The LT wave had a poor month in August.

The expected weakness in the first 3 weeks actually gave us a rising market until the middle of the month. And the projected stronger final week did not show up either. It doesn’t get any worse.

Here how it is expected to continue in September:

Weakness is expected to continue in the first week and then be followed by a more positive period in the remaining 3 weeks.

Normal caveats apply: the LT wave is experimental and doesn’t use any market or price inputs. Don’t bet the farm on it.

The LT wave had a reasonably good month in June.

Expected strength in the first 10 days barely kept the market up and was followed by a significant downturn in the subsequent weaker period. The final week produced a rebound attempt.

Here how it is expected to continue in July:

The current stronger period is projected to continue until July 5th. Then an extended weaker period until around the 26th. The final 5 days of the month look very strong.

Normal caveats apply: the LT wave is experimental and doesn’t use any market or price inputs. Don’t bet the farm on it.

The LT wave did a lousy job in May.

Expected strength in the first 3 weeks didn’t materialize at all. And the projected weakness in the final week actually gave us a little rally. Doesn’t get any worse.

Here how it is expected to continue in June:

A strong start that can continue until around the 12th. Then a weak period until the 25th. The final days of the month should bring another push higher.

Normal caveats apply: the LT wave is experimental and doesn’t use any market or price inputs. Don’t bet the farm on it.

The LT wave did an OK job in April.

Expected strength in the first days was short-lived again, and followed by a significant decline in the subsequent weak period. The wave was correct on the overall direction but not on the magnitude of the move. Sometimes it is like that.

Here how it is expected to continue in May:

There is projected strength for the first 3 weeks, and of course there is plenty room for some rebound rally here. The last week of the month is when we can expect some weakness to return .

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

March was an excellent month for our LT wave.

Expected strength in the first week was a bit short-lived, but then we got the expected weakness until the 15th. The rest of the month was projected to be stronger again and it did by rallying 400 points! It doesn’t get much better than that.

Here how it is expected to continue in April:

The stronger period is on its last legs and mild weakness should set in for the rest of the month. It’s only mildly negative, but that makes it harder to rely on. After the results of last month you may feel more tempted to put some money on the line, but personally I would take a pass on this graph.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

February was an interesting month for our LT wave.

Expected strength in the first weeks hardly produced a weak sideways, just like in January. This signaled underlying weakness and after the 19th the weak period took the index down to new lows for the year.

Here how it is expected to continue in March:

The month should start positively, so the current rebound may continue until the 6th. That is projected to be followed by weakness until the 15th. The second half of the month looks positive too, with the exception of a few weaker days around the 26th.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

January was a mediocre month for our LT wave.

Expected strength in the first week did not show up and the projected “slightly stronger” 3rd week did not see any rally either. It was all the way down, so naturally the expected weaker periods “worked”.

But it was a remarkable month, one of the worst January declines in many years, and how it is expected to continue is shown in the LT wave chart for February:

The LT wave is expected to turn positive for the first two weeks. We should get a rebound rally during this period, but we can’t foretell how powerful it will be. After the 19th the LT wave goes through a weaker period, with strength projected to come back on the final day.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

December was another excellent month for our LT wave.

Expected strength until the 9th allowed the index to climb back to 4700. The weaker period until the 20th was pretty mild and mostly sideways. That set up the market for a climb above 4800 in the final week.

How it is expected to continue is shown in the LT wave chart for January:

LT wave stays positive until around the 6th, so we could see new highs early in the year. Then a weaker period until the 15th or 16th. Slightly stronger until the 23rd, followed by a weaker final week. The patterns are not very outspoken, so we will see.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

The LT wave did very well for September.

Expected strength early in the month was rather underwhelming and hardly kept the S&P 500 above 4500. The final 3 weeks, when weakness was projected, produced one of the biggest selloffs so far this year, dropping over 200 points and ending the month near the lows. How does it continue?

Here is the LT wave chart for October:

Perhaps surprisingly, the wave projects a strong period from the get go, with a very high peak value on the 6th, but strength could stretch out until around the 17th. The market may use this to recover some (or all?) of the September losses, but how high such a rebound might go can not be foretold from the LT wave. Then a weaker period until the 27th, with a couple of stronger days to finish the month.

It will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.