Posted by Danny on August 3, 2014
Our key tables and comments for this week, now in slideshow format. Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode. Click on “Slideshare” (bottom left) if you want to save and print it.
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then you can also click here.
Good luck, Danny
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: DAX, Euro, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, oil | 2 Comments »
Posted by Danny on July 27, 2014
Our key tables and comments for this week, now in slideshow format (click on “Slideshare” if you want to watch in fullscreen, or save and print it).
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then you can also click here.
Good luck, Danny
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: gold, key levels, stocks | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Danny on July 20, 2014
Our key tables and comments for this week, now in slideshow format (click on expand button to see in fullscreen).
If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then you can also watch it directly on slideshare.
Stay tuned, Danny
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: DAX, Euro, FTSE100, gold, key levels, Nasdaq | 4 Comments »
Posted by Danny on July 13, 2014
Our key tables and comments for this week :
* The FTSE100 index has gone into fully bearish mode, the first major market to do so. The DAX is weak as well, but still holding above its weekly key reversal level. Both are testing their Bottom1 targets already. The US markets have been stronger and remain bullish with upward MoM on the weekly level.
* In the daily key levels all major stock indexes are showing downward MoM, which means a pullback is underway. Is it the start of something bigger? That is always possible. Every bear market starts with one down candle and with one down swing. Right now there is no reason for panic, but if the US and Japanese market also drop below their daily key reversal levels, then the outlook for stocks will darken. So I wait and see.
* For the Nasdaq we have a new Top2 target at 4659.
* In other world markets the French CAC 40 has gone into bearish mode. Several other European markets are coming close to do so as well: Italy and Switzerland. New problems brewing in Europe? Hmmm, just old problems resurfacing… Weekly MoM has also turned down for the MSCI World index, marking a possible long term peak.
* Bonds (TLT) have bounced back, but weekly MoM keeps pointing down for the bond market.
* Gold is back to fully bullish. $1415 is the Top1 target if we get another leg upwards. Now it is becoming DO time for gold.
* The Euro is stuck around 1.36. Key levels are bearish for the Euro at the moment, but that doesn’t mean much in a market that has been going sideways for so long. A big move will come, but which way? Plenty of traders are probably looking to go long Euro on a breakout above 1.40, or to go short on drop below 1.34…, and that may or may not work, as fake out moves have become common. In a coiled market like this one I like to take a look at the monthly key levels for direction. Monthly MoM for $EURUSD is going down since May (it had been going up since August 2012) and a monthly close below 1.3264 would confirm the next major move is indeed down.
* Oil has dropped below its weekly key level and is now fully bearish. The Bottom1 target for oil is 94.60
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 28 stocks are bullish this week, up from 27 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
* A reader wrote me to tell how boring it is, e.g. my posts keep repeating “healthy bull market” for the Dow Jones week after week.
What to do? It is not as if shorting the Dow Industrials has been profitable in recent months. I can only repeat George Soros on that point: “If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.”
If the key reversal levels are boring it is actually a good sign, it means they are not pointing in a different direction every other week. And that can only mean we are getting good trending moves. E.g. the Nasdaq has been in weekly bullish mode for 79 weeks and counting. It doesn’t get any more boring than that. When we started posting them the weekly key reversal level for the Nasdaq was at 3221, now it stands at 4109, so that is 900 points of Nasdaq profit quietly locked in by our key levels. Meanwhile plenty of other analysts/bloggers have been trying to nail the top since the beginning of last year (if not before). I am sure they have not been bored. But how much have they lost by now (provided they trade their own calls)? 20%, 30%, more? By the time we actually do get a correction it will perhaps give them back half of the money they lost, or back to breakeven if they are lucky (provided they have not given up trading their own calls by then). That’s a big price to pay for being able to say “told you so”.
Some day our key levels will stop saying “healthy bull market”. Maybe next week, next month, next year… It will come.
