Another good month for the LT wave in January.

Mild weakness in the first week came as expected and was followed by the stronger period the wave had indicated, giving us a 250 point rally. In the final days of the month we had a bit of a pullback. Doesn’t get much better.

Here is the LT wave for February:

We have a rather neutral read in the first days (going by the yellow line), and then a stronger period until around the 11th (which has the highest value of the month in the shorter term blue line). Then weakness until the 19th and stronger again for the remainder of the month.

Normal caveats apply: the LT wave is experimental and doesn’t use any market or price inputs. Don’t bet the farm on it.

The LT wave had a fair month in December.

The projected strength in the first days contained a weekend, and the subsequent weakness pulled the market down from the 5th. A few stronger days came on target and pulled the market back up. But that was very short-lived and soon followed by a serious drop in the next weak period. The final week of December was disappointing and failed to produce any rally worth talking about. Sometimes such a clear failure foretells underlying weakness, but we will see.

Here is the LT wave for January:

Mild weakness until around the 8th to start the year. Then a stronger period until around the 25th. The final days of the month are weak.

Normal caveats apply: the LT wave is experimental and doesn’t use any market or price inputs. Don’t bet the farm on it.

The LT wave had another good month in November.

The projected weakness in the first week produced a 200 point pullback. A then stocks bounced back in the subsequent stronger period. The final weeks were just a flat sideways around the 4k level until the very last day when the market burst to new rebound highs.

Here is the LT wave for December:

Strength to continue until around the 4th. Then a weaker period until the 13th. After a few stronger days this weakness returns until the 23rd. The final week of December looks stronger again.

Normal caveats apply: the LT wave is experimental and doesn’t use any market or price inputs. Don’t bet the farm on it.

The LT wave had a good month in October.

The projected weakness in the first half of the month saw the market decline to new lows for the year. The subsequent stronger period produced a pretty spectacular rebound rally. And in the final days we had some weakness again, as indicated by the Wave.

Here is the LT wave for November:

Weakness until around the 6th. Then a stronger period until around the 20th. The final week of the month is just mishmash. But that doesn’t mean the final week will be flat. The LT wave is detrended to show the expected short term swings. A neutral reading tends to go in the direction of the overall trend that is in place by that time.

Normal caveats apply: the LT wave is experimental and doesn’t use any market or price inputs. Don’t bet the farm on it.

The LT wave had another poor month in September.

The expected weakness in the first week was just a sideways. The next 3 weeks were expected to be strong, but that only held up until the 12th, when a relentless decline started. When projected strength fails to show up so spectacularly it points to a strong underlying downtrend. For how long? Next month may tell us.

Here is the LT wave for October:

Weakness is projected to intensify and could continue until around the 20th, when a stronger week is in the cards.

Normal caveats apply: the LT wave is experimental and doesn’t use any market or price inputs. Don’t bet the farm on it.

The LT wave had a poor month in August.

The expected weakness in the first 3 weeks actually gave us a rising market until the middle of the month. And the projected stronger final week did not show up either. It doesn’t get any worse.

Here how it is expected to continue in September:

Weakness is expected to continue in the first week and then be followed by a more positive period in the remaining 3 weeks.

Normal caveats apply: the LT wave is experimental and doesn’t use any market or price inputs. Don’t bet the farm on it.

The LT wave had a reasonably good month in June.

Expected strength in the first 10 days barely kept the market up and was followed by a significant downturn in the subsequent weaker period. The final week produced a rebound attempt.

Here how it is expected to continue in July:

The current stronger period is projected to continue until July 5th. Then an extended weaker period until around the 26th. The final 5 days of the month look very strong.

Normal caveats apply: the LT wave is experimental and doesn’t use any market or price inputs. Don’t bet the farm on it.

The LT wave did a lousy job in May.

Expected strength in the first 3 weeks didn’t materialize at all. And the projected weakness in the final week actually gave us a little rally. Doesn’t get any worse.

Here how it is expected to continue in June:

A strong start that can continue until around the 12th. Then a weak period until the 25th. The final days of the month should bring another push higher.

Normal caveats apply: the LT wave is experimental and doesn’t use any market or price inputs. Don’t bet the farm on it.

The LT wave did an OK job in April.

Expected strength in the first days was short-lived again, and followed by a significant decline in the subsequent weak period. The wave was correct on the overall direction but not on the magnitude of the move. Sometimes it is like that.

Here how it is expected to continue in May:

There is projected strength for the first 3 weeks, and of course there is plenty room for some rebound rally here. The last week of the month is when we can expect some weakness to return .

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

March was an excellent month for our LT wave.

Expected strength in the first week was a bit short-lived, but then we got the expected weakness until the 15th. The rest of the month was projected to be stronger again and it did by rallying 400 points! It doesn’t get much better than that.

Here how it is expected to continue in April:

The stronger period is on its last legs and mild weakness should set in for the rest of the month. It’s only mildly negative, but that makes it harder to rely on. After the results of last month you may feel more tempted to put some money on the line, but personally I would take a pass on this graph.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.