LunaticTrader

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Posts Tagged ‘LT wave’

LT wave for December 2019

Posted by Danny on December 2, 2019

The LT wave has not worked all that well in recent months. That pattern continued in November. In a one way market there is of course not much room for short term cycles to show up.

Here is what happened in November and the LT wave projection for December:

ltwaveDec2019

November started with a few unexpected strong up days and then stayed rather flat until the middle of the month. Expected weakness didn’t really show up. In the subsequent strong period the S&P pushed above the 3100 barrier and went on to reach 3150 in the final trading days.

For December the wave projects some mild weakness in the first days, followed by a rather neutral period until the 14th. The second half looks stronger again but a quick dip is projected around the 23rd. Whether that will mean something in the usually thin trading around xmas remains to be seen.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 2 Comments »

LT wave for November 2019

Posted by Danny on November 4, 2019

October was an interesting month and here is the LT wave for November:

ltwaveNov2019

Expected weakness until the 23rd proved to be more short-lived than expected. By the 20th the S&P was regaining the 3000 level already, and the subsequent strong period in the final week took the index to new record highs.

The pattern for November suggests another slow start with the second half of the month looking much stronger.

Reminder for new readers: the LT wave is experimental and relies no market data whatsoever. So don’t bet the bank on it.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

LT wave for October 2019

Posted by Danny on October 3, 2019

Sorry for the delay, but here is the LT wave for October:

ltwaveOct2019

September started as expected, with an upward bias in the first week. The subsequent weaker period gave use a long sideways pattern with a slight downward trend. The projected strength in the final days of the month saw an attempt to climb back towards the 3000 level, but it failed very quickly.

For October the wave suggests weakness until around the 23rd, with LT wave lows on the 7th and 18th. The final week of the month is expected to be stronger. Given the very weak start in the first days a possible test of the August lows near 2820 is quite likely. If that level doesn’t hold then an ugly month is in the cards.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for September 2019

Posted by Danny on September 2, 2019

August was a very volatile month, with news items causing big swings in both directions. That’s not the easiest of environments to trade lunar cycles, but the LT wave didn’t perform too badly after all.

Expected upward bias failed to show up in the first week and the market had a steep drop. Next, a kind of triple bottom at 2820 was formed and the wave was back in sync with the market swings for the second half of August.

Here is the LT wave for September:

ltwaveSep2019

Positive bias is expected to continue until the 4th. This could allow the S&P 500 to break out above resistance at 2940. Then there is a weaker period until the 24th. If the market drops back below the 2820 triple bottom during this time then it can get pretty ugly. The final week of the month looks stronger again.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for August 2019

Posted by Danny on August 2, 2019

The LT wave did a mediocre job in July. Projected strength until around the 10th panned out OK, with the S&P climbing to a new record above 3000 for the first time. The subsequent weak period produced sideways trading, with little or no weakness until the final day of the month.

Here is the LT wave chart for August:

ltwaveAug2019

August is expected to start with an upward bias, with a peak value around the 7th. Then a weak period until the 25th. The final days of August look much stronger again.

Reminder for new readers: the LT wave is experimental, so don’t bet the farm on it.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for July 2019

Posted by Danny on July 1, 2019

June was not an easy month for trading our LT wave: https://lunatictrader.com/2019/06/03/lt-wave-for-june-2019/
Expected strength in the first week pushed the S&P back above 2900. The weaker second half of the month did not produce much downside action, the market kept climbing, but at a slower rate.
This suggests the path of least resistance is up.

Here is the LT wave for July:

ltwaveJul2019

Again we have projected early month strength. The highest LT wave value comes on the 4th, but there is likely to be carry on momentum until around the 10th. The second half of the month looks weak again, but with more negative extremes than last month. The lowest LT wave values come in the 27-29th period.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

LT wave for June 2019

Posted by Danny on June 3, 2019

The LT wave for May did a fair job. The neutral readings in the first week gave more downside action than expected. The stronger second week produced the only multi-day rally attempt of the month. And the second half of May was as weak as projected by the wave. Not bad.

Here is the expected pattern for June:

ltwaveJun2019

Weakness ends around the 3rd and gives way to a more positive week with a peak value around the 7th. The second half of the month is projected to be weaker again.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for May 2019

Posted by Danny on May 1, 2019

The LT wave for April has been pretty useless. In a one way market there is little or no space for cycles to asset themselves. That’s how it goes sometimes. Sooner or later more normal patterns will return.

Here is the LT wave for May:

ltwaveMay2019

The wave did reasonably well until the middle of the April. But expected weakness in the final 10 days completely failed to show up and market climbed to new record highs instead.

The LT wave for May stays close to neutral line until the 10th. Then there is a brief positive period until the 15th. The second half of the month is projected to be weak again.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

LT wave for April 2019

Posted by Danny on April 1, 2019

The LT wave did a pretty good job in March, which is interesting because the projected pattern went against the normal green and red periods: LT wave for March.

This is the wave for April:

ltwaveApr2019

Projected weakness in the first week of March came right on target. The subsequent stronger period until the 22nd panned out nicely too, the S&P 500 reached its high for the month on the 21st. The final week of March saw consolidation, in line with expected weakness.

For April a good start is expected with a peak value around the 5th. Then some weakness until the 13th, followed by another strong week with a possible high on the 16th or 17th. The final 10 days of the month are weak again.

As always, especially for newer readers, remember this wave is experimental and doesn’t rely on any market data. Last month’s performance doesn’t guarantee anything for the next month.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for March 2019

Posted by Danny on March 4, 2019

Stocks kept climbing in February. The LT wave did an OK job in calling the major swings. But in an ongoing uptrend the downswing tend to be short or shallow and that’s exactly what we got.

Here is the LT wave for March:

ltwaveMar2019

The wave projected February 1 to be a low followed by strength, which panned out OK. The subsequent weaker period only produced a few days of downside action and the S&P 500 rallied to 2800+ by the end of the next stronger period. The projected weakness in the final week led to sideways consolidation.

The March pattern projects weakness until around the 4th followed by a strong period until the 22nd, although this could contain a quick pullback around the 14-15th. The final weak of the month is weaker again.

For new readers: the LT wave is experimental, so we can’t give any guarantee that the projected patterns will materialize. We can be happy if it “works” about 60% of the time.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

 
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