***
Here are the updated tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,415.49 | 4,109.03 | 6.88 | 79 | 42.93 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,967.57 | 1,861.01 | 7.57 | 84 | 38.92 | |
| Nikkei | 15,164.04 | 14,607.06 | 3.08 | 5 | -0.26 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,690.20 | 6,834.48 | 1.32 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| DAX | 9,666.34 | 9,409.44 | 4.08 | 15 | 0.46 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 113.58 | 109.23 | 2.31 | 24 | 6.46 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,338.12 | 1,279.81 | 0.47 | 3 | 1.76 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3607 | 1.3729 | -2.19 | 8 | -0.60 | |
| Oil (CL) | 100.83 | 104.15 | 2.36 | 0 | 0.00 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 7/11/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,415.49 | 4,342.43 | 3.49 | 35 | 6.76 | 2 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,967.57 | 1,948.25 | 3.24 | 35 | 4.20 | 2 | ||
| Nikkei | 15,164.04 | 15,128.86 | 1.04 | 36 | 5.22 | 2 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,690.20 | 6,797.17 | -2.79 | 3 | -0.72 | 11 | ||
| DAX | 9,666.34 | 9,908.46 | -3.60 | 3 | -1.25 | 7 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 113.58 | 111.94 | 0.90 | 3 | 0.82 | 5 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,338.12 | 1,299.15 | 3.36 | 21 | 5.12 | 17 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3607 | 1.3643 | -0.33 | 5 | 0.10 | 15 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 100.83 | 104.71 | -5.52 | 5 | -2.81 | 11 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4531 | 4659 * | 3975 | 3742 |
| S&P 500 | 2001 | 2031 | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15976 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7110 | 6642 | 6230 |
| DAX | 10240 | 10450 | 9682 | 8715 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.60 | 115.70 | 108.25 | 102 |
| Gold (spot) | 1415 | 1541 | 1160 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3403 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.24 | 112.47 | 94.60 | 91.85 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Good luck, Danny
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: DAX, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Euro, FTSE 100 Index, George Soros, gold, key levels, MSCI World, Nasdaq | 4 Comments »
Posted by Danny on July 6, 2014
Comments for this week :
* US markets have continued to push higher, while the UK and Germany are more cautious and continue to sit near major resistance levels. Weekly key levels remain bullish for stocks.
* In the daily key levels all major stock indexes have followed the lead of the Nasdaq and are back in rally mode with upward MoM. People who are looking for a chance to go short would do well to wait at least until daily MoM turns down again, which is the earliest sign of a possible top. But remember, going short in a strong bull market usually means you end up paying for somebody else’s Ferrari. It is much easier to make money with the trend. Price is the only indicator that WILL tell us when the market has turned down, by first falling below the daily key level and then falling below the weekly key level. Once that has happened, then we can start looking to go short. No major bear market can start without the S&P 500 going below 1852.69, which is our current weekly key reversal level. Trading is waiting: first let the market prove to you that it has turned direction, and then act… and then wait again for the market to prove to you that the move has run its course. This is: don’t shoot before you actually see duck. It sounds easy but it is hard to do. Many traders just can’t wait until the fish bites. And it also took me 20+ years to really learn that lesson. If women are better traders it is because they are generally better when it comes to waiting. Men have to learn waiting, so they tend to become better traders with age.
* We have several new and updated key target zones this week. The old Top1 targets for Nasdaq and S&P 500 are now out of the way. The new Top1 targets are 2001 for the S&P 500 and 4531 for the Nasdaq (see table below).
* In other world markets we are still waiting for China, the only market that remains in bearish mode, to break above its weekly key level. A weekly close above 2073.86 would turn the Shanghai Composite bullish, and then all the stock markets in our list would be in bullish mode. That hasn’t happened since we share these tables here on the blog.
