LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Posts Tagged ‘gold’

Key reversal levels for week of March 24, 2014

Posted by Danny on March 22, 2014

Comments for this week (the key reversal tables are below) :

* Weekly momentum (MoM) is turning down again for the Nasdaq. May have peaked for a while. This is an important signal as the Nasdaq has been one of the strongest markets in the recent months. Wait and see whether MoM can pick up again. If not then look for a test of its weekly key reversal level, currently at 3962.

* Weekly MoM is turning down for bonds (TLT) and oil (CL) as well. These markets are sputtering and need to pick up steam if their recent rallies are to continue.

* On the daily level the Nasdaq is holding only just above its key reversal level, so could go into declining mode any day. Watching this market carefully as it can easily drag other world markets lower.

* I am also watching the $EURUSD very closely. Since it touched its Top1 target at 1.3950 the euro has dropped back into declining mode on Thursday and is not far above its weekly key reversal level anymore. If it closes below 1.3598 next week then the euro will go fully bearish and that would probably have consequences for gold and oil prices.

* Gold has seen a similar drop and is testing its daily key reversal level right now. Likely to decline further if the daily key doesn’t hold. Those declines were nicely indicated by the MoM indicator turning down, as I pointed out in my mid-week comments on Tuesday. When a market has had a sizable rally, it is always a good idea to take (partial) profits as soon as MoM turns down.

* We have new Bottom1 targets for EURUSD at 1.3390 and for Oil at 91.85

* Our weekly key reversal levels for other world markets can be picked up here.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 22 stocks are bullish this week.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,276.79 3,962.35 6.89 63 38.44
S&P 500 1,866.52 1,781.86 3.83 68 31.78
Nikkei 14,224.23 15,183.66 -2.55 1 -0.21
FTSE 100 6,557.20 6,731.84 0.19 1 0.45
DAX 9,342.94 9,368.08 0.86 1 3.27
Bonds (TLT) 108.23 104.81 3.41 8 1.45
Gold (spot) 1,334.06 1,282.55 3.90 5 1.21
$EURUSD 1.3786 1.3598 2.52 34 3.79
Oil (CL) 99.46 97.24 2.39 5 -0.66

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

3/21/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,276.79 4,253.39 -0.06 3 -1.26 5
S&P 500 1,866.52 1,843.16 0.93 27 2.55 1
Nikkei 14,224.23 14,903.19 -4.88 4 -0.21 11
FTSE 100 6,557.20 6,698.38 -6.19 9 -1.98 28
DAX 9,342.94 9,427.12 -3.95 14 -1.17 12
Bonds (TLT) 108.23 106.74 2.01 7 1.43 6
Gold (spot) 1,334.06 1,322.16 0.84 50 6.90 2
$EURUSD 1.3786 1.3856 1.58 1 0.07 3
Oil (CL) 99.46 100.76 -3.96 7 1.39 8

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 * 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 91.85 * 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for March 19

Posted by Danny on March 19, 2014

Latest daily key reversal levels:

key reversals

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W: weekly mode | %Ch.: blue = profit, orange = loss | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments:

* Several changes in our key reversal levels today.

* Nasdaq has jumped back into bullish mode. But the move is suspect as the breakout happens with MoM remaining to the downside. So could turn out to be a fake out move.

* DAX is the first market that sees MoM turn upwards, so may have bottomed for now. Daily key level at 9451 is now the first upside target.

* Gold and $EURUSD have seen nice rallies in recent weeks, but MoM is turning down on them. That means they probably peaked for a while and are setting up for a test of their daily key reversal levels. Staying cautious as long as MoM goes down.

 

PS: to get the key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, follow me on Twitter.

Danny

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of March 17, 2014

Posted by Danny on March 15, 2014

Comments for this week (the key reversal tables are below) :

* DAX, FTSE 100 and Nikkei have closed below their weekly key reversal levels and are now in fully bearish mode. Avoid until we see weekly MoM turning back up for these markets.

