LunaticTrader

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Posts Tagged ‘LT wave’

LT wave for August 2019

Posted by Danny on August 2, 2019

The LT wave did a mediocre job in July. Projected strength until around the 10th panned out OK, with the S&P climbing to a new record above 3000 for the first time. The subsequent weak period produced sideways trading, with little or no weakness until the final day of the month.

Here is the LT wave chart for August:

ltwaveAug2019

August is expected to start with an upward bias, with a peak value around the 7th. Then a weak period until the 25th. The final days of August look much stronger again.

Reminder for new readers: the LT wave is experimental, so don’t bet the farm on it.

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LT wave for July 2019

Posted by Danny on July 1, 2019

June was not an easy month for trading our LT wave: https://lunatictrader.com/2019/06/03/lt-wave-for-june-2019/
Expected strength in the first week pushed the S&P back above 2900. The weaker second half of the month did not produce much downside action, the market kept climbing, but at a slower rate.
This suggests the path of least resistance is up.

Here is the LT wave for July:

ltwaveJul2019

Again we have projected early month strength. The highest LT wave value comes on the 4th, but there is likely to be carry on momentum until around the 10th. The second half of the month looks weak again, but with more negative extremes than last month. The lowest LT wave values come in the 27-29th period.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

LT wave for June 2019

Posted by Danny on June 3, 2019

The LT wave for May did a fair job. The neutral readings in the first week gave more downside action than expected. The stronger second week produced the only multi-day rally attempt of the month. And the second half of May was as weak as projected by the wave. Not bad.

Here is the expected pattern for June:

ltwaveJun2019

Weakness ends around the 3rd and gives way to a more positive week with a peak value around the 7th. The second half of the month is projected to be weaker again.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for May 2019

Posted by Danny on May 1, 2019

The LT wave for April has been pretty useless. In a one way market there is little or no space for cycles to asset themselves. That’s how it goes sometimes. Sooner or later more normal patterns will return.

Here is the LT wave for May:

ltwaveMay2019

The wave did reasonably well until the middle of the April. But expected weakness in the final 10 days completely failed to show up and market climbed to new record highs instead.

The LT wave for May stays close to neutral line until the 10th. Then there is a brief positive period until the 15th. The second half of the month is projected to be weak again.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

LT wave for April 2019

Posted by Danny on April 1, 2019

The LT wave did a pretty good job in March, which is interesting because the projected pattern went against the normal green and red periods: LT wave for March.

This is the wave for April:

ltwaveApr2019

Projected weakness in the first week of March came right on target. The subsequent stronger period until the 22nd panned out nicely too, the S&P 500 reached its high for the month on the 21st. The final week of March saw consolidation, in line with expected weakness.

For April a good start is expected with a peak value around the 5th. Then some weakness until the 13th, followed by another strong week with a possible high on the 16th or 17th. The final 10 days of the month are weak again.

As always, especially for newer readers, remember this wave is experimental and doesn’t rely on any market data. Last month’s performance doesn’t guarantee anything for the next month.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for March 2019

Posted by Danny on March 4, 2019

Stocks kept climbing in February. The LT wave did an OK job in calling the major swings. But in an ongoing uptrend the downswing tend to be short or shallow and that’s exactly what we got.

Here is the LT wave for March:

ltwaveMar2019

The wave projected February 1 to be a low followed by strength, which panned out OK. The subsequent weaker period only produced a few days of downside action and the S&P 500 rallied to 2800+ by the end of the next stronger period. The projected weakness in the final week led to sideways consolidation.

The March pattern projects weakness until around the 4th followed by a strong period until the 22nd, although this could contain a quick pullback around the 14-15th. The final weak of the month is weaker again.

For new readers: the LT wave is experimental, so we can’t give any guarantee that the projected patterns will materialize. We can be happy if it “works” about 60% of the time.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

LT wave for February 2019

Posted by Danny on February 1, 2019

The LT wave did a mediocre job in January. Expected weakness in the first trading days of the year panned out OK. But after that the wave gave us a difficult read. The market burst higher into the first expected peak on the 8th, but didn’t really stop there. There was some sideways crosscurrents type trading in the 3rd week, but the market ended right at its highs, producing the best January gains in over 30 years.

Here is how the LT wave continues into February:

ltwavefeb2019

A weak period ends around the 3rd, followed by strength until the 8th. Then a weak period until the 16th, and stronger again until the 24th. The waves are a bit clearer defined then they were in January, so we will see.
There is a noticeable peak value on the 6th and another one around the 19th. Lowest LT wave values on the 1st and the 13th.

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LT wave for January 2019

Posted by Danny on January 2, 2019

Our LT wave had a good month. Expected strength in the first week did not pan out and hardly kept the market up, leading into the expected weak period which took the market significantly lower. The rebound in the final week came right on target. This is the LT wave for January:

ltwaveJan2019

The month is projected to start with a weak period until the 5th. And after that we enter a period of cross-currents which are difficult to read because the quicker blue line starts moving countercyclical to the slower yellow smoothed average line. Normally they move more or less in tandem, but that’s not the case this month.

What will take priority? I don’t know. Maybe it will be a sideways month, with the market looking for its next major direction, testing both the upside and the downside alternatively. Going on the blue line we see projected peaks on the 8th and the 27th. Bottom values come on the 5th, the 16th and the 30th. I am curious what will come of it.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for December

Posted by Danny on December 3, 2018

The LT wave was close to perfect for November. S&P 500 peaked on the 8th and bottomed on the 23rd, very close to the high and low indicated in the LT wave chart.
For December the wave projects a very similar pattern:

ltwaveDec2018

Strength in the first week (with a peak value on the 6th) is again followed by mid-month weakness that ends at an important low on the 21st. The final week of the year shows stronger again, but that will probably come in thin holiday trading so I wouldn’t bet the bank on it.
Don’t get carried away by LT wave doing very well for a month or two. There will always be months when it is doing a lukewarm job, if not worse.
Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 15 Comments »

LT wave for November

Posted by Danny on November 1, 2018

The LT for October did a mixed job. The expected strong period in the second week did not pan out at all and the market just went into a steady decline. The projected weakness in the second half of the month was obviously correct. For November the expected pattern looks like this:

ltwaveNov2018

A positive bias is expected to continue until around the 11th with a noticeable peak value on the 9th. Then there is a weaker period until the 26th followed by more positive values in the final days of the month.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

 
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