Investing with the Moon

Posts Tagged ‘LT wave’

LT wave for February

Posted by Danny on February 5, 2018

Markets have finally started a pullback. We did get a 1% down day for first time since August and we also got a 2% down week for the first time since Sep 2016. This means we are starting to see more volatility, but that doesn’t mean this bull market is over already. See my recent article.

Here is the current S&P 500 chart:

^SP500 (Daily) 4_27_2016 - 2_2_2018

No major trend lines have been broken so far, but all my indicators are pointing down now. The Earl (blue line) peaked out a week ago and is dropping fast. The slower Earl2 painted a major peak a few days ago and is nowhere near bottom territory. The MoM indicator has also turned down after reaching the maximum euphoria +10 for a few days. This is not how a good buying opportunity looks like, but we are entering a lunar green period and I do expect some strong rebound days, but probably not new highs any time soon.
I would just wait for the dust to settle and once my 3 indicators start bottoming out we can look for new buying entries.

The LT wave did poorly in January. Expected strength in the first weeks panned out ok, but that strength continued well into the projected weak period. Those gains were given back in the last week, so it wasn’t too bad after all. But the timing of peaks and bottoms didn’t match.
Here is the LT wave for February:


It looks very volatile with alternating stronger and weaker weeks. Peak LT wave values come on the 5th and 17th. And the bottom values are projected around the 11th and the 23rd. I have no idea how this will pan out. The market may just dance around within the wide range that is set by the recent January high and the possible low that we get in early February.

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LT wave for January

Posted by Danny on January 2, 2018

Markets have continued to trade in “painless” fashion, just grinding higher without corrections worth talking about. Naturally this will not continue forever and it may end sooner rather than later. Here is the current Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily) 3_18_2016 - 12_29_2017

The latest all time highs came just before christmas. As long as the blue trend line stays intact there is no problem, but once it gets broken a significant correction will be highly likely. The Earl indicator (blue line) has turned down again, indicating a downturn may have started a week ago. The slower Earl2 (orange line) has been weakening for several month already. This is still not a setup that wants me to do more new buying. The risk/reward ratio is just too poor here.

After weak performance for November our LT wave for December has been close to perfect. Here is the LT wave for January:


Expected weakness until Dec 5 was right on the mark and followed by a market advance throughout the expected strong period until Dec 22. Weakness in final week came true as well. Doesn’t get much better.
For January the LT wave projects strength until around the 10th followed by weakness for the rest of the month (with some possible bounce around the 20th). Highest LT wave value comes on the 7th with the lowest coming on the 25th. If we do not see new record highs in the first 10 days of the month then the bull run may be over and the rest of January could be down sharply. We really need to watch the long term trend line (see chart above) in that case.

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Higher it goes

Posted by Danny on December 4, 2017

Markets have burst higher in recent weeks, taking most major indexes to new record highs. Does this mean the market has nowhere to go but up? Maybe. We will have a look into that question later in this article, but let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart first:

^COMP (Daily) 3_10_2016 - 12_1_2017

Instead of threatening to go down the Nasdaq is breaking out above the red channel it has been occupying most of the year. The longer term up trend remains firmly in place. If anything stocks are accelerating here. But how much longer?
Some warning signs remain in place. There are bearish divergences in the Earl (blue line) and Earl2 (orange line) that do not go away. This has been a painless advance for such a long time now. Some investors will probably panic as soon as we get a 5% drop from the highs some day. I would rather wait for that panic to do any new buying. But we may have plenty company when it comes to waiting for a >3% pullback.

Our LT wave for November did very poorly. It could hardly be any worse, actually. Markets climbed when we expected weakness and fell when the wave indicated strength. Will that continue to be the case? I have no idea. Here is the wave for December:


Weakness is projected until Dec 5, followed by a stronger period until the 22nd. The final week of the month looks weak again. This means that if we see no downside action in the next couple of days the market could just continue to march higher into xmas. And with very thin trading in the final week of the year it remains to be seen how that expected weakness will pan out.
Personally I will rather watch from the sidelines until our cycles get into gear again.

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LT wave for November

Posted by Danny on October 30, 2017

Stocks have reached new record highs. But bullish participation has started to weaken again ( see Outlook for week of October 30). A shrinking number of stocks is carrying indexes higher and that’s always something to keep an eye on. Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart before sharing the LT wave for November:

^COMP (Daily) 2_16_2016 - 10_27_2017

The Nasdaq keeps moving within a nice channel it has been occupying for most of the year. Friday’s jump has taken the Nasdaq to the upper bound, but this is not a breakout that suggests upward acceleration.
My indicators are showing red flags as well. The Earl (blue line) shows a bearish divergence, while the slower Earl2 (orange line) has peaked and turned lower. The MoM is also on a downward trajectory after peaking out near the 8-euphoric zone. While none of this presents obstacles that cannot be overcome, it is not the kind of setup that prompts me to do fresh short term buying.

