The LT wave did an OK job in April.

Expected strength in the first days was short-lived again, and followed by a significant decline in the subsequent weak period. The wave was correct on the overall direction but not on the magnitude of the move. Sometimes it is like that.

Here how it is expected to continue in May:

There is projected strength for the first 3 weeks, and of course there is plenty room for some rebound rally here. The last week of the month is when we can expect some weakness to return .

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

March was an excellent month for our LT wave.

Expected strength in the first week was a bit short-lived, but then we got the expected weakness until the 15th. The rest of the month was projected to be stronger again and it did by rallying 400 points! It doesn’t get much better than that.

Here how it is expected to continue in April:

The stronger period is on its last legs and mild weakness should set in for the rest of the month. It’s only mildly negative, but that makes it harder to rely on. After the results of last month you may feel more tempted to put some money on the line, but personally I would take a pass on this graph.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

February was an interesting month for our LT wave.

Expected strength in the first weeks hardly produced a weak sideways, just like in January. This signaled underlying weakness and after the 19th the weak period took the index down to new lows for the year.

Here how it is expected to continue in March:

The month should start positively, so the current rebound may continue until the 6th. That is projected to be followed by weakness until the 15th. The second half of the month looks positive too, with the exception of a few weaker days around the 26th.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

January was a mediocre month for our LT wave.

Expected strength in the first week did not show up and the projected “slightly stronger” 3rd week did not see any rally either. It was all the way down, so naturally the expected weaker periods “worked”.

But it was a remarkable month, one of the worst January declines in many years, and how it is expected to continue is shown in the LT wave chart for February:

The LT wave is expected to turn positive for the first two weeks. We should get a rebound rally during this period, but we can’t foretell how powerful it will be. After the 19th the LT wave goes through a weaker period, with strength projected to come back on the final day.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

December was another excellent month for our LT wave.

Expected strength until the 9th allowed the index to climb back to 4700. The weaker period until the 20th was pretty mild and mostly sideways. That set up the market for a climb above 4800 in the final week.

How it is expected to continue is shown in the LT wave chart for January:

LT wave stays positive until around the 6th, so we could see new highs early in the year. Then a weaker period until the 15th or 16th. Slightly stronger until the 23rd, followed by a weaker final week. The patterns are not very outspoken, so we will see.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

The LT wave did very well for September.

Expected strength early in the month was rather underwhelming and hardly kept the S&P 500 above 4500. The final 3 weeks, when weakness was projected, produced one of the biggest selloffs so far this year, dropping over 200 points and ending the month near the lows. How does it continue?

Here is the LT wave chart for October:

Perhaps surprisingly, the wave projects a strong period from the get go, with a very high peak value on the 6th, but strength could stretch out until around the 17th. The market may use this to recover some (or all?) of the September losses, but how high such a rebound might go can not be foretold from the LT wave. Then a weaker period until the 27th, with a couple of stronger days to finish the month.

It will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

It was a rather average month for the LT wave in August.

Expected weakness in the first 4 days gave us sideways action, which was followed by a nice rally in the subsequent strong period. A peak was reached on the 16th, when the strong period ended. Then the market pulled back sharply in the beginning of the next weak period, but rebounded much more sharply and quickly than our LT wave projected. New record highs were reached before the end of the month already, so the sustained weak period did not pan out.

Here is the LT wave chart for September:

The beginning of September shows continued strength until around the 10th, with a high peak value on the 8th. The final 3 weeks look significantly weaker, with the possibility of a few stronger days around the 17th.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

It wasn’t a good month for the LT wave in July. Expected weakness until the 7th did not pan out. Stocks kept rising and there was just a pretty sharp drop around the 19th, instantly followed by a further climb. The expected weakness in the final days only produced sideways action. How does it continue?

For August the LT wave looks like this:

Weakness until the 4th, followed by a strong week until around the 15th. The second half of the months looks significantly weaker.

The usual caveats apply. Good luck.

It was a weird month for the LT wave price projection. Expected weakness in the 1st week came on target, but was mild. As projected it was followed by a stronger week that took the index to new records. The market then dipped as one would expect from the chart, but the final 10 days of the month where everything but weak, and kept grinding up to new record highs day after day. A very surprising twist in the plot. How does it continue?

For July the LT wave looks like this:

The current weak period, which hasn’t produced any weakness so far, is set to continue and intensify until the 7th. Will we get a belated drop that wipes out all gains of the recent week? Or will the rally just continue straight into the next stronger period, which comes in the middle of the month and may stretch until the 27th? I have no idea.

The final days of July is when some weakness appears again.

The usual caveats apply. Good luck.