* Bonds (TLT) have gone into declining mode. A weekly close below 109.13 would turn bonds fully bearish. Some of the money that comes out of bonds is likely to move into stocks. When that happens we will enter the bullish final stage of the 1920s scenario.
* Gold is digesting recent gains. Still bullish.
* The Euro refuses to show its hand. Now turning daily bearish again. But MoM is turning up on the weekly level. Mixed signals = wait.
* Oil has not shown follow through to the upside and now we get the logical downturn. Needs a close above 105.55 to get back into rally mode.
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 27 stocks are bullish this week, up from 25 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
***
Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,485.93 | 4,089.30 | 6.17 | 78 | 45.21 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,985.44 | 1,852.69 | 7.39 | 83 | 40.18 | |
| Nikkei | 15,437.13 | 14,551.48 | 2.67 | 4 | 1.53 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,866.10 | 6,711.45 | 1.87 | 9 | 0.64 | |
| DAX | 10,009.08 | 9,394.49 | 4.74 | 14 | 4.02 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 110.68 | 109.13 | 2.70 | 23 | 3.74 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,320.42 | 1,276.50 | -0.37 | 2 | 0.42 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3593 | 1.3738 | -2.26 | 7 | -0.70 | |
| Oil (CL) | 104.06 | 101.05 | 2.97 | 20 | 3.94 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 7/3/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,485.93 | 4,320.88 | 7.78 | 30 | 8.46 | 1 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,985.44 | 1,941.56 | 5.47 | 30 | 5.15 | 1 | ||
| Nikkei | 15,437.13 | 15,070.94 | 3.30 | 31 | 7.12 | 1 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,866.10 | 6,778.87 | 1.11 | 2 | 0.73 | 5 | ||
| DAX | 10,009.08 | 9,872.29 | 0.21 | 1 | -0.20 | 5 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 110.68 | 112.73 | 0.41 | 1 | 0.27 | 7 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,320.42 | 1,290.50 | 5.15 | 16 | 3.73 | 2 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3593 | 1.3652 | 1.95 | 0 | 0.00 | 39 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 104.06 | 105.55 | -0.87 | 0 | 0.00 | 35 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4531 | 4588 * | 3975 | 3742 |
| S&P 500 | 2001 | 2031 * | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15976 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7110 | 6642 * | 6230 |
| DAX | 10240 | 10450 | 9682 * | 8715 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.60 | 115.70 | 108.25 | 102 |
| Gold (spot) | 1415 * | 1541 | 1160 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3403 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.24 | 112.47 | 94.60 | 91.85 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Stay tuned, Danny
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: FTSE 100 Index, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, S&P 500 | 3 Comments »
Posted by Danny on June 29, 2014
Comments for this week :
* We have updated our page explaining the key reversal levels with a lot of new info and details for the different strategy numbers as found in the last column of the daily key tables. This should make it easier to understand and follow this approach. I hope to add more detail in the future, the page remains a work in progress.
* For those who wonder what’s the point of these tables. Well, among other things it offers an objective take on the market. And that can be very useful, for example when market sentiment differs noticeably from what the key reversal levels tell us. For example, in an early February blog post I observed how the media had become very negative about emerging markets, yet my weekly key reversal levels were starting to give buy signals for countries like Indonesia. A few weeks later there was a buy signal for India. If you bought on the next Monday you now sit on profits of 8 and 19% respectively. The system doesn’t always win, but the losses are usually small versus the profits. That’s always the main feature of a good trend following system. The small losses you take are the entrance fee you pay to get in on the big trending moves.
* Back to the key tables for this week. Weekly MoM is turning down for the DAX, so we have more markets that go into hesitating mode. Daily MoM has turned down for most stock indexes, but it is now turning back up for the Nasdaq. On outlier? Or will the other indexes follow the Nasdaq to the upside? We will find out soon.
* In other world markets weekly MoM is turning down for Brazil, France, India and Italy. That’s a warning sign, especially for India where MoM has reached a very high +9 reading.