Sometimes the best strategy is wait and see. This is an aging rally and there has been no pullback worth talking about for more than year. If investing was always this safe and easy then nobody would be working.

October was not a good month for our LT wave. Expected weakness early in the month did not pan out, but projected strength in the 3rd week came right on target. Markets pulled back from record highs in the final week, when the wave suggested new weakness. But that didn’t carry on and the index bounced right back in the final days. Here is the wave for November:


Weakness is expected until the 7th, with lowest LT wave values of the month coming on the 6th and 7th. If that brings a market low then a rebound should follow until the 17th or 20th. The final 10 days of November look weak.
Remember the LT wave is experimental, so do not bet the bank on it.

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LT wave for October

Posted by Danny on October 3, 2017

Markets have crept to new record highs. But is it a convincing breakout? The S&P 500 stays within its narrowing range so I would still keep my powder dry here. One or two down days could easily wipe out a full month’s gains, that’s how slow the recent advance has been. Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily) 12_30_2015 - 10_2_2017

The Nasdaq has climbed and closed above 6500 for the first time. But it has taken more than two months to get 1% above its late July highs. My indicators are unimpressed with this move. The Earl (blue line) and MoM are near the zero line and nowhere near the highs they reached in recent months, which is a clear bearish divergence. And the Earl2 (orange line) is flatlining just above the zero line, completely negating last week’s push to new record highs.

While this doesn’t rule out a further climb it is not the kind of setup that prompts me to buy or stay heavily long. Sometimes you just have to watch and wait and this is one of those times imo.

Our LT wave did a mixed job in September. Here is he wave for October:


Expected weakness until Sep 9 panned out nicely and was followed by a stronger period with a market peak around the 21st as projected by LT wave. But subsequent weakness did not materialize and stocks climbed to new highs in the final week.
For October the wave suggests weakness until the 13th and then a stronger week with a peak value near the 19th. The final week shows a drop again with an expected low near the 27th.

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LT wave for September

Posted by Danny on September 1, 2017

Markets have been jumping higher in recent days and are close to new highs again. This is rather unexpected given the current lunar red period and goes against the projected weakness per our LT wave. What to make of this? Here is the current S&P 500 chart:

^SP500 (Daily) 11_3_2015 - 8_31_2017

The crucial support at 2400 has held easily and my indicators are pointing up. This paves the way for a possible test of the 2500 level in the coming weeks. But this could also be a fake-out move before a bigger downturn. If a lower high gets printed here then it will not look good and the 2400 level may get tested again.

Our LT wave was partially successful in August. Here is the projected pattern for September:


Expected weakness in the first half of August came right on target and the low on August 10 gave us a significant down day. But weakness continued longer than expected. The projected high on August 23rd was only a weak rebound and strength also stretched longer than expected with the best days coming at the very end of the month. So it looks as if the cycle is getting delayed by a few days. I don’t know if that will continue to be the case.
For September some mild weakness is expected until around the 9th, followed by a stronger period with an LT wave peak value on the 21st. The final week of September shows renewed weakness with a bottom value on the 28th.

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LT wave for August

Posted by Danny on August 1, 2017

US markets have reached new record highs. Hurray! Or, last hurray?? S&P 500 and Nasdaq have done exactly what I expected to happen per my recent posts: Ready for 2500 and Show Time. The S&P 500 is stalling just below 2500, and Nasdaq has climbed to 6400 but seems to encounter air pockets up there. A few weeks ago I said that kind of price action would be a sign of weakness. Let’s see how that looks like in the current chart:

^SP500 (Daily) 10_16_2015 - 7_31_2017

The same drawing I posted on July 11, with the S&P now moving nicely into the projected blue target circle. That’s not the product of some magical crystal ball I have, but merely linear interpolation of the recent trends. That obvious trend will stop eventually and the big question is when and where. My Earl indicator has turned down already, and the slower Earl2 has all but negated the recent rally. That’s what I warned for and this is a reason to be very cautious at this point. It looks weak but as long as no trend lines are broken things are holding up. How much longer? I don’t know. All we can do is watch and be ready.

The LT wave did a fair job in July and here is the wave for August:


Expected weakness until around the 20th proved much more short-lived. The S&P 500 bottomed on the first expected low near the 8th and then climbed steadily into the expected highs around the 26th. Intra-day peak came on the 27th, no perfection in this world…
For August the wave suggests weakness until around the 15th, followed by an unusually strong period until the 25th. The lowest LT wave value comes on the 10th and then goes to a very high LT wave reading on the 23rd. If the S&P gets through the weak period without technical damage then a major high may be seen on 23rd (+/- 1 day). If we get a significant drop first then 23rd is more likely to become a rebound high in an ongoing decline. That are the two major scenarios I would consider at this point. As always, please remember the LT wave is experimental and will not always work perfectly.

