LunaticTrader

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Posts Tagged ‘$EURUSD’

Key reversal levels for week of January 20, 2014

Posted by Danny on January 18, 2014

Key reversal levels for this week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,197.58 3,848.98 8.15 54 35.88
S&P 500 1,838.70 1,758.17 7.06 59 29.82
Nikkei 15,734.46 14,758.35 7.28 60 66.22
FTSE 100 6,829.30 6,559.21 2.01 3 1.16
DAX 9,742.96 8,970.45 6.89 27 18.27
Bonds (TLT) 105.48 106.48 -2.18 35 -8.96
Gold (spot) 1,253.81 1,313.83 -3.74 56 -24.33
$EURUSD 1.3534 1.3455 1.99 25 1.90
Oil (CL) 94.59 100.36 -2.30 12 -3.36

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* Stock markets did well last week, but weekly momentum (MoM) remains down for US and Japanese indexes. The European markets appear a bit stronger right now.

* Bonds (TLT) are coming very close to their weekly key reversal level. A weekly close above 106.48 would turn bonds bullish for the first time in 35 weeks.

*$EURUSD is holding only barely above its weekly key reversal, so the euro is at risk of turning bearish again.

 

Daily key reversal levels as of today:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,197.58 4,121.02 4.93 67 11.42
S&P 500 1,838.70 1,819.93 2.72 20 1.64
Nikkei 15,734.46 15,580.07 -2.15 2 -0.70
FTSE 100 6,829.30 6,668.92 5.75 17 3.37
DAX 9,742.96 9,392.02 6.44 19 6.56
Bonds (TLT) 105.48 103.37 7.18 6 1.65
Gold (spot) 1,253.81 1,226.99 3.76 5 0.47
$EURUSD 1.3534 1.3681 -1.60 10 -0.43
Oil (CL) 94.59 95.58 -4.95 11 -0.92

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* Stock indexes picked up positive momentum (MoM)) again, with the exception of the  Nikkei. But all markets are bumping into their Top 1 target levels (see below), so it remains to be seen if they can push higher already.

* Bonds (TLT) have continued their rally and are close to testing their weekly key reversal level.

* Gold is hesitating while we see MoM turn down for $EURUSD. Watch the evolution for the Euro vs US dollar. If he dollar keeps strengthening then it will start weighing on gold prices.

 

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 4390 3530 3210
S&P 500 1870 1926 1755 1576
Nikkei 17220 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 6110
DAX 9800 10120 * 8715 7870
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1298 * 1448 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 * 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 105 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* A new Top1 target for gold at $1298

* A new Bottom1 target for $EURUSD at 1.3435

* A new Top2 target for the DAX at 10120

* Most stock indexes are once again testing their Top1 targets. On the second (or third) attempt at a target level you usually get the breakout, but if it fails again then you have an increased risk of a serious move in the other direction. So watch these levels carefully.

 

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

 

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Monthly key reversal levels January 2014

Posted by Danny on January 1, 2014

Here are the monthly key reversal levels going into January 2014:

Monthly Current Mode Key (M) MoM (M) Months % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,176.58 3,307.92 8.99 49 93.16
S&P 500 1,848.36 1,531.01 8.45 23 40.83
Nikkei 16,291.30 12,309.63 8.45 12 53.63
FTSE 100 6,749.10 6,150.57 4.43 13 15.04
DAX 9,552.16 7,703.62 7.89 22 39.82
Bonds (TLT) 101.86 113.53 -4.25 6 -6.20
Gold (spot) 1,205.25 1,484.69 -5.41 8 -18.36
$EURUSD 1.3777 1.3010 2.54 3 1.86
Oil (CL) 98.42 101.63 1.51 1 6.16

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Months: months since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Observations:

* World stock markets remain long term bullish with upward momentum. But for most markets we see MoM at very optimistic +8 levels, which means there is elevated potential for a significant correction to start.

* Bonds, gold and oil remain bearish, so for long term investors it is better to wait until MoM turns up for them.

