LunaticTrader

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Posts Tagged ‘gold’

Key reversal levels for week of May 19, 2014

Posted by Danny on May 18, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* No changes in our weekly key reversal levels for major stock indexes.

* On the daily level we have some flip-flopping going on. Nasdaq and S&P 500 have joined the Nikkei by going into bearish mode with downward momentum (MoM). The DAX and FTSE100 remain in bullish mode, but also with downward MoM.

* In other world markets we have a stronger picture with most emerging markets in ongoing bull market.

* Bonds (TLT) continue to rally and have come within a few nickels of our Top1 target at 114.60. The Top2 target is at 115.70, so I expect some serious resistance just above the current levels. I you bought bonds when they turned bullish 16 weeks ago, I would look to take some profits off the table.

* Gold holds just above its weekly key level and has entered rally mode on the daily level, but without much conviction so far. Its next major move also depends on which way the $EURUSD goes (see below). This chart shows why a big move is in the making for gold.

* The Euro has closed below its weekly key level and is now bearish on the weekly level. This is a major change after 41 weeks of bullish status. If the new trend continues we can start eyeing the Bottom targets at 1.3390 and 1.2870, and it would probably push gold prices down as well. If the Euro recovers swiftly and gets back above 1.3844 (weekly close) then the odds reverse.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 24 stocks are bullish this week, unchanged from last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,090.59 3,985.90 -1.61 71 32.42
S&P 500 1,877.86 1,804.13 2.98 76 32.59
Nikkei 14,096.59 14,887.69 -2.27 9 -1.11
FTSE 100 6,855.80 6,632.81 1.46 2 0.49
DAX 9,629.10 9,186.92 1.23 7 0.07
Bonds (TLT) 113.54 107.48 5.09 16 6.42
Gold (spot) 1,293.25 1,280.14 -0.35 13 -1.89
$EURUSD 1.3693 1.3844 0.98 0 0.00
Oil (CL) 101.58 98.58 0.89 13 1.46

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

5/16/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,090.59 4,129.14 -0.50 1 0.50 7
S&P 500 1,877.86 1,885.74 1.16 1 0.36 3
Nikkei 14,096.59 14,416.26 -1.23 25 -2.35 27
FTSE 100 6,855.80 6,754.43 5.28 17 2.60 2
DAX 9,629.10 9,522.46 3.62 17 0.28 18
Bonds (TLT) 113.54 111.20 3.98 28 4.38 1
Gold (spot) 1,293.25 1,287.30 -0.09 2 -0.95 5
$EURUSD 1.3693 1.3821 -4.70 5 -0.39 11
Oil (CL) 101.58 100.39 1.45 3 -0.32 5

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3742
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 114.60 115.70* 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 109.80 94.60 91.85

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of May 12, 2014

Posted by Danny on May 11, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* Little change in our weekly key levels for major stock indexes. For Nikkei we have MoM turning down, which indicates a continuation of bearish mode, now in its 8th week.

* On the daily level the Nasdaq and Nikkei remain in bearish mode, while the DAX is back to fully bullish. The FTSE100 is once again stagnating near its Top1 target at 6800.

* In other world markets Hong Kong is turning bearish on the weekly level.

* Gold tried to go into rally mode, but quickly dropped back and ended the week barely above its weekly key reversal level. A weekly close below $1280.53 would turn this market fully bearish again.

* The Euro also tried to break out to the upside and was pushed back immediately, ending the week just above its key reversal level. As we have been telling for weeks, the next major move of the Euro will also decide the next move in several other markets like gold. So, we keep watching.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 24 stocks are bullish this week, up from 23 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,071.87 3,983.33 -1.48 70 31.81
S&P 500 1,878.48 1,800.68 2.82 75 32.63
Nikkei 14,199.59 14,933.43 -2.21 8 -0.38
FTSE 100 6,814.60 6,604.04 0.61 1 -0.11
DAX 9,581.45 9,163.70 0.79 6 -0.42
Bonds (TLT) 111.24 107.16 4.73 15 4.27
Gold (spot) 1,288.30 1,280.53 0.01 12 -2.27
$EURUSD 1.3759 1.3693 1.52 41 3.59
Oil (CL) 99.99 98.43 1.20 12 -0.13