* Bonds (TLT) are still looking for direction.
* Gold is taking a pause after its recent jump. It is holding up well so far, but will need another push higher to confirm that a new up trend is in place. Daily MoM has turned down for gold, so it could see a retest of the $1290 breakout level before possibly heading higher.
* The Euro is going into daily bullish mode. I have been warning that Euro could surprise to the upside. If it gets back above 1.38 then a short covering rally could quickly take it higher and turn the Euro fully bullish. It is that scenario that is probably pressuring European stocks for the moment.
* Oil is also pausing, but still bullish according to the key levels.
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 25 stocks are bullish this week, down from 26 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
***
Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,397.93 | 4,065.66 | 4.83 | 77 | 42.37 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,960.96 | 1,843.56 | 6.79 | 82 | 38.45 | |
| Nikkei | 15,095.00 | 14,494.82 | 1.94 | 3 | -0.72 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,757.80 | 6,707.99 | 2.16 | 8 | -0.95 | |
| DAX | 9,815.17 | 9,366.08 | 4.81 | 13 | 2.01 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 113.24 | 109.05 | 3.41 | 22 | 6.14 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,316.02 | 1,273.23 | -1.08 | 1 | 0.08 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3647 | 1.3743 | -2.27 | 6 | -0.31 | |
| Oil (CL) | 105.74 | 100.76 | 2.91 | 19 | 5.61 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 6/27/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,397.93 | 4,282.82 | 4.81 | 26 | 6.33 | 17 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,960.96 | 1,933.31 | 4.18 | 26 | 3.85 | 2 | ||
| Nikkei | 15,095.00 | 14,959.50 | 5.06 | 26 | 4.75 | 2 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,757.80 | 6,813.64 | -2.98 | 10 | -0.30 | 7 | ||
| DAX | 9,815.17 | 9,943.03 | -1.75 | 2 | -0.80 | 7 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 113.24 | 111.89 | 2.23 | 3 | 0.12 | 5 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,316.02 | 1,279.74 | 7.44 | 11 | 3.39 | 2 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3647 | 1.3586 | 1.13 | 0 | 0.00 | 37 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 105.74 | 104.31 | 2.72 | 32 | 3.76 | 2 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4531 | 3975 | 3742 |
| S&P 500 | 1950 | 2001 * | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15976 * | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7110 | 6677 | 6230 |
| DAX | 10240 | 10450 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.60 | 115.70 | 108.25 | 102 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 | 1160 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3403 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.24 | 112.47 * | 94.60 | 91.85 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Stay tuned, Danny
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: Brazil, France, FTSE 100 Index, gold, India, key levels, Nasdaq, TLT | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Danny on June 22, 2014
Comments for this week :
* Continuing bull markets in all major indexes. If the FTSE100 rises a little bit next week we will have a fully bullish picture for stocks again. When and where will it end? Nobody knows. Keeping an eye on the key reversal levels and MoM indicators will tell us when it is time to get out.
* In other world markets we have China as the only remaining bearish market. Gold stocks have also turned the corner and joined the bullish camp this week.
* Bonds (TLT) are stagnating. Can go either way at this point.
* Gold has turned fully bullish, and we can start looking for a possible move towards its Top1 target at $1424.
* The Euro is holding on to the 1.35 level and gave a speculative buy signal last Tuesday when daily MoM turned up. Euro may surprise to the upside and would probably pull gold up with it.
* Oil is digesting recent gains. A further climb towards 109-110 is in the cards as long as oil holds above its daily key reversal level.
