LunaticTrader

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Posts Tagged ‘DAX’

Key reversal levels for week of October 20, 2013

Posted by Danny on October 20, 2013

I have now automated the calculation of my key reversals to a large extent, saving me time, and from this week onwards the presentation format is changed a bit. The weekly and the daily reversal tables are now shown separately, making space for some additional info to be shown.
A long term investor can do well by going with the weekly table only, while a shorter term swing trader would rather use the daily table and try to trade with the daily trend. But, it is always good to look at the bigger weekly picture first and then consider the daily moves.
Let’s start it off with the new weekly table:

Weekly Current BB Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch
Nasdaq 3,914.28 3,555.21 6.74 41 26.71
S&P 500 1,744.50 1,632.76 3.10 46 23.17
Nikkei 14,561.54 13,219.07 2.46 47 53.83
FTSE 100 6,622.60 6,369.00 0.59 14 1.19
DAX 8,865.09 8,300.57 5.24 14 7.61
Bonds (TLT) 107.04 109.20 -2.20 22 -8.11
Gold (spot) 1,315.88 1,408.91 -1.60 43 -20.58
$EURUSD 1.3682 1.3224 4.36 12 3.01
Oil (CL) 101.11 99.74 0.11 24 5.79

(Legend:  BB: green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM: MoM indicator | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish trend | % Ch: percent change since start of current trend)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

So what’s new?

The bullish or bearish status is now given as a bright green or red color in the BB column. Next to it you find our key reversal level, which is the level to watch for stop-loss or for entering/reversing positions, always to be used based on close prices only.
The MoM indicator comes next. It is now printed in green when the MoM is going up, and in red when MoM is going down.
Then we have two new columns. The first one shows us how many weeks have passed since the given market started its current trend, with the last column showing the percentage change since the beginning of that trend. For example, we can see the Nasdaq has now been in bullish(green) status for 41 weeks, and has gone up 26.71%. Bonds have been bearish for 22 weeks and are down 8.11% over that period.

You can see that all markets here have been moving in the expected direction, as the %Ch is displayed in light green. Whenever a market has gone against the expected trend, the %Ch is displayed in pink.
More on that later.

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* All covered stock indexes remain in weekly up trends and now have upward weekly MoM again. As we pointed out last week, MoM turning back up soon was an important condition for the bull market to continue, and that’s what happened.

* Bonds (TLT) have been bearish for 22 weeks, but MoM is to the upside and TLT is once again closing in on its weekly key reversal level. A weekly close above 109.20 would be a long term bullish sign.

* Gold remains bearish with downward MoM on the weekly level.

* The EURUSD is quietly grinding upwards. Has appreciated only 3% in 12 weeks, but sometimes these stealth bull markets have long ways to go. Time will tell.

* Oil is still bullish, but weekly MoM is to the downside and oil is getting very close to falling below its key reversal level. A weekly close below $99.74 would be a long term bearish sign.

Here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:

Daily Current BB Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch
Nasdaq 3,914.28 3,752.96 5.15 5 3.90
S&P 500 1,744.50 1,685.81 5.56 6 3.16
Nikkei 14,561.54 14,223.92 2.75 5 1.09
FTSE 100 6,622.60 6,473.73 3.60 3 1.12
DAX 8,865.09 8,606.24 6.88 6 1.84
Bonds (TLT) 107.04 105.30 0.35 1 -0.07
Gold (spot) 1,315.88 1,328.31 -2.20 26 -0.39
$EURUSD 1.3682 1.3481 2.14 27 2.79
Oil (CL) 101.11 103.92 -2.65 23 -3.49

(Legend: BB : green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM: MoM indicator | Days: days since start of current rally or decline | % Ch: percent change since start of current move)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Note: here we see an example of %Ch displayed in pink. Bonds are in rally mode (green) since 1 day, but the price has gone the other way so far.

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* All covered stock markets are in fresh rallies with upward MoM.

* Bonds (TLT) are in rally mode again.

* Gold is closing in on its daily key reversal level, and MoM has turned up again. That’s the first good news in quite a while for gold. Now we have to see whether it can close above that daily key reversal level at $1328.30

* $EURUSD is quietly ticking upwards.

* Oil (CL) is quietly sinking downwards.

