LunaticTrader

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The Feigenbaum cycle

Posted by Danny on September 29, 2021

A key date is coming up in the 666 week cycle, which could also be called “Feigenbaum cycle”, after Mitchel Feigenbaum, who discovered the universal Feigenbaum constants. Those constants appear as fundamental properties of chaotic systems, such as stock markets, weather, fractals or human history. The first Feigenbaum constant is 4.669, and 666 weeks happens to be 4666 days.

A couple of articles I posted 8 years ago focused on the 666 day and 666 week cycles. You can still find them here: here and here.

Today I want to dig deeper in this 4666 day cycle. Can we find indications that such a cycle is at work? Exploring a cycle requires a significant starting point, from where the cycle can be calculated forward and backward. Since stock markets tend to reflect human affairs it gives us useful candidates for such an exploration and I went with the great depression stock market low, which came on 8th July 1932. On that basis we find the following key dates by repeatedly adding 4666 days:

#1: 17 April 1945
#2: 25 January 1958
#3: 4 November 1970
#4: 14 August 1983
#5: 23 May 1996
#6: 2 March 2009
#7: 10 December 2021
#8: 19 September 2034
#9: 29 June 2047

While not all of those dates are equally significant, and of course other starting points could be explored, let’s have a quick look at what we got:
April 1945 was a very pivotal historical month, with the sudden death of US president Roosevelt (Apr 12), the Battle of Berlin (Apr 16) and finally the Death of Hitler (Apr 30).
January 1958 saw the official start of the EEC, the earliest version of what is now the EU.
November 1970: after massive anti-war protests US troops reductions in the Vietnam War started, an important turning point.
August 1983 was not overly remarkable. It was the start of a long economic expansion (Reaganomics). The now famous Soviet nuclear false alarm incident also happened around this time and may have shaped the rest of the decade in important ways.
May 1996: nothing special.
March 2009: Bottom of the Great Recession, the most severe economic meltdown since the Great Depression, which we are using as the anchor point of this cycle. The stock market low came exactly 6 Feigenbaum cycles after the 1932 low if we use 4666.666 days x 6 = 28,000 days. 8 July 1932 + 28,000 days = 6 March 2009. That’s a remarkable hit for such a long term cycle.
And the next key date is: 10 December 2021. Will this be another pivotal historic moment? Considering the ongoing events around SARS-Cov2 it probably wouldn’t surprise anyone if we are headed for some major changes this winter. But how? Maybe we can pick up some themes by calculating this cycle backwards to learn from the past. Here is what I found:
—-
September 29, 1919: Elaine massacre, final months of Spanish flu pandemic, US president Woodrow Wilson suffers stroke.
December 20, 1906
March 11, 1894
June 1, 1881: Assassination of US president James Garfield
August 22, 1868: Fourteenth Amendment to US Constitution
November 13, 1855
February 3, 1843
April 26, 1830: Revolutions of 1830 (France, Belgium, Poland, Switzerland, Italy,..)
July 17, 1817
October 7, 1804: Napoleon becomes Emperor of France
December 28, 1791: French Revolution: Declaration of Rights of the Woman. United States Bill of Rights.
March 20, 1779: Crucial phase in American Revolutionary War
June 10, 1766: Declaratory Act
August 31, 1753
November 10, 1740
February 1, 1728
April 24, 1715
July 15, 1702
October 5, 1689: Bill of Rights 1689 (England)
December 26, 1676
March 18, 1664
June 9, 1651: English Civil War
—-

Important milestones with regards to fight for freedom, revolutionary wars and individual rights seem to cluster around those dates.
With the lockdowns and vaccination programs in the recent year (already leading to introduction of vaccination passports in some countries) and censorship on social media, questions about individual rights, right of movement and freedom of speech have again taken center stage. Will it come to a kind of climax next December? Will something unexpected change the course of events?

Six 666 week cycles after the great depression low in 1932 we had the great recession low in March 2009. Next December we will be six such cycles after the end of WW2, so maybe it will bring liberation and some kind of closure on the covid19 pandemic episode. Whatever happens, chances are we will be looking back at this year as an important pivot point, for better or worse.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , | 5 Comments »

 
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