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 26 stocks are bullish this week, unchanged from 26 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
***
Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,368.04 | 4,045.86 | 3.61 | 76 | 41.40 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,962.87 | 1,835.21 | 6.26 | 81 | 38.59 | |
| Nikkei | 15,349.42 | 14,434.68 | 1.10 | 2 | 0.95 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,825.20 | 6,709.16 | 2.59 | 7 | 0.04 | |
| DAX | 9,987.24 | 9,339.75 | 4.83 | 12 | 3.80 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 108.87 | 3.82 | 21 | 4.79 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,314.27 | 1,269.95 | -1.72 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3596 | 1.3756 | -2.13 | 5 | -0.68 | |
| Oil (CL) | 106.83 | 100.29 | 2.41 | 18 | 6.70 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 6/20/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,368.04 | 4,256.75 | 5.18 | 21 | 5.61 | 17 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,962.87 | 1,927.11 | 4.55 | 21 | 3.96 | 1 | ||
| Nikkei | 15,349.42 | 14,844.17 | 4.60 | 21 | 6.51 | 1 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,825.20 | 6,830.73 | -2.57 | 5 | 0.70 | 24 | ||
| DAX | 9,987.24 | 9,880.09 | 0.83 | 42 | 4.01 | 1 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 112.48 | -1.07 | 13 | 0.04 | 8 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,314.27 | 1,264.53 | 4.65 | 6 | 3.25 | 1 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3596 | 1.3646 | -1.52 | 30 | -1.10 | 12 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 106.83 | 103.59 | 6.25 | 27 | 4.83 | 2 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4531 | 3975 | 3742 |
| S&P 500 | 1950 | 2031 | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15650 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7110 | 6677 * | 6230 |
| DAX | 10240 | 10450 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.60 | 115.70 | 108.25 | 102 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 | 1160 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3403 * | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.24 | 109.97 | 94.60 | 91.85 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Stay tuned, Danny
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: China, Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 Index, gold, key levels, Nasdaq | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Danny on June 15, 2014
Comments for this week :
* Stock markets are hesitating after the recent series of new highs. On the weekly level the bull markets are intact, but in the daily key reversal levels we now see all major indexes with downward MoM, and the FTSE100 has fallen into bearish mode. This can be considered a first warning sign.
* The S&P 500 reached our Top1 target at 1950, as we tweeted live, and failed to break above it. It’s hard to tell whether this will be just a short term peak, or a level that we won’t see back for while. Either way, we now have an interesting new Top2 target for the S&P 500 at 2031
* In other world markets the Chinese markets is grabbing upward MoM and coming very close to going into bullish mode. Most markets remain well above their weekly key reversal level.
* Bonds (TLT) are trying to get into rally mode again. TLT needs a daily close above 112.54 to do so.
* Gold has strengthened further. A weekly close above $1311.12 would turn gold fully bullish, and would probably give us a good trending move. Keeping an eye on it.
* The Euro is still weak, but is not giving up too much territory. MoM is to the downside, but as long as the Euro hovers near 1.35 it wouldn’t take much to turn things around.
* Oil has finally cracked above its Top1 target at $104, so now the path is open for a climb towards 109-110, where our next price targets are.
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 26 stocks are bullish this week, down from 28 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.
