103.09 | -3.15 | 6 | -0.18 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,236.60 | 1,238.95 | -1.49 | 42 | -5.72 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3588 | 1.3725 | 0.48 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Oil (CL) | 93.96 | 98.27 | -0.20 | 1 | -1.58 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:
* Stock market rallies are in jeopardy. MoM is turning down from very optimistic +8 levels, and most markets are not far above their daily key reversal levels. This means we are at an elevated risk for a sizable drop if the key reversal levels get broken on a closing basis. The weekly key reversal levels (see above) then become the first downside targets.
* $EURUSD has fallen below its key reversal level and is now in declining mode
* Oil fell, below its key reversal level last Thursday and has thus gone into declining mode as well.
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4200 | 4390 * | 3530 | 3210 |
| S&P 500 | 1870 | 1926 * | 1755 | 1576 |
| Nikkei | 17220 | 12710 | 10450 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7150 | 6230 | 6110 |
| DAX | 9480 | 9800 | 8715 | 7870 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 128.50 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1448 | 1540 | 1153 | 1075 |
| EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.2870 | 1.2350 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 105 | 113 | 89.50 | 86.00 |
(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Important developments last week:
* There is a new Top2 target for Nasdaq at 4390, and for S&P 500 at 1926
PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.
Good luck,
Danny
Related articles
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: DAX, FTSE 100 Index, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, S&P 500 | Leave a Comment »
Key reversal levels for week of December 2, 2013
Posted by Danny on December 1, 2013
Here is our key reversal levels table for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,059.88 | 3,714.71 | 8.31 | 47 | 31.42 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,805.81 | 1,702.00 | 8.29 | 52 | 27.50 | |
| Nikkei | 15,661.87 | 13,828.43 | 3.94 | 53 | 65.45 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,650.60 | 6,504.67 | 3.46 | 20 | 1.62 | |
| DAX | 9,405.29 | 8,714.19 | 8.32 | 20 | 14.17 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 104.45 | 107.92 | -1.04 | 28 | -9.85 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,252.50 | 1,373.97 | -2.83 | 49 | -24.40 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3591 | 1.3320 | 2.18 | 18 | 2.33 | |
| Oil (CL) | 92.72 | 101.70 | -5.20 | 5 | -5.27 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
From now onwards I am using 4 different colors to display the market mode. Green and red still show bullish or bearish, but now there is also pale green (which is used when MoM has turned down), indicating that the bull move is either pausing or has peaked out. And pink (used for bearish with MoM going to the upside), showing a pause in an ongoing decline or a market that has bottomed out.
Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:
* Stock indexes remain very strong, with the exception of the FTSE 100, which has been the weakest market for a while.
* Continuing weakness in bonds (TLT) , gold and oil, with momentum (MoM) remaining to the downside. No changes from last week.
* $EURUSD is in a weak bull market.
And here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:
| Daily | Current | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,059.88 | 3,933.55 | 6.28 | 34 | 7.76 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,805.81 | 1,768.42 | 6.73 | 35 | 6.78 | |
| Nikkei | 15,661.87 | 14,994.19 | 8.94 | 13 | 7.80 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,650.60 | 6,690.07 | -1.66 | 3 | 0.22 | |
| DAX | 9,405.29 | 9,058.40 | 8.61 | 36 | 8.04 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 104.45 | 105.00 | -1.50 | 17 | -0.47 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,252.50 | 1,284.01 | -5.03 | 18 | -4.51 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3591 | 1.3487 | 2.41 | 5 | 0.32 | |
| Oil (CL) | 92.72 | 96.28 | -2.27 | 52 | -11.50 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:
* We see some weakening in the daily picture for several stock indexes. The Nasdaq and DAX continue to go strong, but the S&P 500 and Nikkei have seen daily MoM turn down, which puts them in the weak bullish – may have peaked category.
* The FTSE 100 has fallen below its daily key level last Tuesday and is in declining mode now. Notice how daily MoM indicator for FTSE100 has been warning for weeks already. This is how it is supposed to work.
* Bonds (TLT) remain in the “may have bottomed” (pink) category and are coming close to their daily key reversal level. A close above 105 is what it would take to turn TLT to green again.
* Gold came within 1% of our bottom target at $1215 and bounced back upwards. Daily MoM has turned up from a very low level, so gold may have seen at least a medium term bottom here. Can do some speculative buying of beaten down gold miner stocks at this point.
* The $EURUSD is continuing its fresh rally, and for oil we wait for signs of a bottom.
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top | Top2 | Bottom | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4200 | – | 3530 | 3210 |
| S&P 500 | 1820 | 1870 * | 1576 | 1522 |
| Nikkei | 15850 | 16580 | 12710 | 10450 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7150 | 6205 | 6110 |
| DAX | 9310 | 9480 | 7870 | 7210 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 128.50 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1448 | 1540 | 1215 | 1153 * |
| EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.2870 | 1.2350 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.40 | 121 | 89.50 | 86.00 * |
(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Important developments last week:
* For S&P 500 we have a new top target at 1870. For gold we have a new bottom target at 1153. For oil there is a new bottom target at 86.
* The Nasdaq has finally pushed above its top target and we can now set sights on 4200.
* The Nikkei has come within 1% of its top target at 15850, and appears to be stalling there.
* The DAX is probably going towards its Top2 target at 9480
* Bonds (TLT) survived another test of their long standing bottom target at 102
* Oil has broken below its bottom target at 94.30, so 89.50 is now the next level to watch.
PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.
Good luck,
Danny
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Key reversal levels for week of November 11, 2013
Posted by Danny on November 10, 2013
Here is our key reversal table for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 3,919.23 | 3,641.07 | 8.33 | 44 | 26.87 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,770.61 | 1,666.31 | 6.61 | 49 | 25.01 | |
| Nikkei | 14,086.79 | 13,430.01 | 1.94 | 50 | 48.81 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,708.39 | 6,450.52 | 2.90 | 17 | 2.50 | |
| DAX | 9,078.28 | 8,511.13 | 7.43 | 17 | 10.20 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 103.41 | 108.49 | -0.12 | 25 | -10.75 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,288.20 | 1,398.02 | -1.69 | 46 | -22.25 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3366 | 1.3288 | 4.03 | 15 | 0.63 | |
| Oil (CL) | 94.60 | 103.06 | -3.44 | 2 | -3.35 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:
* Covered stock indexes continue to be bullish on the weekly level. Weekly MoM remains to the upside, with the exception of Nikkei.
* Bonds (TLT) seem to have missed the chance to go into bullish mode. Weekly MoM is still positive, but time is running out and a continuation of the bear market is becoming increasingly likely.
* For gold we see weekly MoM turning back down again this week. Gold hasn’t been able to climb above its weekly key reversal level and the bear market continues. Patience required.
* The EURUSD continues to weaken as well. It is coming very close to testing its key reversal level at 1.3288.
And here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:
| Daily | Current | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 3,919.23 | 3,852.98 | 1.83 | 20 | 4.03 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,770.61 | 1,732.00 | 4.00 | 21 | 4.70 | |
| Nikkei | 14,086.79 | 14,407.05 | -2.51 | 4 | -1.63 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,708.39 | 6,614.11 | 3.86 | 18 | 2.43 | |
| DAX | 9,078.28 | 8,841.75 | 5.80 | 21 | 4.29 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 103.41 | 106.34 | -4.73 | 3 | -1.46 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,288.20 | 1,331.92 | -1.84 | 3 | -1.79 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3366 | 1.3605 | -5.89 | 6 | -1.59 | |
| Oil (CL) | 94.60 | 98.78 | -7.07 | 38 | -9.71 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:
* Daily momentum (MoM) continues to go down for all covered stock indexes. Most markets (except Nikkei) have kept above their key reversal levels, so they remain in rally mode but we have to monitor ongoing developments closely.
* Bonds (TLT) are in declining mode and no signs of the MoM indicator turning up.
* Gold has fallen below its daily key reversal level last week and is now in declining mode again. Too early to buy.
* $EURUSD continues to sink and its momentum remains down.
* Oil (CL) has stabilized near our bottom target at $94 and the daily MoM is turning up from a very depressed level. That makes oil a speculative buy at this point, but a further drop towards $89 cannot be ruled out, so I wouldn’t risk more than $1/barrel on it.
Lastly, the key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top | Top2 | Bottom | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 3975 | 4200 | 3530 | 3210 |
| S&P 500 | 1799 | 1820 | 1576 | 1522 |
| Nikkei | 15850 | 16580 | 12710 | 10450 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7150 | 6205 | 6110 |
| DAX | 9310 | 9480 | 7870 | 7210 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 128.50 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1448 | 1540 | 1215 | 1078 |
| EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 * | 1.2870 | 1.2350 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.40 | 121 | 94.30 | 89.50 |
(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Important developments last week:
* There is a new top target for $EURUSD at 1.42.
* The Nasdaq continues to push into its 3930-3975 top target. A second or third attempt is often successful. If it breaks out to the upside then start watching for 4200.
* Bonds (TLT) are close to testing their long standing bottom target at 102 again. That bottom held in August-September, but on a third attempt it is likely to give way. If so, we will start looking for 96.25
* In the gold market we can set sights on the first bottom target near $1215.
* Oil has survived the first test of its $94.30 bottom target.
PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.
Good luck,
Danny
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Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: DAX, FTSE 100 Index, key levels, Nasdaq, S&P 500 | Leave a Comment »
Key reversal levels for week of November 4, 2013
Posted by Danny on November 3, 2013
Note: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account. I cannot cover every market or stock, but I do plan to increase coverage. Here on the blog I will stick to my weekly post covering the reversals for major markets, gold, oil and euro/usd. The rest goes out through twitter. If you have any question or suggestion, just use the comments space here.
OK. Here is the key reversal table for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 3,922.04 | 3,618.46 | 8.23 | 43 | 26.96 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,761.64 | 1,656.23 | 5.54 | 48 | 24.38 | |
| Nikkei | 14,201.57 | 13,369.22 | 2.24 | 49 | 50.03 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,734.70 | 6,427.16 | 2.24 | 16 | 2.90 | |
| DAX | 9,007.83 | 8,444.49 | 6.83 | 16 | 9.35 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 106.19 | 109.10 | -0.48 | 24 | -8.84 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,315.81 | 1,403.05 | -1.42 | 45 | -20.58 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3489 | 1.3288 | 4.92 | 14 | 1.56 | |
| Oil (CL) | 94.61 | 103.60 | -2.21 | 1 | -3.34 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:
* Covered stock indexes remain bullish, with Nikkei showing some weakness in the form of falling momentum (MoM). All markets stay well above their weekly key reversal levels.
* Bonds (TLT) have stagnated just below their weekly key reversal level. A weekly close above 109.10 would be a long term bullish sign.
* The EURUSD has weakened and its weekly MoM has now turned down. A weekly close below 1.3288 would indicate the start of a bear market for the Euro.
And here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:
| Daily | Current | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 3,922.04 | 3,832.00 | 6.49 | 15 | 4.10 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,761.64 | 1,721.22 | 8.04 | 16 | 4.17 | |
| Nikkei | 14,201.57 | 14,456.77 | -0.88 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,734.70 | 6,580.06 | 8.39 | 13 | 2.83 | |
| DAX | 9,007.83 | 8,776.50 | 8.18 | 16 | 3.48 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 106.19 | 107.16 | 3.07 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,315.81 | 1,313.33 | 2.46 | 8 | -1.78 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3489 | 1.3681 | 1.85 | 1 | -0.68 | |
| Oil (CL) | 94.61 | 100.47 | -5.92 | 33 | -9.70 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:
* The Nikkei continues to show weakness and all other covered stock indexes are now also displaying a declining MoM, which is typically the first warning sign after a rally. This means a downturn could be imminent. Not a bad idea to take some profits here, or move your stops closer to the market.
* Bonds (TLT) have fallen below their daily key reversal and are now in declining mode again. The recent rally has failed to lift bonds above their weekly key reversal level, and this suggests the path of least resistance remains down.
* Gold has not done so well last week, and is only barely holding above its daily key reversal level. MoM has turned down as well.
* $EURUSD has weakened significantly and crashed below its daily key level last Thursday. A clear sign to sell Euro.
* Oil (CL) has dropped further, but the daily MoM is turning up, which means oil is getting ready for some rebound move.
And here are our key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top | Top2 | Bottom | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 3975 | 4200 * | 3530 | 3210 |
| S&P 500 | 1799 | 1820 | 1576 | 1522 |
| Nikkei | 15850 | 16580 | 12710 | 10450 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7150 * | 6205 | 6110 |
| DAX | 9310 | 9480 * | 7870 | 7210 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 128.50 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1448 | 1540 | 1215 | 1078 |
| EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.55 | 1.2870 | 1.2350 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.40 | 121 | 94.30 | 89.50 |
(* = new target, Bold = closely matches a major weekly key target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Important developments last week:
* There are new top targets for Nasdaq at 4200, for DAX at 9480, and an adjusted target for FTSE 100 at 7150.
* The Nasdaq continues to stagnate at its 3930-3975 top target levels.
* The FTSE 100 has touched its 6800 target and reversed promptly.
* $EURUSD came within 1% of its 1.3950 top target, and then sold off.
* Oil has nicely reached its $94.30 bottom target. Look for oil to find some support at this level. If not, the door to $89.50 will open.
Good luck,
Danny
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Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: DAX, FTSE 100 Index, key levels, Nasdaq, S&P 500 | Leave a Comment »
LunaticTrader 
Key reversal levels for week of August 4, 2014
Posted by Danny on August 3, 2014
Our key tables and comments for this week, now in slideshow format. Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode. Click on “Slideshare” (bottom left) if you want to save and print it.
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then you can also click here.
Good luck, Danny
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Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: DAX, Euro, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, oil | 2 Comments »