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Posts Tagged ‘LT wave’

LT wave for Apr 2020

Posted by Danny on April 1, 2020

March was one of the most dramatic months ever for stocks. How did our LT wave hold up?

Weakness in the first week of the month came as expected, and how? The somewhat stronger 2nd week did not stop the ongoing decline, but it produced one of the biggest dead-cat-bounce days ever, with a nearly 10% climb on March 13. The crash continued until the 23rd, which was the final day of the second weak period. A 400 point rebound rally followed in the remaining strong days of the month, and the market has been going sideways since. Here we can see that price action as well as the project pattern for April:

ltwaveApr2020

We see some mild weakness in the first days of April, quickly followed by a strong period until the 14th. Weakness until the 22nd and the final week of the month looks stronger again.
A significant peak value is seen around April 8 (+/- 1 day). This could produce a strong up day or a first important peak after the Mar 23 low. But I can’t guarantee anything. As regular readers know, this LT wave is experimental, so don’t bet the farm on it.

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LT wave for March 2020

Posted by Danny on March 2, 2020

The LT wave did poorly in February. The climb in the early part of the month panned out well and the market went to new records. But the coronavirus panic in the final week washed out our wave cycle and we had a serious decline when some market was strength was expected.

Here is the projected pattern for March:

ltwaveMar2020

We have a weak period until around the 9th with a lowest value on the 7th. After that the values hover around the neutral line with some weaker days alternating with stronger days, but nothing outstanding. It’s hard to tell how this may pan out.

Maybe we will get a rather weak rebound from whatever lows are reached in this decline, and then a retest of the lows on the weak days that happen towards the end of March.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

LT wave for February 2020

Posted by Danny on February 3, 2020

The LT wave did fairly well in January. The month started slow with some downward pressure in the first week. The subsequent stronger period in the middle of January took the market to new record highs. Then weakness kicked in for the remainder of the month, giving back all its gains since January 1st.

Here is the LT wave pattern for February:

ltwaveFeb2020

Weakness in the first days, followed by a strong period until around the 15th. Then some mild weakness until the 21st, followed by strength until the end of February. Overall it looks pretty positive, but remember this method is experimental so don’t bet the farm on it.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for January 2020

Posted by Danny on January 2, 2020

After a few weak months our LT wave seems to have kicked back into the proper gear. This is the projected price pattern for S&P 500 in January:

ltwaveJan2020

After expected weakness in early December the market flatlined a bit before bursting higher in the subsequent strong period. For January the wave suggests a weak period until around the 9th, followed by a stronger week. Weakness kicks in again after the 19th, only interrupted by a few strong days around the 25th.

Good luck and happy 2020s.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 5 Comments »

LT wave for December 2019

Posted by Danny on December 2, 2019

The LT wave has not worked all that well in recent months. That pattern continued in November. In a one way market there is of course not much room for short term cycles to show up.

Here is what happened in November and the LT wave projection for December:

ltwaveDec2019

November started with a few unexpected strong up days and then stayed rather flat until the middle of the month. Expected weakness didn’t really show up. In the subsequent strong period the S&P pushed above the 3100 barrier and went on to reach 3150 in the final trading days.

For December the wave projects some mild weakness in the first days, followed by a rather neutral period until the 14th. The second half looks stronger again but a quick dip is projected around the 23rd. Whether that will mean something in the usually thin trading around xmas remains to be seen.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

LT wave for November 2019

Posted by Danny on November 4, 2019

October was an interesting month and here is the LT wave for November:

ltwaveNov2019

Expected weakness until the 23rd proved to be more short-lived than expected. By the 20th the S&P was regaining the 3000 level already, and the subsequent strong period in the final week took the index to new record highs.

The pattern for November suggests another slow start with the second half of the month looking much stronger.

Reminder for new readers: the LT wave is experimental and relies no market data whatsoever. So don’t bet the bank on it.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for October 2019

Posted by Danny on October 3, 2019

Sorry for the delay, but here is the LT wave for October:

ltwaveOct2019

September started as expected, with an upward bias in the first week. The subsequent weaker period gave use a long sideways pattern with a slight downward trend. The projected strength in the final days of the month saw an attempt to climb back towards the 3000 level, but it failed very quickly.

For October the wave suggests weakness until around the 23rd, with LT wave lows on the 7th and 18th. The final week of the month is expected to be stronger. Given the very weak start in the first days a possible test of the August lows near 2820 is quite likely. If that level doesn’t hold then an ugly month is in the cards.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for September 2019

Posted by Danny on September 2, 2019

August was a very volatile month, with news items causing big swings in both directions. That’s not the easiest of environments to trade lunar cycles, but the LT wave didn’t perform too badly after all.

Expected upward bias failed to show up in the first week and the market had a steep drop. Next, a kind of triple bottom at 2820 was formed and the wave was back in sync with the market swings for the second half of August.

Here is the LT wave for September:

ltwaveSep2019

Positive bias is expected to continue until the 4th. This could allow the S&P 500 to break out above resistance at 2940. Then there is a weaker period until the 24th. If the market drops back below the 2820 triple bottom during this time then it can get pretty ugly. The final week of the month looks stronger again.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for August 2019

Posted by Danny on August 2, 2019

The LT wave did a mediocre job in July. Projected strength until around the 10th panned out OK, with the S&P climbing to a new record above 3000 for the first time. The subsequent weak period produced sideways trading, with little or no weakness until the final day of the month.

Here is the LT wave chart for August:

ltwaveAug2019

August is expected to start with an upward bias, with a peak value around the 7th. Then a weak period until the 25th. The final days of August look much stronger again.

Reminder for new readers: the LT wave is experimental, so don’t bet the farm on it.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for July 2019

Posted by Danny on July 1, 2019

June was not an easy month for trading our LT wave: https://lunatictrader.com/2019/06/03/lt-wave-for-june-2019/
Expected strength in the first week pushed the S&P back above 2900. The weaker second half of the month did not produce much downside action, the market kept climbing, but at a slower rate.
This suggests the path of least resistance is up.

Here is the LT wave for July:

ltwaveJul2019

Again we have projected early month strength. The highest LT wave value comes on the 4th, but there is likely to be carry on momentum until around the 10th. The second half of the month looks weak again, but with more negative extremes than last month. The lowest LT wave values come in the 27-29th period.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

 
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