And here are our key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top Top2 Bottom Bottom2
Nasdaq 3930 3530 3210
S&P 500 1799 1820 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 16580 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7100 6205 6110
DAX 8920 9310 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1078
EURUSD 1.36 1.3950 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 94.30 89.50

(* = new target, Bold = closely matches a major weekly key target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* We have no new targets this week.

* The Nasdaq has broken through the 3830 target, and is already testing the 3930 level, which is the next hurdle.

* The S&P has also broken above the 1730 target. Here we set sights on 1799 and 1820 next.

* $EURUSD is still testing the 1.36 top target. If it goes a little bit higher then 1.3950 will be the next top target.

Good luck,

Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of September 30, 2013

Posted by Danny on September 29, 2013

Our key reversal levels going into next week:

Current Status Key (W) MoM (W) Mode Key (D) MoM (D)
Nasdaq 3782 BULL S: 3499.80 6.57 (6.13) RALLY S: 3717 5.17 (5.69)
S&P 500 1692 BULL S: 1618.60 2.71 (2.50) RALLY S: 1678.50 3.4 (4.86)
Nikkei 14760 BULL S: 13012 2.44 (1.64) RALLY S: 14206 5.21 (5.58)
FTSE 100 6513 BULL S: 6365 1.40 (1.47) DECLINE * R: 6585 0.07 (0.79)
DAX 8661 BULL S: 8158 3.15 (2.54) RALLY S: 8502 6.17 (7.0)
Bonds (TLT) 106.56 BEAR R: 110.43 -5.0 (-5.83) RALLY S: 104.71 5.62 (5.19)
Gold (spot) 1336.51 BEAR R: 1417.50 0.12 (0.43) DECLINE R: 1363.50 -2.38 (-2.69)
EURUSD 1.3520 BULL S: 1.3131 2.71 (2.24) RALLY S: 1.3363 5.81 (6.49)
Oil (CL) 102.87 BULL S: 99.52 3.20 (4.26) DECLINE R: 106.03 -4.95 (-4.76)

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, MoM = MoM indicator, * = changed from last week)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the key reversal levels last week:

* Stock markets seem to be going through an ordinary pullback and stay in rally mode, except for the FTSE100, which continues to display weakness and has fallen into decline mode.

* Daily MoM is down for all markets, showing that the pullback is ongoing, but weekly MoM remains up so there is no reason for panic

* Bonds (TLT) have continued to rally and are now close to testing their weekly key reversal level.

* Gold remains in fully bearish mode. Weekly MoM is still down, while daily MoM is slightly to the upside. Still too early to buy.

* The EURUSD has held on the recent gains, but the daily MoM has turned down, which is a first sign that the rally may have ended. I would sell EURUSD as soon as we see a daily close below the key reversal level at 1.3363

* Oil has continued to go down and may soon be testing its weekly key reversal level. A weekly close below $99.52 would mean that oil has gone into bear status.

 

And here are our key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

 Key Targets Top Top2 Bottom Bottom2
Nasdaq 3830 3930 3530  3210
S&P 500 1738 1799 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 * 16580 12710  10450
FTSE 100 6800 7100 6205 6110
DAX 8920 9205 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 128.50 134 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1078
EURUSD 1.36 1.3950 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 89.50 77

(* = new target, Bold = closely matches a major weekly key target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* We have a new top target for Nikkei index at 15850

* The EURUSD remains stuck near its upside target at 1.36

 

Good luck,

Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of September 23, 2013

Posted by Danny on September 21, 2013

Our key reversal levels going into next week:

Current Status Key (W) MoM (W) Mode Key (D) MoM (D)
Nasdaq 3775 BULL S: 3473 6.13 (5.94) RALLY S: 3687 7.80 (7.49)
S&P 500 1710 BULL S: 1611.60 2.50 (2.31) RALLY S: 1671.80 8.46 (8.41)
Nikkei 14742 BULL S: 12908 1.64 (1.08) RALLY S: 14064 5.78 (5.69)
FTSE 100 6596 BULL S: 6354 1.47 (1.43) RALLY S: 6519 2.79 (2.98)
DAX 8676 BULL S: 8096 2.54 (2.04) RALLY S: 8421 8.28 (8.16)
Bonds (TLT) 104.92 BEAR R: 110.70 -5.83 (-6.28) RALLY * S: 103.52 0.59 (-0.38)
Gold (spot) 1325.6 BEAR R: 1423.10 0.43 (0.57) DECLINE R: 1372.90 -3.36 (-3.89)
EURUSD 1.3525 BULL S: 1.3098 2.24 (2.01) RALLY S: 1.3286 5.79 (4.56)
Oil (CL) 104.75 BULL S: 99.28 4.26 (4.94) DECLINE * R: 108.00 -1.97 (-1.34)