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

5/9/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,071.87 4,135.91 -1.29 33 -4.25 7
S&P 500 1,878.48 1,864.56 1.11 16 0.90 2
Nikkei 14,199.59 14,464.57 -1.83 20 -1.64 15
FTSE 100 6,814.60 6,706.09 6.23 12 1.99 18
DAX 9,581.45 9,433.41 1.59 12 -0.22 17
Bonds (TLT) 111.24 110.69 3.91 23 2.27 2
Gold (spot) 1,288.30 1,306.39 -0.25 2 -0.12 7
$EURUSD 1.3759 1.3882 1.59 0 0.00 35
Oil (CL) 99.99 101.45 -2.85 10 -0.50 8

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3742
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.60 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 109.80 94.60 * 91.85

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of May 5, 2014

Posted by Danny on May 4, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* Major stock markets have put in a strong week. The FTSE100 has broken above its weekly key reversal level and is now bullish again. This leaves Nikkei as the only major market that is still bearish on the weekly level. Meanwhile weekly MoM is turning up for S&P 500 and DAX. The overall picture has improved significantly from a few weeks ago. But we need to see follow through in the coming weeks.

* On the daily level momentum (MoM) remains to the upside for all covered indexes, with FTSE100 standing out as the strongest market for the moment. The UK market is once again testing its Top1 target at 6800. Maybe it can break out this time and then we can set sights on the Top2 target at 7250.

* In other world markets we have Mexico turning bullish, while Vietnam is going bearish on the weekly level.

* Bonds(TLT) have found a second breath and are pushing above their Top1 target at 111.80. That means we can start looking for the Top2 target at 114.60. Our system has remained bullish on bonds for 14 weeks and is now proven right again with this push to new highs for the year.

* Gold appeared to breaking down but made a nice comeback on Friday. This has kept it above its weekly key level, and on the daily level MoM is turning up. This is promising, but gold still needs a daily close above $1307.29 to leave the recent correction behind.

* The Euro remains undecided near the 1.38 level. We may not see any significant move until the EU elections by the end of May. I will be suprised if the Euro still trades at 1.38 by the end of June.

* Oil remains weak, but as long as it stays above its weekly key level at $98.38 it is only a pause or correction in an ongoing bull market.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week, ubchanged from 23 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,123.90 3,981.47 -1.07 69 33.50
S&P 500 1,881.14 1,797.36 2.71 74 32.82
Nikkei 14,457.51 14,984.42 -2.18 7 1.43
FTSE 100 6,822.40 6,578.32 -0.15 0 0.00
DAX 9,556.02 9,149.23 0.60 5 -0.68
Bonds (TLT) 112.71 106.82 4.74 14 5.64
Gold (spot) 1,299.24 1,280.82 0.46 11 -1.44
$EURUSD 1.3871 1.3685 1.64 40 4.43
Oil (CL) 99.76 98.38 1.73 11 -0.36

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

2/05/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,123.90 4,158.85 -0.04 28 -3.03 8
S&P 500 1,881.14 1,862.82 2.86 11 1.04 1
Nikkei 14,457.51 14,535.23 -0.05 17 0.15 16
FTSE 100 6,822.40 6,660.31 6.04 8 2.10 1
DAX 9,556.02 9,409.27 2.08 7 -0.48 1
Bonds (TLT) 112.71 110.18 3.57 18 3.38 1
Gold (spot) 1,299.24 1,307.29 -1.29 12 -0.25 24
$EURUSD 1.3871 1.3794 1.50 17 0.12 5
Oil (CL) 99.76 101.89 -3.98 5 -0.73 7

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3742
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.60 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 109.80 91.85 86.00

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of April 28, 2014

Posted by Danny on April 27, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* Major stock markets continue to show a rather mixed picture in the weekly key reversal levels. FTSE100 and Nikkei remains mildly bearish with MoM turning upwards, while the Nasdaq , S&P 500 and DAX are mildly bullish with MoM going down. This picture will eventually resolve one way or the other when we get the next major move in the market. For now the weekly keys do not tell us which way it will go. We are going sideways.