I also want to revisit my June post: Get ready for the August eclipse. As expected, news media and astrologers are getting very excited about this event, e.g. this Newsweek article: Basically, if anything serious happens to the US or its president in the next two years then astrologers will conveniently blame it on this eclipse and take it as proof that their methods work. Question: and when was the last time nothing significant happened over a two year period?
Don’t get blinded by this eclipse, I would rather keep an eye on the 1987 chart comparison I posted. The recent 6 weeks price action has continued to be exceptionally similar. Here is a more detailed comparison chart updated for July:


History doesn’t repeat, but sometimes it rhymes. As far as direct year to year comparisons go this is as good a rhyme as you will ever see. The rates of change differ, but the important highs and lows keep matching well. At some point the rhyming will stop, but we don’t know when. An S&P surge above 2500 in August, with breakout above the blue line, would make the historic comparison even more compelling. A similar October crash, taking into account the differing rates of change, would then target 2150 (= the 2015 highs).
I never have more than 60% confidence in any scenario, including this one. But I am keeping an eye on it.

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LT wave for July

Posted by Danny on July 3, 2017

Investors’ resilience got tested again last week as stocks had some significant down days. The up trends in major indexes are not broken, but there is certainly reason to be cautious as I have been warning in my daily reversal levels posts and on Twitter. Here is the current Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily) 10_29_2015 - 6_30_2017

All indicators are pointing down now and the Nasdaq may go for a test of the 6000 level before we see any signs of a tradeable bottom. We are in a new lunar red period and how the market gets through this period will probably be quite important. If stocks can muddle through without causing damage to the longer term up trend then another rally in late July/August would become the base scenario. A move back above 6300 would tell us that rally is on.
A sustained drop below 6000 would suggest we are in a more serious decline and then 5400 would become an initial target.

Our LT wave for June did a mediocre job. Here is the expected pattern for July:


Strength in the first days of June was followed by a sideways in the expected weak period, but projected strength in the final week of the month did not materialize in a convincing way.
The wave for July projects ongoing weakness until the 20th followed by a stronger week. Lowest wave values come on the 8th and the 14th with highest values expected around the 26th.

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LT wave for June

Posted by Danny on June 2, 2017

Markets continue to record new highs and the S&P 500 seems to have broken the resistance near the 2400 level. I didn’t see too many “sell in May” tweets, probably because that strategy failed last year, but that doesn’t tell us anything for this year. I would just ride this rally as long as it lasts, which is what we are doing with our reversal levels strategy.
How long? Well, the bullish scenario I updated last December is still on track: Dow 32000 revisited. It is feasible for the S&P 500 to reach 2500-600 by summer and then a final autumn surge could follow suit.
At the same time I want to keep an eye on the 88 year crash cycle I explored in this post from 2013: The long term crash cycle. This pointed to 2017 as the next candidate for a mania and crash. We will find out soon.

Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq before giving the LT wave chart for June:

^COMP (Daily) 8_18_2015 - 6_1_2017

Indicators are pointing up again after the brief pullback in mid May. We keep seeing a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. It is hard to fight a market like this. Short sellers keep getting punished and once they give up completely we may get the kind of final surge that pulls in the last bulls. Keep your eyes open and your ears closed.

Our LT wave had a decent month in May, here is the wave for June:


Expected strength until the 9th saw the S&P reach 2400 for the first time. The weaker period until the 23rd produced a significant dip followed by a strong final week.
For June the wave projects continued strength until the 5th and then a weaker period until the 20th. The final week is expected to be strong again, a pattern we have been seeing for several months.

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LT wave for May

Posted by Danny on May 1, 2017

The Nasdaq has climbed to new record highs while the S&P 500 keeps sitting just below its March 1 highs. The Nasdaq gained 243 points in the recent lunar green period, making it the best green period since October. Let’s take a look at the current Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily) 9_22_2015 - 4_28_2017

The sideways pause that started in March has clearly ended, allowing this index to break out above 6000. The Earl2 (orange line) has made a nice bottom and all 3 indicators are pointing up at the moment. That’s a bullish setup, but the faster Earl (blue line) and the MoM have reached fairly high levels already. I think we can get higher highs in the coming days, which would allow the S&P 500 to break above 2400. But with a new lunar red period getting started I think it will be followed by a bit of a pullback.

The LT wave had another good month in April. Here is the wave for May:


Projected strength in the first week of April only resulted in a sideways and was followed by a pullback in the expected weak period. The final week was stronger again, nicely in line with LT wave. Not bad.
For May we see a very similar pattern. A positive bias appears to continue until around the 9th and then we get a weaker period until the 23rd. The final week of the month is stronger again. The highest LT wave value will come on the 18th, in the midst of the weaker period. The lowest LT wave values come around 13-15, which contains a weekend. Another low value comes on the 21st, which is a Sunday. When markets are closed on the expected weak days then the weakness may or may not show up on the subsequent Monday. This could make this month more difficult to read.

For new readers, please remember that LT wave is experimental and after two very good months it is probably time for a miss. Always stay skeptical and do not drop skepticism because a method or indicator has had a few good months…

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