***
Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,310.65 | 4,028.87 | 2.28 | 75 | 39.54 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,936.16 | 1,827.71 | 5.53 | 80 | 36.70 | |
| Nikkei | 15,097.84 | 14,386.16 | 0.04 | 1 | -0.70 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,777.90 | 6,704.26 | 2.85 | 6 | -0.65 | |
| DAX | 9,912.87 | 9,305.46 | 4.33 | 11 | 3.02 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 112.15 | 108.72 | 4.46 | 20 | 5.12 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,276.85 | 1,311.12 | -1.96 | 2 | 2.21 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3540 | 1.3773 | -1.69 | 4 | -1.09 | |
| Oil (CL) | 106.91 | 99.76 | 1.79 | 17 | 6.78 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 6/13/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,310.65 | 4,227.45 | 6.28 | 16 | 4.22 | 2 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,936.16 | 1,918.69 | 5.63 | 16 | 2.54 | 2 | ||
| Nikkei | 15,097.84 | 14,747.45 | 6.30 | 16 | 4.77 | 2 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,777.90 | 6,843.54 | 0.28 | 0 | 0.00 | 35 | ||
| DAX | 9,912.87 | 9,852.69 | 2.63 | 37 | 3.24 | 2 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 112.15 | 112.54 | -3.35 | 8 | 0.35 | 8 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,276.85 | 1,257.63 | -0.48 | 1 | 0.31 | 9 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3540 | 1.3662 | -3.63 | 25 | -1.51 | 11 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 106.91 | 102.50 | 5.00 | 22 | 4.91 | 1 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4531 | 3975 | 3742 |
| S&P 500 | 1950 | 2031 * | 1755 | 1641 |
| Nikkei | 15650 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7110 | 6230 | 5980 |
| DAX | 10240 | 10450 | 8715 | 8510 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.60 | 115.70 | 108.25 * | 102 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 | 1160 * | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3366 | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 109.24 | 109.97 * | 94.60 | 91.85 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Stay tuned, Danny
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: Euro, FTSE 100 Index, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, oil, TLT | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Danny on June 1, 2014
Comments for this week :
* After a strong week in the stock markets we remain with a fully bullish picture and upward weekly MoM for most major indexes. A pullback will start eventually, and stagnating MoM in the daily keys will normally offer us the first clues when the current rally is nearing an end. Right now it says: all clear.
* Just repeating what I said last week: it is always hard to tell how far a move will carry… best is to go with the flow and respond when the situation changes again. Today’s daily key reversal table shows what happens when we go with the flow: all signals profitable (blue), 1-4% profits within days or weeks. There is no need to predict the top, the system will automatically tell us that some kind of top is in when a given market closes below its key reversal level. Why is following trends so hard to do when it appears so simple? A: Our ego wants to forecast, not follow. Ego wants to buck the trend.
* In other world markets there are no major changes this week. I notice that MoM is turning up for the Russell 2000 index. That doesn’t mean the pain is over for the small caps, but it increases the odds that we will get a rebound rally or a sideways period. A weekly close above 1147.64 would put Russell 2000 in the bullish camp again..
* Bonds (TLT) continue to hesitate near their Top1 target at 114.60.
* Gold tried hard, but has finally succumbed and closed below its weekly key level after 14 weeks of trying the upside. We have been telling for months that gold would go the way of the Euro. Both are in weekly bearish mode now. Will it be a short venture, or the start of a lengthy bear move? I don’t know.
* The Euro appears to be fighting back at the 1.36 level and has its daily MoM turn up from rather low -5 level. That offers some short term hope for both the Euro and for gold. But we have to see if they can claw their ways back above their respective daily key levels.
* Oil price is sputtering as well. It was once again rejected at its long standing Top1 target at 104.
* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 26 stocks are bullish this week, up from 25 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks. Note: this most simple indicator has been saying “healthy bull market” since the middle of April, when the number of bullish stocks climbed above 20 again. Goes to show that investing doesn’t have to complicated.
***
Here are the tables.