* On the daily level all covered indexes have upwards MoM, but the Nasdaq and Nikkei still fail to get back above their daily key reversal levels. The Bottom2 target for Nasdaq has been adjusted to 3742.

* In other world markets we see China turning bearish this week as it failed to stay above its weekly key reversal level. But MoM remains to the upside so this is a suspect sell signal that may be reversed quickly. Australia, Spain and Switzerland are switching to upside MoM, which suggest a continuation of their bull markets. So, most world markets continue to do fairly well.

* Bonds(TLT) keep trying to break above their Top1 target at 111.80. The next higher target is adjusted to 114.60 based on latest data. MoM is still to the upside for bonds, but will start to go down if TLT keeps getting rejected at that 111 target.

* Gold is showing some strength, but still needs a close above its daily key level at $1311.59 to get into bullish mode again.

* The Euro remains undecided near the 1.38 level.

* Oil has gone into bearish mode and its weekly MoM is turning down as well. A weekly close below $98.35 would turn crude oil fully bearish.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week, ubchanged from 23 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,075.56 3,979.91 -0.41 68 31.93
S&P 500 1,863.40 1,794.51 2.64 73 31.56
Nikkei 14,429.26 15,036.75 -2.27 6 1.23
FTSE 100 6,685.70 6,705.90 -0.73 6 2.42
DAX 9,401.55 9,134.87 0.50 4 -2.29
Bonds (TLT) 111.33 106.46 4.35 13 4.35
Gold (spot) 1,302.94 1,281.65 1.01 10 -1.15
$EURUSD 1.3832 1.3671 1.68 39 4.14
Oil (CL) 100.60 98.35 2.19 10 0.48

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

25/04/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,075.56 4,179.22 -0.50 23 -4.16 8
S&P 500 1,863.40 1,854.27 2.48 6 0.09 5
Nikkei 14,429.26 14,583.54 0.09 13 -0.05 16
FTSE 100 6,685.70 6,605.42 1.79 3 0.06 13
DAX 9,401.55 9,371.96 0.20 3 -2.09 5
Bonds (TLT) 111.33 109.74 4.00 13 2.11 17
Gold (spot) 1,302.94 1,311.59 -2.20 7 0.03 24
$EURUSD 1.3832 1.3783 0.43 12 -0.16 21
Oil (CL) 100.60 102.62 -0.11 0 0.00 35

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3742*
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.60* 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 109.80* 91.85 86.00

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of April 21, 2014

Posted by Danny on April 20, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* The Nasdaq and the Nikkei tested their Bottom1 targets last week and bounced back strongly. For the Nikkei we now see weekly MoM turn up, the first major index to do so. This is a tentative sign that the recent “correction” may be over already. But we have to see if other markets follow. For shallow corrections it is fairly typical to see Mom turn back upwards from near the zero level.

* On the daily level the S&P 500 has switched into rally mode already, with the Nikkei, FTSE100 and DAX coming very close to their daily key reversal levels as well. The Nasdaq is still lagging but has picked up positive MoM. This means we could easily see several more markets going into rally mode next week, and we may see new all time highs fairly soon.

* For other world markets we still have a mostly bullish picture, and the MSCI world index is only a few % below its all time highs. Most markets have not participated in the recent Nasdaq sell-off.

* Bonds(TLT) were rejected at their Top1 target at 111.80. We have a next higher target at 114.20 if the rally continues. MoM is still to the upside for bonds, but will start to go down if TLT keeps getting rejected at that 111 target.

* Gold continues to be in a pullback. It must close the week above $1,282.91 to avoid another bearish episode which would probably push it towards its Bottom1 target at $1185.