* The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are quite a bit stronger and remain well above their weekly key reversal levels, but the Nasdaq has fallen below its daily key level and is now in declining mode. I would not do any buying until we see daily MoM turning up for the US markets.

* Now that markets have reached our Top1 targets and turned back down from them, we can start looking for the Bottom1 targets (see last table)

* Bullish/bearish status for other major world markets is posted on my twitter account every weekend.

* Bonds (TLT) , gold and EURUSD remain fully bullish. Look for Top1 targets to be reached in those markets.

* There are adjusted Top2 targets for Nasdaq and S&P 500 this week.

* Oil has gone into declining mode last week and is coming close to its weekly key reversal level. A weekly close below 97.23 would turn Oil (CL) fully bearish.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,245.40 3,948.74 7.00 62 37.43
S&P 500 1,841.13 1,778.46 3.53 67 29.99
Nikkei 14,327.66 15,236.95 -2.18 0 0.00
FTSE 100 6,527.90 6,747.93 0.81 0 0.00
DAX 9,056.41 9,367.58 1.80 0 0.00
Bonds (TLT) 108.52 105.33 2.52 7 1.21
Gold (spot) 1,382.96 1,278.62 3.44 4 4.92
$EURUSD 1.3905 1.3577 2.20 33 4.69
Oil (CL) 98.89 97.23 2.66 4 -1.23

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

3/14/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,245.40 4,296.21 0.95 0 0.00 35
S&P 500 1,841.13 1,838.23 2.28 22 1.15 2
Nikkei 14,327.66 15,047.78 0.39 0 0.00 39
FTSE 100 6,527.90 6,740.39 -5.43 4 -2.42 11
DAX 9,056.41 9,484.86 -7.77 9 -4.20 11
Bonds (TLT) 108.52 106.57 -0.07 1 -0.41 1
Gold (spot) 1,382.96 1,317.56 4.78 45 10.81 1
$EURUSD 1.3905 1.3757 4.76 25 2.13 1
Oil (CL) 98.89 101.18 -4.04 2 0.81 3

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 * 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1950 * 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter. We also try to tweet the daily key reversal levels every day.

Good luck, Danny

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of March 10, 2014

Posted by Danny on March 8, 2014

Comments for this week (the reversal tables are posted below) :

* The Nikkei has closed above its weekly key reversal level and is now bullish again. But it could be a fake out move as its weekly MoM remains to the downside, which is suspect. If Nikkei moves above 15500 we can become more confident that this rally is for real.

* US and UK markets are once again testing their Top1 targets and seem to be stalling near these levels. Daily MoM remains to the downside for Nasdaq and FTSE 100, while the DAX continues to weaken. It looks like most markets will need another pullback before they can climb higher.

* Bonds (TLT) are weakening as well. Weekly MoM is turning down and on the daily level bonds have fallen below their key reversal level, putting them into declining mode. If TLT closes below 105.03 next week it will enter fully bearish mode.

* We have a new Top2 target for gold at $1541. This targets will come into play if gold can break above its Top1 target.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,336.22 3,934.46 7.00 61 40.37
S&P 500 1,878.04 1,774.88 3.18 66 32.60
Nikkei 15,274.07 14,610.87 -2.05 0 0.00
FTSE 100 6,712.70 6,589.90 1.15 2 -1.83
DAX 9,350.75 9,095.92 3.09 34 13.51
Bonds (TLT) 105.89 105.03 2.72 6 -1.24
Gold (spot) 1,339.64 1,273.44 2.50 3 1.63
$EURUSD 1.3878 1.3540 1.50 32 4.49
Oil (CL) 102.58 97.21 2.62 3 2.46

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

3/7/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,336.22 4,236.65 6.23 19 5.12 2
S&P 500 1,878.04 1,831.29 6.49 17 3.18 1
Nikkei 15,274.07 14,751.60 2.21 1 -0.04 5
FTSE 100 6,712.70 6,704.21 0.91 18 0.60 2
DAX 9,350.75 9,601.36 -1.59 4 -1.09 7
Bonds (TLT) 105.89 107.35 1.55 0 0.00 35
Gold (spot) 1,339.64 1,306.85 3.73 40 7.34 2
$EURUSD 1.3878 1.3700 2.86 20 1.93 1
Oil (CL) 102.58 99.81 2.42 31 6.09 2

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4566 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1934 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 * 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter. We also try to tweet the daily key reversal levels every day.