Key reversal levels for next week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,242.62 | 4,000.92 | -0.33 | 73 | 37.34 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,923.57 | 1,813.69 | 3.84 | 78 | 35.81 | |
| Nikkei | 14,632.38 | 14,841.67 | -1.72 | 11 | 2.65 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,844.50 | 6,677.06 | 2.58 | 4 | 0.32 | |
| DAX | 9,943.27 | 9,237.00 | 2.67 | 9 | 3.34 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.10 | 108.30 | 5.42 | 18 | 6.95 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,249.42 | 1,319.66 | -1.09 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3630 | 1.3807 | -0.43 | 2 | -0.43 | |
| Oil (CL) | 102.71 | 99.21 | 1.15 | 15 | 2.59 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Latest daily key reversal levels:
| 5/30/2014 | Current | W | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. | Str. # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,242.62 | 4,138.35 | 5.31 | 6 | 2.58 | 1 | ||
| S&P 500 | 1,923.57 | 1,886.58 | 4.66 | 6 | 1.87 | 1 | ||
| Nikkei | 14,632.38 | 14,342.57 | 5.37 | 6 | 1.54 | 13 | ||
| FTSE 100 | 6,844.50 | 6,781.74 | 1.42 | 26 | 2.43 | 1 | ||
| DAX | 9,943.27 | 9,705.24 | 6.17 | 27 | 3.55 | 1 | ||
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.10 | 112.11 | 4.37 | 37 | 4.90 | 1 | ||
| Gold (spot) | 1,249.42 | 1,289.47 | -3.93 | 3 | -1.20 | 11 | ||
| $EURUSD | 1.3630 | 1.3717 | -5.25 | 15 | -0.85 | 28 | ||
| Oil (CL) | 102.71 | 101.63 | 4.23 | 12 | 0.79 | 2 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4390 | 4531 | 3975 | 3742 |
| S&P 500 | 1950 | 1755 | 1641 | |
| Nikkei | 15650 | 17220 | 13860 | 12940 |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7110 | 6230 | 5980 |
| DAX | 10240 | 8715 | 8510 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 114.60 | 115.70 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1424 | 1541 | 1185 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3366 * | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 104 | 109.24 * | 94.60 | 91.85 |
(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Good luck, Danny
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: Dow Jones Industrial Average, gold, key levels, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, TLT | Leave a Comment »
Iceberg chart for gold
Posted by Danny on September 8, 2015
Stock markets had another rough week. We got the serious down days and the nervousness I warned for in last week’s post. Now the question becomes whether the August lows will be revisited or not. Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart (click image to enlarge it):
We are in a new lunar green period, but that has not resulted in a sustained upward move so far. Meanwhile the Earl and MoM indicators keep going up, while the slower Earl2 (orange line) is about to bottom out at a deep low, on a par with the major lows it reached in April and October 2014. Three weeks ago I recommended to stay very cautious until we see a clear bottom in the Earl2 indicator. The Earl2 is now flattening out and will probably turn up in the next few days, so now is the time to start looking for some bargains.
Major upward resistance is near 4800, the late 2014 highs. And support is probably just below 4600, the January lows.
I would also like to point out that the Skew index hit a very high 142 last Friday. This means that a lot of crash insurance was being bought and unusually high premiums were being paid. Fear is very high in the market. From March until a few weeks ago the Skew rarely went above 130 and mostly traded near 120. This means investors weren’t all that worried and didn’t buy much crash insurance (if any). But now that we have seen a market drop the Skew is suddenly jumping to its highest level in almost a year. This is an example of buying boots after the flood. See the article on Skew index that I posted earlier this year: Forget the VIX, watch the SKEW. This suggests we are in a short term correction, not at the start of a long bear market. Throughout the bear markets of 2000-2003 and 2007-2009 the Skew consistently stayed low and didn’t even get above 130, much less 140. A low Skew means complacency, a high skew means fear. So, right now we have fear. And as the saying goes, it is time to buy when others are fearful.
Some people have been asking for more Iceberg charts. I will try to do one very week. We will start with gold (click image to enlarge it):
Gold had a nice bout of bullish energy (green) in the beginning of 2015. “Lava” marked the peak in January. “Floating ice” appeared at a bottom in March. Some erratic bullishness showed up in May and June, but that hardly managed to keep the market flat. “Floating ice” marked the next bottom in July. And now we have had another rally attempt, but bullish energy is even weaker than on the previous occasion. It has only painted a few “small islands”. In a healthy bullish market the amount of green climbs above 4, and that’s what I would wait for if you are looking to buy gold for long term.
If you missed out on my earlier article introducing the Iceberg charts, you can find it here.
Danny
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Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: gold, iceberg, lunar cycles, Nasdaq | 12 Comments »