We had a very interesting April with steadily rising stocks setting new records. The expected mild weakness in the first days didn’t really materialise, but the stronger final 3 weeks panned out beautifully. A nearly 5% rise for the S&P 500 within a month is something you don’t see very often.

For May the LT wave continues like this:

Weakness in the first half of the month, which could last until around the 13th. Then a stronger week until the 22nd.

Some sharper decline could come in the final week, with the blue values dropping to unusually low levels in the days around the 28th. It will be interesting to see what comes out of that.

The usual caveats apply. Good luck.

The wave had an excellent month in February. Expected strength in the first half of the month was right on target and lifted the S&P 500 to a new record high on the 16th. Then the projected weakness in the 3rd week came in, causing a pullback. Then there was another rally attempt in the final days, but it panned out weaker than expected.

Here is the LT wave for March:

There is initial strength in the first days, quickly followed by weakness until the 8th. Then the pattern shows a strong week in the middle of the month, which ends around the 16th. The final weeks of March are projected to be weak.

Good luck. And as always, the normal caveats apply. This LT wave is completely experimental and a good fit in the prior month doesn’t guarantee anything for the next one. Use common sense if you try to use it in your own trading.

The wave had a rather poor month in January. While we did get a see saw type of market, the pattern didn’t match the projected wave very well. No perfection in this world ;-)

Here is the LT wave for February:

There is projected strength in the first half of the month, with the possible exception of a few weaker days on or around the 8th. After the 15th there is significant weakening with some really low values on the 19th and 20th. The final week looks stronger, so if there is some kind of bottom around the 20th then a rebound is in the cards there.

Good luck.

The LT wave did a good job in December. The projected strong start of the month took the index above 3700 for the first time. The expected subsequent weakness until the 26th gave us a sideways choppy market. The stronger final days came right on target as well and allowed the S&P 500 to close the year at new all time record highs.

Here is the projected price pattern for January:

Strength until the 4th, followed by weakness until the 10th. Then another strong week is projected until around the 18th. The see saw continues with weakness until the 25th and the final days look strong again.

I am curious if and how this pattern will hold up, but it is what it is. As always, don’t bet the farm on it, this is an experimental method that doesn’t use any price or market input.

Good luck.

The LT wave was rather average in November. Expected mid-month strength started several days earlier than the wave indicated. The weakness in the final week was very mild, only producing a sideways.

Here is the projected price pattern for December:

The first 10 days look strong and are followed by a weaker period until around the 26th. The final days are expected to be stronger again.

Good luck and up to a happy 2021.

The LT wave had a good month in September.

Expected weakness in the first half of the month was right on target. I warned to be careful because not all weak periods produce gentle sideways. Indeed, the market dropped a few hundred points very quickly. The 3rd week was projected to be stronger, but all we got was a few dead cat bounce days. The low of the month was reached on the 24th, exactly on a bottom day in the blue line. Here is the wave for October:

The pattern is very similar to September. Weakness until around the 10th, followed by a stronger week. There is a high peak value on the 16th. And the final week of the month looks weaker again.

Good luck.

Markets surged in August and even though a one-way market will often most wash cycles away our LT wave did fairly well.

Expected strength in the first week of August was followed by a sideways in the subsequent weak period. The market then burst to new all time highs during the next strong period. The final days were flat again.

September is supposed to start with weakness until around the 12th. Not all weak periods are gentle sideways and investors may become a bit overconfident after such an “easy summer”. So, I would be careful. The 3rd week of September is expected to be stronger and the final week is weak again.

Good luck.

The LT wave did OK in July. The expected weak periods went mostly sideways, which is typical in bull moves. The peak of the month came right in the projected strong period on July 22. Here is the wave for August:

Strength in the first days of the month are again followed by a weak period until the 16th. Then another strong period with some very high peak values around the 21st. That would be the perfect timeframe for an S&P 500 top, but of course perfection rarely happens… The final week of August looks weak again.

Good luck.

The LT wave had a mixed month in June. Here is the LT wave pattern for July with my review and comments for the coming month:

Expected weakness in the first week of June did not pan out and the market peaked on the jump-out peak value on the 10th. The next week saw downside action as indicated by the wave. Projected strength in the final 10 days of the month was slow to show up. More a directionless sideways..

For July the current LT strong period carries on until around the 8th. The middle of the month shows a significant dip. Around the 20th another strong period starts, with renewed weakness in the final days.

The usual caveats apply. Good luck in your trading.

A couple of days later than normal, but better late than never.

Our LT wave had a mediocre month in May. Expected weakness until around the 20th was just a mild sideways and ended several days earlier than expected. The projected strong finish to the month did pan out nicely however.

Here is how the pattern continues into June:

Very similar to May. A projected weak period until the 20th, with a jump-out peak day on the 10th. The last 10 days of June are expected to be stronger.

Good luck.