Good luck, Danny

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of March 3, 2014

Posted by Danny on March 2, 2014

Comments for this week (the tables are posted below) :

* Most stock markets are back to strong bullish status on the weekly level, but remain in weak bullish mode on the daily level. This means that the recent rally may have peaked or is close to a peak. So, keep a stop loss close the market. The S&P 500 came within 2 points of its long standing Top1 target at 1870, with several other markets also hitting their Top1 targets last week. That too suggests that a short term top could be in for stocks.

* The current events in Ukraine may trigger some selling next Monday, but if problems escalate further then it is also possible that money will flee Europe and flow into the USA. That could actually push up bond and stock prices over there. My point is: we never know. With a key reversal system we just follow what happens rather than try to predict what will happen. There is enough money to be made by just following trends. I know, trend following is really boring, and trying to forecast the next turn in the market is so much more exciting and ego gratifying. But who cares if trend following makes $ ? If you really crave for the casino excitement of picking tops or bottoms and the joys of catching falling knives, then the best solution is to use 10% of your capital for it, while devoting the rest to a good trend following approach.

* Gold , Euro and oil also remain bullish, but with MoM going down on the daily level they are likely to pull back towards their daily key reversal levels. Best strategy is keeping a rather tight stop in all these markets, and get out if they close below their key reversal levels. If MoM turns back upwards we can become more confident that the rallies continue.

* We have new or refined Top2 targets for a number of markets. For the Nasdaq we have 4566 as a new target. For the S&P 500 the refined Top2 target is now at 1934. These targets will come into play if these indexes manage to break above their Top1 targets.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,308.12 3,919.59 6.55 60 39.46
S&P 500 1,859.45 1,771.12 2.53 65 31.29
Nikkei 14,841.07 15,224.42 -1.96 3 1.32
FTSE 100 6,809.70 6,577.61 0.88 1 -0.42
DAX 9,692.08 9,080.79 3.51 33 17.65
Bonds (TLT) 108.57 104.97 2.84 5 1.26
Gold (spot) 1,326.39 1,267.90 1.58 2 0.62
$EURUSD 1.3798 1.3517 0.94 31 3.88
Oil (CL) 102.59 96.96 1.87 2 2.47

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

2/28/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,308.12 4,197.98 7.59 14 4.44 2
S&P 500 1,859.45 1,815.64 6.19 12 2.16 2
Nikkei 14,841.07 14,740.18 2.59 3 -0.37 9
FTSE 100 6,809.70 6,693.29 6.01 13 2.05 2
DAX 9,692.08 9,487.87 3.62 13 1.97 2
Bonds (TLT) 108.57 106.27 3.69 34 4.63 1
Gold (spot) 1,326.39 1,295.99 5.40 35 6.28 2
$EURUSD 1.3798 1.3665 2.23 15 1.34 2
Oil (CL) 102.59 99.24 5.09 26 6.10 2

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4566 * 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1934 * 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 * 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 * 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter. We also try to tweet the daily key reversal levels every day.

Good luck, Danny

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for February 28

Posted by Danny on February 28, 2014

Latest daily key reversal levels:

key reversals

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W: weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments:

* There was a little glitch in my table calculations which caused the MoM indicator to be off in some cases. This is now completely fixed.

* Weekly mode for S&P 500 is weak bullish (light green), not strong bullish as reported last weekend. The other markets were OK.