* Meanwhile the Euro remains undecided near the 1.38 level versus the US dollar. Once the Euro moves it will probably drag gold and oil with it. Right now my indicators suggest that the next move for the Euro will be down. If so, then look for a strengthening dollar to become a drag on US stock prices as well.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week, up from 20 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,095.52 3,975.87 0.64 67 32.58
S&P 500 1,864.85 1,791.14 2.81 72 31.67
Nikkei 14,516.27 15,077.88 -2.39 5 1.84
FTSE 100 6,625.30 6,702.91 -0.89 5 1.49
DAX 9,409.71 9,122.06 0.56 3 -2.21
Bonds (TLT) 110.05 106.10 4.07 12 3.15
Gold (spot) 1,289.90 1,282.91 1.70 9 -2.14
$EURUSD 1.3805 1.3652 1.80 38 3.94
Oil (CL) 103.37 98.14 2.31 9 3.25

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

17/04/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,095.52 4,192.48 -6.00 18 -3.69 8
S&P 500 1,864.85 1,842.06 -2.49 1 0.17 5
Nikkei 14,516.27 14,588.49 -4.36 8 0.56 12
FTSE 100 6,625.30 6,652.60 -1.65 7 0.52 11
DAX 9,409.71 9,483.73 -3.65 4 1.74 7
Bonds (TLT) 110.05 109.06 5.92 8 0.94 1
Gold (spot) 1,289.90 1,319.16 0.46 2 -0.97 7
$EURUSD 1.3805 1.3775 1.43 7 -0.35 6
Oil (CL) 103.37 101.14 4.99 15 2.00 18

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3797
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 91.85 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

 

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Stocks will crash, buy gold?

Posted by Danny on April 14, 2014

US stock markets have started to slide. It’s not that we have not been warning in recent weeks, as all my indicators have been pointing down. I could actually repost my March 24 outlook and be done for this week. But that would not be interesting and I have some new charts and information, so let’s start by taking our weekly look at the S&P 500 (click for larger image):

S&P 500

Bearish divergences are now even more clearly visible in all my indicators. The 1800 level is very important for the S&P. If that level doesn’t hold then a drop to the 1600-1700 area can come really quick. So we better be careful. Yes, a crash is possible when such a long term trend line gives way. As we have pointed out before, eclipse red periods have a history of producing sharp downturns and this time is no exception. We remain in lunar red period until the end of this week and I expect some bottom to form soon. The ensuing eclipse green period usually brings a strong rebound, so be ready to do some speculative buying on down days. If the S&P holds the 1800 level this week then it can even surge back to 1900 by May. We will study that scenario next week, before the green period gets underway.

I notice on social networks that some investors are thinking that a stock market crash will cause gold and gold stocks to surge higher. So, should you buy gold in anticipation of a possible crash? Well, based on history the answer is: no. Just looking at some of the most famous recent crashes:
* October 1987 crash, gold price: $455 -> 3 months later: $480, 6 months later: $445, 1 year later: $396.
* Mar-May 2000 (Tech crash), gold price: $293 -> 3 months later: $272, 6 months later: $277, 1 year later: $266.
* Aug-Nov 2008 (Nasdaq drops 50%), gold price: $912 -> 3 month later: $730, 6 months later: $918, 1 year later: $960.
Buying gold as protection for a stock market crash doesn’t look like a good idea. The reason is not hard to guess: a stock market crash has deflationary effects and causes some investors to liquidate other assets (like gold) to avoid bankruptcy or margin calls. The better strategy is to buy gold 3 months to 1 year after the start of a stock market crash.

***

As a little extra this week I have a few other charts to share. There is an interesting market fractal appearing in the S&P 500 index. The S&P market action since late 2010 looks exactly like the movements between April 2013-January 2014, as you can see in this comparison chart (click for larger image):

market fractal

I have numbered the major turning points. In both cases we see a rising wedge pattern(1-6) followed by breakout to the upside(7) and a revisit of the resistance line that has turned into support(8). Then a further rise and congestion period(9) leading to a flat topping pattern(10-12). This is as good a market fractal as you will ever see. And we already know how the pattern has continued in the ensuing months. If the fractal continues to hold up then we can look forward to this scenario (click for larger image):

 

market fractal 2

From the topping area(12) we got a quick drop that found initial support on the old trend line and then dipped even lower to bottom out at the level where it broke away from the old rising wedge(13). And then a surge to new all time highs with another broad topping formation (14-16).