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, MoM = MoM indicator, * = changed from last week)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the key reversal levels last week:

* Stock markets have continued to rally, and weekly MoM is now up again for all covered markets. Daily MoM is slightly down for FTSE100, which has been lagging a bit, but remains up for the other markets.

* For S&P 500 and DAX we see that MoM has climbed into the very optimistic +8 area, with the Nasdaq also getting close. They can stay above 8 for a while, but a pullback will start sooner or later. When MoM starts pulling back from levels above 8, that’s when I start trailing my stop-loss very close to the market. See my recent post: Trailing stops when you think a peak is near

* Bonds (TLT) have gone into rally mode, as was already suggested by rising MoM last week. Coming off a double bottom, this rally has better chances of seeing some follow through than the failed breakout we got in August.

* Gold bounced back towards its daily key reversal level last week, but failed to get above it and closed the week nearly unchanged. The picture remains bearish. Weekly MoM has turned down, while the daily MoM has turned up with the mid-week bounce.

* The EURUSD rally has gathered some steam last week, so maybe the breakout from choppy range will be unexpectedly to the upside. But, our 1.36 target level will have to be taken out if this rally is to continue (see target zones).

* Oil has gone into decline mode again, as was indicated by weakening MoM already. Also here it could mark the end of a choppy trading range. I am now looking for the weekly key reversal level to get tested, currently at $99.28

 

And here are our key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

 Key Targets Top Top2 Bottom Bottom2
Nasdaq 3830 3930 3530  3210
S&P 500 1738 1799 1576 1522
Nikkei 16580 17980 12710  10450
FTSE 100 6800 * 7100 6205 6110
DAX 8920 9205 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 128.50 134 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 * 1078
EURUSD 1.36 1.3950 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 89.50 77

(* = new target, Bold = closely matches a major weekly key target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* We have a new bottom target for gold at $1215.

* The top target for FTSE100 at 6750 has been refined to 6800

* The Nasdaq and the DAX have broken above their first top target. Next up for Nasdaq is now 3830 and for the DAX 8920.

* The S&P came close to its top target at 1738 and turned back down from it.

* Bonds (TLT) retested their bottom target at 102, and bounced back up from it.

* The EURUSD is also testing its upside target at 1.36

 

Good luck,

Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of August 19, 2013

Posted by Danny on August 18, 2013

Our key reversal levels going into next week:

Status Key (W) Mom (W) Mode Key (D) Mom (D)
Nasdaq BULL S: 3379 Up DECLINE R: 3632 Down
S&P 500 BULL S: 1589.20 Down * DECLINE R: 1684.10 Down
Nikkei BULL S: 12573 Down DECLINE R: 14115 Up
FTSE 100 BULL S: 6304 Up DECLINE R: 6582 Down
DAX BULL S: 7957 Up RALLY S: 8263 Up
Bonds (TLT) BEAR R: 113.88 Down * DECLINE R: 106.80 Down
Gold (spot) BEAR R: 1431 Up RALLY S: 1301 Up
Euro/US$ BULL S: 1.3022 Up RALLY S: 1.3190 Down
Crude Oil(CL) BULL S: 96.59 Up RALLY S: 104.33 Up

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, Mom = momentum, * = change from previous week/day)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* Most stock markets have fallen below their daily key levels and have thus gone into decline mode. This means we could go on to test their weekly key levels.

* The DAX is showing more strength and remains in rally mode.

* The weekly momentum for the S&P 500 has turned down, adding to the warning signs that stock markets have been giving in recent weeks.

* Bonds (TLT) were rejected as they came close to their daily key level, and have now seen their daily momentum turn down again.  The weekly momentum has turned down again as well. So, it’s back to a fully bearish picture for bonds and we wait for the next signs of a potential upturn.

* Gold has broken above its daily key level last Monday, and is now in rally mode again. The next big hurdle is the weekly key reversal level, currently at $1431. A weekly close above that level would put gold in bull status.

* The Euro/US$ remains in rally mode, but only barely so. It will take a push above the 1.34 level to turn its daily momentum back up and keep the rally going.

* Oil continues to try to the upside. But here it will take a push above $110 to keep this rally going. A drop back below the daily key level at $104.33 would leave a triple top on the charts.

 

My method to generate these key reversal levels also generates certain price levels as a by-product. I have noticed that these price levels often mark future tops or bottoms, which can come months or even more than a year after these price levels first stand out from my calculations. These target prices do not appear very often, so they can remain in play for months.
For example for the S&P 500 it currently gives me an upside target of 1799 and a downside target of 1522.
For gold it projects an upside target of 1448 and the downside target is 1001.
For bonds(TLT) it gives a downside target of 102, so that one is now coming close to target.
For oil the upside target is 121, with downside targets of 89.50 and 77.

Remember, not all of these target levels are going to be reached. But when such a target level is reached (give or take 1%) then it may be the end of the move or at least the start of a significant pause in the move.

If readers are interested then I will look for a way to add this info in the weekly key tables.

Good luck,
Danny

 

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Downside targets for the S&P 500

Posted by Danny on August 16, 2013

Markets broke down yesterday.
This means the window for potential new highs is now going to be closed for a while.
Looking for possible downside targets, this chart can become useful (click for larger image):

S&P 500

The important green trend line was now clearly broken again, and this means the first support should come at the blue line, currently around 1620.
Below that we also have 1575 and 1535 as next lower targets where support is likely.
These are targets for a mild correction, which could last 6 to 8 weeks.
If the 1535 level gets broken convincingly, then a longer bear market becomes likely.

Yesterday’s drops have also sent most stock markets into decline mode on the basis of my key reversal levels.

The Nasdaq is now in decline mode with a daily key reversal level of 3634. So, a daily close above 3634 would swing it back into rally mode.
The S&P 500 is also in decline mode with a daily key reversal level at 1687.
The FTSE 100 has entered decline mode as well, with its daily key reversal now at 6591.
The DAX index remains in rally mode, and continues to do so as long as it closes above its daily key, currently at 8256.
More on the key reversals in my weekend post.

Good luck,
Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of August 12, 2013

Posted by Danny on August 11, 2013

Our key reversal levels going into next week:

  Status Key (W) Mom (W) Mode Key (D) Mom (D)
Nasdaq BULL S: 3375 Up RALLY S: 3597 Down
S&P 500 BULL S: 1586.80 Up RALLY S: 1675.70 Down
Nikkei BULL S: 12623 Down * DECLINE R: 14207 Down
FTSE 100 BULL S: 6296 Up RALLY S: 6508 Down
DAX BULL S: 7925 Up RALLY S: 8227 Down
Bonds (TLT) BEAR R: 114.34 Up * DECLINE R: 107.81 Up
Gold (spot) BEAR R: 1422 Up DECLINE R: 1314.60 Up *
Euro/US$ BULL S: 1.3001 Up RALLY S: 1.3171 Up
Crude Oil(CL) BULL S: 97.10 Up RALLY * S: 103.59 Down

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, Mom = momentum, * = change from previous week/day)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* The weekly momentum for the Nikkei index has turned down, which means the continuation of its bull status is in question. The 12623 level is now the major key reversal level, which has to hold on a weekly closing basis.

* All covered stock markets have seen their daily momentum turn down last week. Not a reason for instant panic, but we now watch whether these markets can stay in rally mode or fall into declining mode, as the Nikkei has done already. The FTSE100 is very close to electing decline mode, and also the S&P 500 is sitting only 1% above its daily key reversal level.

* Last week we said clouds are starting to gather above stock markets, and that has continued last week. This is how a fully bullish picture weakens gradually, and that’s why it is useful to keep an eye on several major stock markets.

* The picture for bonds (TLT) is improving. The daily momentum turned up last Wednesday and now the weekly momentum has turned up as well. Bonds are close to going into rally mode, which would mean we can set sights on rising to the weekly key level at 114.34.

* Gold has fallen below its daily key last week and is now in decline mode again. The good news is that we didn’t see much follow through to the downside, and more importantly, the daily momentum for gold turned back up on Friday. A daily close above $1314.60 will put gold back in rally mode, and would be a signal to buy.

* The Euro/US$ is back to a fully bullish picture. But it’s daily momentum is starting to flatten out and may turn down next week.

* Crude oil continues to look for direction. It fell below its daily key level on Thursday, only to climb right back into rally mode on Friday. There seems to be strong buying at the $103 level, but at this point it is tough to say where it will go next. The daily momentum for oil remains down at the moment, so unless we see good follow through next week this may prove to be another dead cat bounce.

Good luck,

Danny

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Quick mid-week update

Posted by Danny on August 7, 2013

Yesterday gold closed below its daily key reversal level, which puts it in decline mode again. This means gold could now go on to retest the June lows.
The daily key reversal for gold is now at $1315.30, so it takes a close back above that level to switch into rally mode again.

Stock markets have started the week fairly poorly and seem to struggle to add to recent gains. The time window where we could see further new highs is slowly closing. There is still room for another spike to the upside, but it has to come before the upside momentum wanes too much.
Several market indices have already seen their daily momentum turn down yesterday. This includes the DAX, the Dow Jones Industrials and the FTSE100. For these indices you can start using my trailing stop method, using a stop-sell order below yesterday’s low. See: Trailing stops when you think a peak is near.
Meanwhile, the Nikkei has switched into decline mode already.
So, we see clouds starting to gather above world stock markets.

For those indices that still have upward daily momentum we keep a close eye on the daily key reversal levels. For the S&P 500 the daily key is now at 1676.60, for the Nasdaq it stands at 3583.
Daily closes below these levels would signal the start of the correction we are expecting this autumn. In that case we will have to forget about new highs for a while.

Crude oil is also acting weak again, failing to build on last week’s rebound. If it closes below its daily key at $103.75, then the recent rally in oil prices is probably over. A drop back to $95 or even $85 will then be in the cards.

A couple months from now, I think we will be looking at higher bond prices, lower stocks, lower oil and lower gold. But the transition will probably not happen overnight, unless triggered by an external shock. We will be getting mixed signals for a few weeks, and then clear moves will emerge.

Good luck,
Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of July 22, 2013

Posted by Danny on July 20, 2013

Our key reversal levels going into next week:

Status Key (W) Mom (W) Mode Key (D) Mom (D)
Nasdaq BULL S: 3294 Up RALLY S: 3502 Down *
S&P 500 BULL S: 1563 Up RALLY S: 1647.50 Up
Nikkei BULL S: 12450 Up RALLY S: 13885 Down *
FTSE 100 BULL S: 6249 Up RALLY S: 6420 Up
DAX BULL S: 7819 Up * RALLY S: 8087 Up
Bonds (TLT) BEAR R: 116.40 Down DECLINE R: 110.44 Up
Gold (spot) BEAR R: 1448 Up * DECLINE R: 1295.55 Up
Euro/US$ BEAR R: 1.3186 Up * RALLY * R: 1.3035 Up
Crude Oil(CL) BULL S: 93.47 Up RALLY S: 101.88 Up

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, Mom = momentum, * = change from previous week/day)

Important developments:

* The weekly momentum for Dax is now Up, as was already the case for the other covered stock markets.

* For most stock markets the daily momentum is now stalling and for the Nasdaq and Nikkei it has turned Down already. This is the first sign of a potential peak. When that happens it is not a reason for instant panic, but it is a sign to get more careful and protect your profits with a well chosen stop-loss. When daily momentum turns down after a significant rally, then I start putting my stop-loss a few ticks below the previous day’s low. This often keeps me in the rally if there is more to come (which then turns the daily momentum back up after a few days), and if weakness continues then I get stopped out for a nice profit. E.g. Friday’s low for the Nasdaq was 3578.57, so for Monday I put my stop at ~3578.50. The Nasdaq has been in rally mode since it closed above 3435 in early July, so this locks in some 130 points profit in just two weeks, with potentially more to come if the daily momentum turns back up before the stop-loss gets hit.

* Gold has continued to fail at its daily key reversal, so remains in declining mode. But its weekly momentum is now turning up, be it tentatively. This is a first sign that it could go on to test its weekly key resistance (currently at $1448), but to do so it will need to take the next hurdle by closing above that daily key. Gold has now been stuck just below its daily key resistance for 7 trading days in a row, so it will be interesting to see which way it goes. I think we will find out next week.