And here are the monthly key reversal levels for other world markets:

Monthly Current Mode Key (M) MoM (M) Months % Ch
Australia (AORD) 5,353.10 4,764.84 6.08 14 18.03
Brazil (BOVESPA) 51,507.00 56,578.37 -2.56 19 -5.47
Canada (TSX) 13,621.60 12,398.22 3.53 11 6.91
China (SSEC) 2,115.98 2,311.32 -1.10 43 -17.91
Dow Jones Industrials 16,576.66 14,087.45 7.28 26 38.70
France (CAC40) 4,295.95 3,720.05 6.52 12 16.02
Gold stocks (XAU) 84.15 145.65 -6.13 24 -53.51
Hong Kong (HSI) 23,306.39 21,335.82 2.15 14 8.03
India (SENSEX) 21,170.68 18,308.18 3.48 15 12.70
Indonesia (JCI) 4,274.18 4,083.14 -0.30 54 110.87
Italy (MIB) 18,967.70 16,207.22 3.98 3 8.50
Malaysia (KLCI) 1,866.96 1,635.37 6.05 53 58.90
Mexico (IPC) 42,727.09 39,337.24 -0.38 53 57.82
Russell 2000 1,163.64 939.44 8.46 23 46.00
Singapore (STI) 3,167.43 3,036.31 0.51 17 4.32
South Africa (JOHA) 46,256.23 37,951.35 8.26 50 75.48
South Korea (KOSPI) 2,011.34 1,890.61 0.93 3 0.69
Spain (IBEX35) 9,916.70 8,185.04 4.73 3 8.05
Switzerland (SMI) 8,203.00 7,177.06 7.72 17 28.19

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Months: months since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Comments:

* Most world markets remain bullish with upward momentum (MoM).

* For gold stocks (XAU index) we see MoM turn up after a 24 month bear market. That means gold stocks are a speculative long term buy at this point.

Good luck and a happy 2014,

Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of December 30, 2013

Posted by Danny on December 30, 2013

Key reversal levels for this week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,156.58 3,797.02 8.11 51 34.55
S&P 500 1,841.40 1,734.06 7.21 56 30.01
Nikkei 16,178.94 14,360.49 6.90 57 70.92
FTSE 100 6,750.89 6,499.67 0.42 0 0.00
DAX 9,589.38 8,853.05 6.89 24 16.41
Bonds (TLT) 101.81 107.04 -2.65 32 -12.13
Gold (spot) 1,212.09 1,335.73 -4.62 53 -26.84
$EURUSD 1.3744 1.3422 3.06 22 3.48
Oil (CL) 100.32 101.19 -2.62 9 2.49

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* FTSE 100 has broken back above its weekly key reversal level. MoM remains down however.

* Nasdaq and DAX have upward MoM again, so we are almost back to a fully bullish picture for the covered stock indexes.

* Oil is coming very close to its weekly key reversal level, so could go in bullish mode soon.

Daily key reversal levels as of today:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,156.58 4,033.78 8.79 53 10.33
S&P 500 1,841.40 1,792.62 8.28 6 1.79
Nikkei 16,178.94 15,406.55 8.05 7 2.34
FTSE 100 6,750.89 6,562.77 5.22 3 2.18
DAX 9,589.38 9,144.65 6.92 6 4.89
Bonds (TLT) 101.81 103.52 -1.92 2 -0.53
Gold (spot) 1,212.09 1,244.92 -4.09 38 -7.59
$EURUSD 1.3744 1.3627 0.45 24 1.45
Oil (CL) 100.32 96.94 5.15 16 3.07

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* On the daily level we remain with a fully bullish picture for the stock indexes.

* Bonds (TLT) have broken back below their daily key reversal level, so the rally was very short-lived.

* Gold is improving again with MoM back to the upside. Now needs a close above 1244.90 to go into rally mode.

* $EURUSD seem to have survived the test of its daily key reversal level and is looking up again.