Will this pattern repeat? I don’t know. Bear in mind that this kind of market fractals cannot work forever, so it is more a question when and where will the market break away from this pattern and especially: how? But as long as it is in play it is a scenario worth watching. Right now it suggests a summer 2014 low around 1500 and a final market top in 2015 with the S&P 500 climbing above 2000…. and then a real crash. Well, why not?

Good luck,
Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of April 7, 2014

Posted by Danny on April 6, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* It was an interesting first week of April. One reader was puzzled and asking how our system can be bullish for the S&P 500 and bearish for Nasdaq. But here we are a few weeks later and the Nasdaq is already more than 5% below its recent peaks while the S&P 500 was still making new all time highs a few days ago.

* The Nikkei and the DAX are seeing weekly MoM turn upwards, and both the Nikkei and FTSE100 are coming very close to their weekly key reversal levels. So we may get back to all markets bullish if these indexes can climb a bit more next week.

* There is a new Bottom1 target for the Nasdaq at 3975.

* Gold has tested its weekly key level and is now bouncing back a bit. But the next major move for gold largely depends on the next move of the Euro, and the Euro continues to suggest more weakness ahead.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for other world markets can be picked up here.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,127.73 3,976.56 4.45 65 33.62
S&P 500 1,865.09 1,788.65 4.02 70 31.68
Nikkei 15,063.77 15,142.56 -2.30 3 5.68
FTSE 100 6,695.60 6,718.05 -0.50 3 2.57
DAX 9,695.77 9,111.96 0.90 1 0.77
Bonds (TLT) 108.46 105.35 3.67 10 1.66
Gold (spot) 1,302.78 1,281.98 2.91 7 -1.17
$EURUSD 1.3702 1.3620 2.14 36 3.16
Oil (CL) 101.14 97.49 2.02 7 1.02

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

4/04/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,127.73 4,281.18 -2.51 9 -2.94 8
S&P 500 1,865.09 1,855.71 2.84 37 2.47 1
Nikkei 15,063.77 14,662.45 3.38 4 1.30 13
FTSE 100 6,695.60 6,614.39 1.64 0 0.00 37
DAX 9,695.77 9,402.25 6.47 7 2.83 1
Bonds (TLT) 108.46 108.64 0.34 2 0.87 3
Gold (spot) 1,302.78 1,322.14 -5.79 9 -0.44 8
$EURUSD 1.3702 1.3823 -2.64 11 -0.54 7
Oil (CL) 101.14 99.43 1.23 6 -0.20 21

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 * 3797
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 91.85 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

 

 

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Monthly key levels for April 2014

Posted by Danny on April 1, 2014

Here are our monthly key reversal levels going into April 2014. Remember, these monthly key reversal are only for long term market orientation. Try to invest mainly in the stronger markets (dark green) and take (partial) profits in markets that go to light green. Speculative buying can be done in the markets that switch from bearish (red) to mildly bearish (pink). A very patient long term investor can do well based on these monthly keys only, but for more optimal entry and exit points the weekly and daily key reversals can be used.

Monthly Current Mode Key (M) MoM (M) Months % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,198.99 3,461.22 9.21 52 94.20
S&P 500 1,872.34 1,578.04 8.27 26 42.66
Nikkei 14,827.83 12,822.68 7.86 15 39.83
FTSE 100 6,598.40 6,225.36 2.89 16 12.47
DAX 9,555.91 8,010.82 7.79 25 39.87
Bonds (TLT) 109.10 111.70 -2.38 9 1.61
Gold (spot) 1,283.76 1,446.26 -4.12 11 -13.04
$EURUSD 1.3768 1.3150 2.57 6 1.80
Oil (CL) 101.58 93.65 0.78 1 -1.38

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/

Comments:

* Monthly MoM is now turning down for Nasdaq, S&P 500 and DAX. It was down already for Nikkei and FTSE 100. So all major stock markets have now downward momentum. It can be months if not more than a year until monthly MoM turns back upwards. Until that happens we better be very cautious in the stock markets.

* MoM is turning up for Oil, which is bullish, but this market still needs follow through.

