The wave had a rather poor month in January. While we did get a see saw type of market, the pattern didn’t match the projected wave very well. No perfection in this world ;-)

Here is the LT wave for February:

There is projected strength in the first half of the month, with the possible exception of a few weaker days on or around the 8th. After the 15th there is significant weakening with some really low values on the 19th and 20th. The final week looks stronger, so if there is some kind of bottom around the 20th then a rebound is in the cards there.

Good luck.

The LT wave did a good job in December. The projected strong start of the month took the index above 3700 for the first time. The expected subsequent weakness until the 26th gave us a sideways choppy market. The stronger final days came right on target as well and allowed the S&P 500 to close the year at new all time record highs.

Here is the projected price pattern for January:

Strength until the 4th, followed by weakness until the 10th. Then another strong week is projected until around the 18th. The see saw continues with weakness until the 25th and the final days look strong again.

I am curious if and how this pattern will hold up, but it is what it is. As always, don’t bet the farm on it, this is an experimental method that doesn’t use any price or market input.

Good luck.

The LT wave was rather average in November. Expected mid-month strength started several days earlier than the wave indicated. The weakness in the final week was very mild, only producing a sideways.

Here is the projected price pattern for December:

The first 10 days look strong and are followed by a weaker period until around the 26th. The final days are expected to be stronger again.

Good luck and up to a happy 2021.

The LT wave had a good month in September.

Expected weakness in the first half of the month was right on target. I warned to be careful because not all weak periods produce gentle sideways. Indeed, the market dropped a few hundred points very quickly. The 3rd week was projected to be stronger, but all we got was a few dead cat bounce days. The low of the month was reached on the 24th, exactly on a bottom day in the blue line. Here is the wave for October:

The pattern is very similar to September. Weakness until around the 10th, followed by a stronger week. There is a high peak value on the 16th. And the final week of the month looks weaker again.

Good luck.

Markets surged in August and even though a one-way market will often most wash cycles away our LT wave did fairly well.

Expected strength in the first week of August was followed by a sideways in the subsequent weak period. The market then burst to new all time highs during the next strong period. The final days were flat again.

September is supposed to start with weakness until around the 12th. Not all weak periods are gentle sideways and investors may become a bit overconfident after such an “easy summer”. So, I would be careful. The 3rd week of September is expected to be stronger and the final week is weak again.

Good luck.

The LT wave did OK in July. The expected weak periods went mostly sideways, which is typical in bull moves. The peak of the month came right in the projected strong period on July 22. Here is the wave for August:

Strength in the first days of the month are again followed by a weak period until the 16th. Then another strong period with some very high peak values around the 21st. That would be the perfect timeframe for an S&P 500 top, but of course perfection rarely happens… The final week of August looks weak again.

Good luck.

The LT wave had a mixed month in June. Here is the LT wave pattern for July with my review and comments for the coming month:

Expected weakness in the first week of June did not pan out and the market peaked on the jump-out peak value on the 10th. The next week saw downside action as indicated by the wave. Projected strength in the final 10 days of the month was slow to show up. More a directionless sideways..

For July the current LT strong period carries on until around the 8th. The middle of the month shows a significant dip. Around the 20th another strong period starts, with renewed weakness in the final days.

The usual caveats apply. Good luck in your trading.

A couple of days later than normal, but better late than never.

Our LT wave had a mediocre month in May. Expected weakness until around the 20th was just a mild sideways and ended several days earlier than expected. The projected strong finish to the month did pan out nicely however.

Here is how the pattern continues into June:

Very similar to May. A projected weak period until the 20th, with a jump-out peak day on the 10th. The last 10 days of June are expected to be stronger.

Good luck.

The LT wave did an almost perfect job in April. Here is the projected price pattern for May:

The expected strong period until the 14th of April gave us a cracking 300 point rally in the S&P 500, almost like printing money. The subsequent weak period until the 22nd was a sideways pause with a mild pullback. And the final stronger week produced another nice rally, which is still ongoing..

The strength continues into the first days of May, but next week an extended weaker period is projected to start. The blue line suggests a few stronger days around the 13th, but basically the weak period stretches until the 21st, when another strong period is suppose to start.

After a good month new readers are easily tempted to use those patterns in their trading, so I have to repeat again that this wave is experimental and last month’s performance guarantees nothing. I think it is always better to just observe a system over a longer period of many months or years and not start using it until you have enough experience on how it “works” and how it “fails”. Good luck.

March was one of the most dramatic months ever for stocks. How did our LT wave hold up?

Weakness in the first week of the month came as expected, and how? The somewhat stronger 2nd week did not stop the ongoing decline, but it produced one of the biggest dead-cat-bounce days ever, with a nearly 10% climb on March 13. The crash continued until the 23rd, which was the final day of the second weak period. A 400 point rebound rally followed in the remaining strong days of the month, and the market has been going sideways since. Here we can see that price action as well as the project pattern for April:

We see some mild weakness in the first days of April, quickly followed by a strong period until the 14th. Weakness until the 22nd and the final week of the month looks stronger again.
A significant peak value is seen around April 8 (+/- 1 day). This could produce a strong up day or a first important peak after the Mar 23 low. But I can’t guarantee anything. As regular readers know, this LT wave is experimental, so don’t bet the farm on it.