* Oil continues to rally.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1820 1870 1755 1576
Nikkei 15850 17220 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 6110
DAX 9480 9800 8715 7870
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1153 1075
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 105 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* Stock indexes are breaking above their Top1 targets. This means we can start watching for the Top2 targets.

* Bonds (TLT) have fallen back to their Bottom1 target at 102. I would start watching for the next target at 96.25

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of December 16, 2013

Posted by Danny on December 16, 2013

Key reversal levels for this week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,000.98 3,758.37 8.29 49 29.52
S&P 500 1,775.31 1,718.10 7.75 54 25.35
Nikkei 15,403.11 14,070.27 5.58 55 62.72
FTSE 100 6,440.00 6,629.66 1.38 0 0.00
DAX 9,006.46 8,774.91 7.47 22 9.33
Bonds (TLT) 103.21 107.46 -2.09 30 -10.92
Gold (spot) 1,236.34 1,356.16 -4.09 51 -25.38
$EURUSD 1.3741 1.3372 2.74 20 3.46
Oil (CL) 96.60 101.33 -4.66 7 -1.31

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* The picture continues to weaken for stocks. The FTSE 100 has fallen below its weekly key reversal level and for the Nasdaq we see weekly MoM turn down.

* No significant changes for bonds, gold, oil and EURUSD.

Daily key reversal levels as of today:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,000.98 3,981.06 2.17 44 6.20
S&P 500 1,775.31 1,790.47 -1.06 1 -0.15
Nikkei 15,403.11 15,171.13 1.02 23 6.02
FTSE 100 6,440.00 6,613.38 -6.77 13 -2.96
DAX 9,006.46 9,159.87 -5.02 2 -0.29
Bonds (TLT) 103.21 104.05 -2.20 27 -1.65
Gold (spot) 1,236.34 1,268.39 -1.15 28 -5.74
$EURUSD 1.3741 1.3581 6.24 15 1.43
Oil (CL) 96.60 95.53 5.05 7 -0.75

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* The S&P 500 and the DAX have joined the FTSE 100 by going into declining mode (red). The Nasdaq and the Nikkei are coming close to doing so as well. It’s too early to buy as daily MoM remains down for all covered stock indexes.

* Bonds (TLT) have seen daily MoM turn back upwards, so have survived another test of the 102 bottom level, at least for now.

* Gold continues to build a base just above 1200. MoM is to the upside, so if gold can close above its daily key reversal at 1268.39 then a further rally becomes likely.

* For oil we see daily MoM turn down, probably just a consolidation after its recent gains.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1820 1870 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 17220 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6205 6110
DAX 9480 9800 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1153
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 105 * 113 * 89.50 86.00

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* A new Top1 target for Crude Oil at 105, with a refined Top2 target at 113.

* Bonds (TLT) continues to sit just above its Bottom1 target at 102. That level may not hold much longer and I would start looking for the Bottom2 target at 96.50

* EURUSD is closing in on its Top1 target

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of December 9, 2013

Posted by Danny on December 9, 2013

Key reversal levels for this week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,062.52 3,738.41 8.41 48 31.51
S&P 500 1,805.09 1,710.97 8.27 53 27.45
Nikkei 15,299.86 13,933.64 4.96 54 61.63
FTSE 100 6,552.00 6,501.83 2.63 21 0.11
DAX 9,172.41 8,749.50 8.12 21 11.34
Bonds (TLT) 102.92 107.70 -1.71 29 -11.17
Gold (spot) 1,228.91 1,364.23 -3.68 50 -25.83
$EURUSD 1.3701 1.3338 2.34 19 3.15
Oil (CL) 97.65 101.49 -5.17 6 -0.23

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* S&P 500 and DAX are seeing their MoM turn down this week, joining the FTSE 100 in the “may have peaked” category. Nasdaq and Nikkei are still fully bullish.

* $EURUSD has upward MoM again, so back to fully bullish.

* Oil may have bottomed for a while.