 

Monthly key reversal levels for other world markets:

Monthly Current Mode Key (M) MoM (M) Months % Ch
Australia (AORD) 5,403.00 4,860.44 4.54 17 19.13
Brazil (BOVESPA) 50,415.00 54,320.68 -2.26 22 -7.48
Canada (TSX) 14,335.30 12,786.98 4.89 14 12.51
China (SSEC) 2,033.31 2,255.74 -1.23 46 -21.12
Dow Jones Industrials 16,457.66 14,449.99 6.35 29 37.70
France (CAC40) 4,391.50 3,810.07 4.94 15 18.60
Gold stocks (XAU) 91.20 134.73 -4.35 27 -49.61
Hong Kong (HSI) 22,151.06 21,335.72 1.03 17 2.68
India (SENSEX) 22,386.27 18,799.74 3.91 18 19.17
Indonesia (JCI) 4,768.28 4,142.95 -0.23 57 135.25
Italy (MIB) 21,691.92 17,020.56 5.13 6 24.09
Malaysia (KLCI) 1,849.21 1,670.32 5.02 56 57.39
Mexico (IPC) 40,461.60 41,844.06 -0.87 1 4.34
Russell 2000 1,173.04 978.44 8.28 26 47.18
Russia (RSX) 23.99 28.00 -0.58 2 -4.27
Singapore (STI) 3,188.62 3,193.43 -0.63 2 5.88
South Africa (JOHA) 47,770.92 39,126.60 8.35 53 81.22
South Korea (KOSPI) 1,985.61 1,893.70 0.47 6 -0.60
Spain (IBEX35) 10,340.50 8,576.08 5.39 6 12.67
Switzerland (SMI) 8,453.80 7,343.32 6.10 20 32.11
Turkey (TUR) 48.68 57.67 -3.98 7 -1.85
Vietnam (VNM) 21.69 18.09 2.41 2 3.88

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/

Comments:

* Russia, Turkey and Vietnam have been added to the list with their main ETF ticker.

* No big changes except for Russell 2000, which is also seeing MoM turn down, indicating that it may have peaked out.

* A quick note for short sellers. Many people try to bet against a rising market only to be forced to cover their shorts on each subsequent rally. By the time the market actually peaks out they have no money left to bet against it. If you can wait until monthly MoM turns down from a very high level (above 8), as we currently see for the Russell 2000, Nasdaq and S&P 500, the odds for a bet on the downside will be much better. When that basic condition is in place, you just look for a favorable entry based on weekly and daily key reversal levels, for example when weekly MoM turns down as well, or when the market falls below a key reversal level. You want to have at least two different time frames agreeing with the direction of your trade.

 

Good luck,
Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of March 31, 2014

Posted by Danny on March 29, 2014

Comments for this week (the key reversal tables are below) :

* The Nasdaq has continued its recent weakness and went into declining mode when it closed below its daily key reversal level last Monday. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones have been stronger and have not dropped below any key levels yet.

* The German DAX index has climbed back above its weekly key reversal level, so is now bullish again. But the move is suspect as weekly MoM remains to the downside, suggesting a possible false break out. We have to see whether this market shows proper follow through.

* As mentioned last week, the $EURUSD is a market to watch. We now see weekly MoM turn down for the euro, which adds to evidence that the next move for the euro will be down. See also the long term monthly euro chart I posted on twitter yesterday.

* Gold has continued to drop and now the weekly MoM is going down. Is likely to produce some dead cat bounce soon, but medium term it doesn’t look very good for gold right now and if the Euro weakens further it will also weigh on gold prices.

* Bonds continue to show strength and are now fully bullish on weekly and daily level. Probably set to test their long standing Top1 target at 111.80.