* Despite pushing to marginal new highs, most stock indexes continue to show declining MoM on the daily level (and thus weak bullish mode – light green). This means a pause or pullback is likely, so keep a stop-loss close to the market. If MoM turns back up it would indicate a continuation of the bull run.

* Bonds (TLT) continue to be fully bullish. Now up almost 5% since bonds gave their buy signal 33 days ago. Not bad. Keep an eye on our Top1 target for TLT at 111.80

* $EURUSD is barely staying above its key reversal level. With MoM to the downside the euro could go into declining mode any day.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter.

Danny

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of February 24, 2014

Posted by Danny on February 22, 2014

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,263.41 3,903.20 6.03 59 38.01
S&P 500 1,836.25 1,766.65 2.27 64 29.65
Nikkei 14,865.67 15,239.04 -1.45 2 1.49
FTSE 100 6,838.10 6,554.90 0.42 0 0.00
DAX 9,656.95 9,056.11 3.64 32 17.23
Bonds (TLT) 106.67 104.84 2.86 4 -0.51
Gold (spot) 1,323.79 1,262.47 0.72 1 0.43
$EURUSD 1.3735 1.3499 0.64 30 3.41
Oil (CL) 102.20 96.62 1.02 1 2.08

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments on the weekly key reversal levels:

* Nasdaq, S&P 500 and FTSE100 are back to fully bullish with upward MoM. Nikkei remains the weaker market, with the DAX still hesitating as well.

* $EURUSD is seeing MoM turn up again, so bullish tendency for euro continues.

Latest daily key reversal levels:

21/02/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,263.41 4,152.01 7.95 9 3.35 1
S&P 500 1,836.25 1,802.48 6.71 7 0.89 1
Nikkei 14,865.67 15,029.70 -1.33 19 -1.50 12
FTSE 100 6,838.10 6,645.03 6.59 8 2.48 1
DAX 9,656.95 9,434.48 5.74 8 1.60 6
Bonds (TLT) 106.67 105.86 -1.85 29 2.79 17
Gold (spot) 1,323.79 1,278.36 7.13 30 6.07 2
$EURUSD 1.3735 1.3647 4.16 10 0.88 1
Oil (CL) 102.20 98.24 7.37 21 5.70 1

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments on the daily key reversal levels:

* All daily signals are nicely in the green (see %Ch. column). This shows the merits of simple trend following versus trying to forecast the next bottom or top.

* Most stock indexes remain in strong bullish mode on the daily level, with Nikkei and DAX being the exceptions. Eventually the current stock market rally will peter out and then we will see MoM turn down for most markets.

* Bonds (TLT), euro and oil are also in fully bullish pictures wit no signs of a top yet. Just go along until the bus stops.

* Gold is hesitating after its recent strong rally. With MoM still at a relatively high 7.13 this pauze could continue for a while. If MoM turns back up before gold drops below its key reversal level, then it will be a good chance to enter (or add to) long gold positions. In a young bull market it is important to try to buy the dips.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1926 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 5980 *
DAX 9800 10120 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 * 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Latest developments:

* For gold we have an improved Top1 target at $1424

* FTSE100 has an adjusted Bottom2 target of 5980

* Nasdaq has pushed above its long standing target at 4200, so 4390 is now the next Top1 target.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter. We also try to tweet the daily key reversal levels every day.

Good luck, Danny

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for February 21

Posted by Danny on February 21, 2014

Latest daily key reversal levels:

key reversals

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W: weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments:

* Today we see momentum (MoM) turn down for the DAX and for gold. So, they are now in mildly bullish mode, which means they may have peaked for a while.

* When MoM turns down after a rally, it is generally a good idea to take partial profits. We see that the DAX is up 1.2% since it went into bullish mode 7 days, while gold is up 5.97% since it turned bullish 29 days ago. Taking partial profits means you remove the risk from the remaining position, and then you just keep using the key reversal level as your stop-loss. This will gradually lock in more profits until the market goes into bearish mode eventually.