Daily key reversal levels as of today:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,062.52 3,962.54 6.56 39 7.83
S&P 500 1,805.09 1,774.32 2.14 40 6.74
Nikkei 15,299.86 15,096.78 3.96 18 5.31
FTSE 100 6,552.00 6,652.38 -6.45 8 -1.27
DAX 9,172.41 9,081.75 1.10 41 5.37
Bonds (TLT) 102.92 104.38 -3.32 22 -1.92
Gold (spot) 1,228.91 1,273.81 -4.14 23 -6.31
$EURUSD 1.3701 1.3510 2.89 10 1.14
Oil (CL) 97.65 94.92 3.02 2 0.33

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* All covered stock indexes are displaying downward MoM on the daily level, so we see a weakening bull move in stocks. Some exchanges are only marginally above their daily key reversal level, so we could soon see other markets follow the FTSE 100 into declining mode.

* Bonds (TLT) failed to break above their daily key reversal and MoM has turned down again.

* Oil has broken above its daily key reversal and is now in rally mode.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1820 1870 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 17220 * 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6205 6110
DAX 9480 9800 * 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1153
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 89.50 86.00

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* For Nikkei we have a refined Top2 target at 17220.

* For DAX we have a new Top2 target at 9800.

* Most stock indexes came close to their Top1 target last week, and all turned back down.

* Bonds (TLT) continues to sit just avove its Bottom1 target at 102. That level may not hold much longer and I would start looking for the Bottom2 target at 96.50

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of November 25, 2013

Posted by Danny on November 24, 2013

Here is our key reversal table for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,991.64 3,688.16 8.25 46 29.21
S&P 500 1,804.76 1,688.77 7.60 51 27.42
Nikkei 15,381.71 13,652.26 2.89 52 62.49
FTSE 100 6,674.29 6,488.00 3.53 19 1.98
DAX 9,219.04 8,639.53 8.22 19 11.91
Bonds (TLT) 103.91 108.11 -0.76 27 -10.31
Gold (spot) 1,243.46 1,383.55 -2.43 48 -24.95
$EURUSD 1.3555 1.3303 2.52 17 2.06
Oil (CL) 94.84 102.15 -4.77 4 -3.11

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* Still “all green” as far as the covered stock indexes go. MoM indicator is again going up for all markets. Bull markets have a tendency to continue longer than most people expect.  That’s why buying the dips has been a profitable strategy this year, and trying to forecast the next correction has not.

* Continuing weakness in bonds (TLT) , gold and oil with momentum (MoM) remaining to the downside.

* $EURUSD is holding above its weekly key level. But MoM continues to be weak, so the Euro is not out of the woods yet.

 

And here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,991.64 3,899.06 2.80 30 5.95
S&P 500 1,804.76 1,756.17 6.20 31 6.72
Nikkei 15,381.71 14,671.07 8.64 8 5.88
FTSE 100 6,674.29 6,635.90 -0.74 28 1.91
DAX 9,219.04 8,964.28 6.66 31 5.90
Bonds (TLT) 103.91 105.14 -4.49 13 -0.98
Gold (spot) 1,243.46 1,296.80 -5.85 13 -5.20
$EURUSD 1.3555 1.3452 -0.52 0 0.00
Oil (CL) 94.84 96.97 -2.10 48 -9.48

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* On the daily level the stock markets remain in rally mode, with MoM turning back up for the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

* The European markets look a bit weaker, especially the FTSE 100, which is only barely holding above its daily key reversal level.

* Bonds (TLT) may have bottomed again. MoM is turning up from a -4 bottom and TLT will go into rally mode if it can close above 105.15. The weekly key reversal level at 108.11 would then become the next target.

* Gold is showing a fully bearish (all red) picture again. Is now approaching its first bottom target at $1215.

* The $EURUSD has switched back into rally mode. Can it build on it, or will it fall right back? As long as the Euro stays above 1.3452 (daily closing basis) we assume it is headed for 1.3950, its first top target. On a close below 1.3452 the odds would shift to the downside again. With key reversal levels we just go along with what comes along.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top Top2 Bottom Bottom2
Nasdaq 3975 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1799 1820 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 16580 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6205 6110
DAX 9310 9480 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1078
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 94.30 89.50

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 continue to hover near their first top targets, but no clear breakout. The Nasdaq has been pushing into the 3975 level for over a month , so “Do time” is here.

* The Nikkei is closing in on its top target at 15850, and the DAX is within 1% of its top target at 9310.

* In case you are curious. For the widely watched Dow Jones Industrials, we have top targets at 16450 and 16985.

* When a lot of markets reach long standing top targets simultaneously it becomes interesting.

* Gold seems to be headed for the $1215 bottom target.

 

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of November 18, 2013

Posted by Danny on November 17, 2013

Here is our key reversal table for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,985.97 3,665.43 8.24 45 29.03
S&P 500 1,798.18 1,677.09 7.08 50 26.96
Nikkei 15,165.91 13,504.08 2.06 51 60.21
FTSE 100 6,693.39 6,468.47 3.20 18 2.27
DAX 9,168.69 8,570.97 7.92 18 11.30
Bonds (TLT) 104.73 108.28 -0.36 26 -9.61
Gold (spot) 1,289.66 1,390.89 -1.90 47 -22.16
$EURUSD 1.3494 1.3293 3.16 16 1.60
Oil (CL) 93.84 102.58 -4.35 3 -4.13

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:

* The bull market in stocks continues. But for the Nasdaq we see the weekly MoM turn downwards from a very high level. If MoM falls back below +8 it is usually a sign to get out or at least take partial profits.

* For bonds (TLT) the weekly MoM is turning down again as well. TLT has failed to climb above its weekly key level and the bear market in bonds goes on.

* Gold and oil continue to be bearish, while the $EURUSD has survived its first test of the weekly key level. For all of them the weekly MoM continues to go down, so the long term picture remains weak.

And here are the daily key reversal levels for next Monday:

Daily Current Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,985.97 3,878.88 3.07 25 5.80
S&P 500 1,798.18 1,744.00 5.30 26 6.33
Nikkei 15,165.91 14,357.41 3.76 3 4.39
FTSE 100 6,693.39 6,626.43 -0.60 23 2.20
DAX 9,168.69 8,900.22 5.50 26 5.33
Bonds (TLT) 104.73 105.53 -8.05 8 -0.20
Gold (spot) 1,289.66 1,314.42 -4.56 8 -1.68
$EURUSD 1.3494 1.3551 -4.47 11 -0.65
Oil (CL) 93.84 97.74 -5.00 43 -10.43

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, red = bearish | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )

Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:

* Daily momentum (MoM) has turned up for all stock markets, except the FTSE 100. The rally continues and we start watching their top targets (see below).

* Bonds (TLT) have seen their daily MoM turn up from a very low level. That makes space for another rally if TLT can close above 105.53.

* Gold, $EURUSD and crude oil have now rising MoM as well, which means all are ready for short term rebound rallies after their recent declines. First target is the daily key reversal levels, and if they can close above that then we can start looking for a test of their weekly key reversal levels.

* After a significant move to the downside it is always daily MoM that gives the first positive sign by turning upwards. That’s the earliest point where you can buy if you like to get in near a bottom. I always use a rather tight stop-loss when I take that kind of trade, and I also get out if the MoM turns back down again. I plan to do a special post on strategies for trading the key reversal levels when time permits.

Lastly, our key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top Top2 Bottom Bottom2
Nasdaq 3975 4200 3530 3210
S&P 500 1799 1820 1576 1522
Nikkei 15850 16580 12710 10450
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6205 6110
DAX 9310 9480 7870 7210
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 128.50 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1448 1540 1215 1078
EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.2870 1.2350
Crude Oil(CL) 109.40 121 94.30 89.50

(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Important developments last week:

* No new targets this week.

* The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are testing their first top targets. The Nasdaq has been pushing into the 3975 level for a month now. A continued failure at that level would be a bad omen going forward.

* Bonds (TLT) seem to have survived their retest of the 102 bottom target.

* Oil continues to linger near its $94.30 bottom target.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.

Good luck,

Danny

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