* The Euro has shifted into rally mode last week, and also its weekly momentum is now turning up. Positive developments, but we need to get follow through. The Euro is in a rather narrow sideways range, and that’s why the weekly and daily key reversal levels are so close to each other. In that case the momentum can turn several times before a clear trending move emerges.

* Oil has continued to push higher, but its daily momentum is now starting to stall and may turn down next week. I keep a stop-loss near $105 and will move my stop closer to the market if the daily momentum turns down.

PS: I try to send out timely tweets when major markets are at important junctures, so follow @lunatictrader1 if you want to be kept up to date.

Good luck,
Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of July 15, 2013

Posted by Danny on July 13, 2013

Our key reversal levels going into next week:

Status Key (W) Mom (W) Mode Key (D) Mom (D)
Nasdaq BULL S: 3271 Up * RALLY S: 3444 Up
S&P 500 BULL S: 1554 Up * RALLY S: 1626 Up
Nikkei BULL S: 12324 Up * RALLY S: 13694 Up
FTSE 100 BULL S: 6227 Up * RALLY S: 6358 Up
DAX BULL * S: 7785 Down RALLY * S: 8015 Up
Bonds (TLT) BEAR R: 116.98 Down DECLINE R: 111.20 Up *
Gold (spot) BEAR R: 1462 Down DECLINE R: 1294.40 Up
Euro/US$ BEAR R: 1.3188 Down DECLINE R: 1.3102 Up *
Crude Oil(CL) BULL S: 92.46 Up RALLY S: 98.77 Up

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, Mom = momentum, * = change from previous week/day)

Important developments:

* The Dax has joined the other stock markets into bull status and rally mode by closing above its key resistance levels.

* The weekly momentum is now up for all covered stock markets, except the Dax, which remains in downward weekly momentum.

* Bonds (TLT) has entered upward daily momentum again, so it could go on to challenge its daily key resistance at 111.20 next.

* Gold tested its daily key resistance level last week, but failed to close above it, so it’s too early to declare rally mode. It now needs a close above $1294.40

* The Euro/US$ has shifted into upwards daily momentum, and tested its daily key reversal. It also failed to close above it, so remains in declining mode.

* Crude Oil has continued to rally strongly. We now wait for daily momentum to turn down, which would be the first sign to take some profits in oil.

 

Good luck,

Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of July 8, 2013

Posted by Danny on July 8, 2013

Our key reversal levels going into next week:

Status Key (W) Mom (W) Mode Key (D) Mom (D)
Nasdaq BULL S: 3255 Down RALLY S: 3406 Up
S&P 500 BULL S: 1548 Down RALLY * S: 1612 Up
Nikkei BULL S: 12202 Down RALLY S: 13368 Up
FTSE 100 BULL * S: 6222 Down RALLY S: 6315 Up
DAX BEAR R: 8082 Down DECLINE R: 8105 Up
Bonds (TLT) BEAR R: 117.81 Down DECLINE R: 112.60 Down *
Gold (spot) BEAR R: 1479 Down DECLINE R: 1306 Up
Euro/US$ BEAR * R: 1.3188 Down DECLINE R: 1.3130 Down
Crude Oil(CL) BULL S: 91.77 Up RALLY S: 95.78 Up

(Legend: W = weekly, D = daily, R = resistance, S = support, Mom = momentum, * = change from previous week/day)

Important developments:

* Most stock markets are in rally mode again and the daily momentum remains up. The FTSE 100 has closed above its weekly key and is now in bull status.

* Only the German DAX index is lagging and has not yet made it above its key reversal levels, although its daily momentum is still up.

* The weekly momentum remains down for all stock markets, which means more strength is needed before we can declare the recent market correction over.

* Bonds (TLT) has seen its daily momentum turn down again, which means it is too early to declare a short term bottom.

* Gold is seeing its first positive sign in a long time, as its daily momentum has turned up last week. This means there is a good chance it will go on to test its daily key reversal level, which is currently at $1306. A close above that level would mean gold has entered rally mode. A failure to close above its daily key reversal in the coming weeks will mean that the decline is ongoing.

* The Euro has weakened further and closed the week below its key support, which means it is now in bear status.

* Oil has continued to rise and remains positive on a weekly and daily basis.

 

Good luck,

Danny

 

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