* Oil has turned bullish on the daily level,  but its weekly MoM remains to the downside. This makes it questionable whether oil can build on its recent gains. Keep a stop loss near the daily key reversal level if you are long crude oil.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for other world markets can be picked up here.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 22 stocks are bullish this week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,155.76 3,969.98 5.74 64 34.53
S&P 500 1,857.62 1,785.01 3.92 69 31.16
Nikkei 14,696.03 15,140.33 -2.68 2 3.10
FTSE 100 6,615.60 6,719.90 -0.33 2 1.34
DAX 9,587.19 9,088.71 0.56 0 0.00
Bonds (TLT) 109.37 105.13 3.63 9 2.51
Gold (spot) 1,294.90 1,282.81 3.59 6 -1.76
$EURUSD 1.3750 1.3612 2.49 35 3.52
Oil (CL) 101.67 97.37 2.23 6 1.55

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

28/03/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,155.76 4,287.34 -5.01 4 -2.28 7
S&P 500 1,857.62 1,845.24 -0.29 32 2.06 2
Nikkei 14,696.03 14,793.72 -2.77 9 3.10 12
FTSE 100 6,615.60 6,675.16 -2.52 14 -1.10 12
DAX 9,587.19 9,297.12 2.03 2 1.68 5
Bonds (TLT) 109.37 107.64 5.46 12 2.50 1
Gold (spot) 1,294.90 1,334.13 -5.36 4 -1.04 7
$EURUSD 1.3750 1.3841 -2.08 6 -0.20 7
Oil (CL) 101.67 99.31 0.57 1 0.33 5

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 91.85 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of March 24, 2014

Posted by Danny on March 22, 2014

Comments for this week (the key reversal tables are below) :

* Weekly momentum (MoM) is turning down again for the Nasdaq. May have peaked for a while. This is an important signal as the Nasdaq has been one of the strongest markets in the recent months. Wait and see whether MoM can pick up again. If not then look for a test of its weekly key reversal level, currently at 3962.

* Weekly MoM is turning down for bonds (TLT) and oil (CL) as well. These markets are sputtering and need to pick up steam if their recent rallies are to continue.

* On the daily level the Nasdaq is holding only just above its key reversal level, so could go into declining mode any day. Watching this market carefully as it can easily drag other world markets lower.

* I am also watching the $EURUSD very closely. Since it touched its Top1 target at 1.3950 the euro has dropped back into declining mode on Thursday and is not far above its weekly key reversal level anymore. If it closes below 1.3598 next week then the euro will go fully bearish and that would probably have consequences for gold and oil prices.

* Gold has seen a similar drop and is testing its daily key reversal level right now. Likely to decline further if the daily key doesn’t hold. Those declines were nicely indicated by the MoM indicator turning down, as I pointed out in my mid-week comments on Tuesday. When a market has had a sizable rally, it is always a good idea to take (partial) profits as soon as MoM turns down.

* We have new Bottom1 targets for EURUSD at 1.3390 and for Oil at 91.85

* Our weekly key reversal levels for other world markets can be picked up here.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 22 stocks are bullish this week.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,276.79 3,962.35 6.89 63 38.44
S&P 500 1,866.52 1,781.86 3.83 68 31.78
Nikkei 14,224.23 15,183.66 -2.55 1 -0.21
FTSE 100 6,557.20 6,731.84 0.19 1 0.45
DAX 9,342.94 9,368.08 0.86 1 3.27
Bonds (TLT) 108.23 104.81 3.41 8 1.45
Gold (spot) 1,334.06 1,282.55 3.90 5 1.21
$EURUSD 1.3786 1.3598 2.52 34 3.79
Oil (CL) 99.46 97.24 2.39 5 -0.66

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

3/21/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,276.79 4,253.39 -0.06 3 -1.26 5
S&P 500 1,866.52 1,843.16 0.93 27 2.55 1
Nikkei 14,224.23 14,903.19 -4.88 4 -0.21 11
FTSE 100 6,557.20 6,698.38 -6.19 9 -1.98 28
DAX 9,342.94 9,427.12 -3.95 14 -1.17 12
Bonds (TLT) 108.23 106.74 2.01 7 1.43 6
Gold (spot) 1,334.06 1,322.16 0.84 50 6.90 2
$EURUSD 1.3786 1.3856 1.58 1 0.07 3
Oil (CL) 99.46 100.76 -3.96 7 1.39 8

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 * 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 91.85 * 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

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