* MoM turning down after a rally is also the point where you can initiate speculative short positions to benefit from a possible pullback or correction. It is important to estimate risk/reward before going short when MoM turns down. The risk depends on how far the entry price is away from a recent high (as we will need to use a stop-loss just above a recent high). The reward can be estimated from the key reversal table. If the given market is strongly bullish (dark green) on the weekly(W) level, as is the case for gold, then the daily key reversal level is going to be the approximate profit target. E.g. for gold we see the key reversal at $1274 , which is about 50$ below the current levels. The recent high for gold was $1333.2, which is about $10 above curent levels. So, the risk on a short trade would be ~$10 with a profit potential of ~$50. That’s OK for a quick trade. But one has to reassess the risk and reward every day, because the daily key reversal will come up (reducing the remaining potential in the trade). So, if all goes well, only $35 or $25 of the profit potential may be realized. That’s still not bad for a $10 risk.

* This is just an example of how key reversal levels can be used. Stay tuned for more strategies when my upcoming ebook is ready.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter.

Danny

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for week of February 17, 2014

Posted by Danny on February 16, 2014

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,244.02 3,887.92 5.84 58 37.38
S&P 500 1,838.63 1,762.35 2.22 63 29.82
Nikkei 14,313.03 15,278.16 -0.10 1 -2.29
FTSE 100 6,663.60 6,694.57 0.18 2 2.35
DAX 9,662.40 9,029.39 3.71 31 17.29
Bonds (TLT) 106.58 104.74 2.49 3 -0.60
Gold (spot) 1,318.25 1,257.77 -0.62 0 0.00
$EURUSD 1.3689 1.3475 0.40 29 3.06
Oil (CL) 100.30 96.34 -0.14 0 0.00

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments on the weekly key reversal levels:

* Gold has closed above its weekly key reversal level and is now in bullish mode for the first time in 60 weeks.

* Crude oil has also turned bullish on the weekly level.

Latest daily key reversal levels:

14/02/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,244.02 4,111.21 4.59 5 2.88 5
S&P 500 1,838.63 1,792.22 3.77 3 1.02 5
Nikkei 14,313.03 15,120.36 -6.26 14 -5.16 12
FTSE 100 6,663.60 6,585.68 1.62 3 -0.14 9
DAX 9,662.40 9,342.27 2.42 3 1.65 5
Bonds (TLT) 106.58 105.80 -1.40 25 2.71 2
Gold (spot) 1,318.25 1,254.87 4.82 25 5.63 1
$EURUSD 1.3689 1.3580 1.59 5 0.54 5
Oil (CL) 100.30 97.12 5.68 17 3.73 1

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments on the daily key reversal levels:

* Nearly all stock indexes are rallying nicely with continued rising MoM. Exception is the Nikkei, which has been acting significantly weaker since the start of the year.

* Gold, oil and $EURUSD are also continuing to rise.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4200 4390 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1926 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 6110
DAX 9800 10120 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1298 1448 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Latest developments:

* No new targets.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter. We also try to tweet the daily key reversal levels every day.

Good luck, Danny

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Key reversal levels for February 12

Posted by Danny on February 12, 2014

Latest daily key reversal levels:

key reversals

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W: weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments:

* S&P 500, FTSE 100 and DAX have closed above their key reversal levels yesterday and are thus back into rally mode. This points to a continuation of the bull market. The Nikkei continues to lag.

* It remains to be seen if the rally will be strong enough to turn also the weekly MoM back to the upside. When that happens we will be back to a fully bullish picture for most stock markets.

* Gold is now testing its Top1 target at $1298. I would expect some selling to emerge at that level. If gold can close the week above $1303.82 then it will go bullish for the first time in more than a year.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter.

Danny

 

Enhanced by Zemanta

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
%d bloggers like this: