Here are the monthly key reversal levels going into January 2014:
| Monthly | Current | Mode | Key (M) | MoM (M) | Months | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,176.58 | 3,307.92 | 8.99 | 49 | 93.16 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,848.36 | 1,531.01 | 8.45 | 23 | 40.83 | |
| Nikkei | 16,291.30 | 12,309.63 | 8.45 | 12 | 53.63 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,749.10 | 6,150.57 | 4.43 | 13 | 15.04 | |
| DAX | 9,552.16 | 7,703.62 | 7.89 | 22 | 39.82 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 101.86 | 113.53 | -4.25 | 6 | -6.20 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,205.25 | 1,484.69 | -5.41 | 8 | -18.36 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3777 | 1.3010 | 2.54 | 3 | 1.86 | |
| Oil (CL) | 98.42 | 101.63 | 1.51 | 1 | 6.16 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Months: months since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Observations:
* World stock markets remain long term bullish with upward momentum. But for most markets we see MoM at very optimistic +8 levels, which means there is elevated potential for a significant correction to start.
* Bonds, gold and oil remain bearish, so for long term investors it is better to wait until MoM turns up for them.
And here are the monthly key reversal levels for other world markets:
| Monthly | Current | Mode | Key (M) | MoM (M) | Months | % Ch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia (AORD) | 5,353.10 | 4,764.84 | 6.08 | 14 | 18.03 | |
| Brazil (BOVESPA) | 51,507.00 | 56,578.37 | -2.56 | 19 | -5.47 | |
| Canada (TSX) | 13,621.60 | 12,398.22 | 3.53 | 11 | 6.91 | |
| China (SSEC) | 2,115.98 | 2,311.32 | -1.10 | 43 | -17.91 | |
| Dow Jones Industrials | 16,576.66 | 14,087.45 | 7.28 | 26 | 38.70 | |
| France (CAC40) | 4,295.95 | 3,720.05 | 6.52 | 12 | 16.02 | |
| Gold stocks (XAU) | 84.15 | 145.65 | -6.13 | 24 | -53.51 | |
| Hong Kong (HSI) | 23,306.39 | 21,335.82 | 2.15 | 14 | 8.03 | |
| India (SENSEX) | 21,170.68 | 18,308.18 | 3.48 | 15 | 12.70 | |
| Indonesia (JCI) | 4,274.18 | 4,083.14 | -0.30 | 54 | 110.87 | |
| Italy (MIB) | 18,967.70 | 16,207.22 | 3.98 | 3 | 8.50 | |
| Malaysia (KLCI) | 1,866.96 | 1,635.37 | 6.05 | 53 | 58.90 | |
| Mexico (IPC) | 42,727.09 | 39,337.24 | -0.38 | 53 | 57.82 | |
| Russell 2000 | 1,163.64 | 939.44 | 8.46 | 23 | 46.00 | |
| Singapore (STI) | 3,167.43 | 3,036.31 | 0.51 | 17 | 4.32 | |
| South Africa (JOHA) | 46,256.23 | 37,951.35 | 8.26 | 50 | 75.48 | |
| South Korea (KOSPI) | 2,011.34 | 1,890.61 | 0.93 | 3 | 0.69 | |
| Spain (IBEX35) | 9,916.70 | 8,185.04 | 4.73 | 3 | 8.05 | |
| Switzerland (SMI) | 8,203.00 | 7,177.06 | 7.72 | 17 | 28.19 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Months: months since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Comments:
* Most world markets remain bullish with upward momentum (MoM).
* For gold stocks (XAU index) we see MoM turn up after a 24 month bear market. That means gold stocks are a speculative long term buy at this point.
Good luck and a happy 2014,
Danny
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Key reversal levels for week of January 20, 2014
Posted by Danny on January 18, 2014
Key reversal levels for this week:
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:
* Stock markets did well last week, but weekly momentum (MoM) remains down for US and Japanese indexes. The European markets appear a bit stronger right now.
* Bonds (TLT) are coming very close to their weekly key reversal level. A weekly close above 106.48 would turn bonds bullish for the first time in 35 weeks.
*$EURUSD is holding only barely above its weekly key reversal, so the euro is at risk of turning bearish again.
Daily key reversal levels as of today:
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:
* Stock indexes picked up positive momentum (MoM)) again, with the exception of the Nikkei. But all markets are bumping into their Top 1 target levels (see below), so it remains to be seen if they can push higher already.
* Bonds (TLT) have continued their rally and are close to testing their weekly key reversal level.
* Gold is hesitating while we see MoM turn down for $EURUSD. Watch the evolution for the Euro vs US dollar. If he dollar keeps strengthening then it will start weighing on gold prices.
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Important developments last week:
* A new Top1 target for gold at $1298
* A new Bottom1 target for $EURUSD at 1.3435
* A new Top2 target for the DAX at 10120
* Most stock indexes are once again testing their Top1 targets. On the second (or third) attempt at a target level you usually get the breakout, but if it fails again then you have an increased risk of a serious move in the other direction. So watch these levels carefully.
PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.
Good luck,
Danny
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Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: $EURUSD, FTSE 100 Index, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, S&P 500 | Leave a Comment »