Posted by Danny on November 1, 2018
The LT for October did a mixed job. The expected strong period in the second week did not pan out at all and the market just went into a steady decline. The projected weakness in the second half of the month was obviously correct. For November the expected pattern looks like this:
A positive bias is expected to continue until around the 11th with a noticeable peak value on the 9th. Then there is a weaker period until the 26th followed by more positive values in the final days of the month.
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Posted by Danny on October 6, 2018
A few days later than normal, but here is the LT wave chart for October.
The wave did ok for September with the cycle gradually coming back to normal.
Expected weakness in the first week did happen and was followed by a stronger period. The strong period did last a bit longer than projected.
For October we see the weak period stretching until the 5th. The market has dropped indeed. Next week a stronger period is projected, but whether this will take stocks back up to the recent highs is a big question. I think not, but we will see. The second half of October is also weak, so I would be very careful.
Good luck.
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Posted by Danny on September 3, 2018
LT wave had another poor month in August.
The market moved almost completely opposite to the expected pattern throughout the month. Whether that will continue or not is impossible to say. All we can do is be extra cautious and wait for normal situation to return.
Here is the LT wave chart for September:
Weakness is expected to continue until Sep 7th. Since this weak period started on August 18 and has seen only rising prices, we could see a sudden late pullback or a simple continuation of those rising prices. There is no way to tell. A strong period is then projected until the 14th. If no pullback is seen before the 7th then we could get a market top in this strong period.
The final weeks of the month look weak again.
Good luck.
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Posted by Danny on August 2, 2018
Our LT wave had a mediocre month in July.
Expected weakness until the 10th did not pan out, with the market breaking out to the upside on the 6th already. Expected strong period until the 22nd did work out but extended well beyond that date with S&P 500 peaking on the 25th before projected weakness started kicking in. Not a terrible month, but the timing was off by several days.
Here is the LT wave chart for August:
The wave projects ongoing weakness until around the 7th followed by a stronger period until the 17th. The second half of August is expected to be weaker again. The patter is quite similar to the LT wave for July.
Highest daily value comes on the 12th, with lowest values on the 5th and 20th. If the mid-month strong period does not produces a new high (> July high) then the subsequent weak period could be more damaging than the LT wave suggests. Weak periods have mainly given us sideways action in the recent month. That would probably change if we get a lower high and more bearish sentiment.
Good luck.
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Posted by Danny on July 3, 2018
Markets have been sputtering in recent months, but long term up trends stay intact. The Nasdaq has already climbed to new all time highs and is closing in on the 8000 mark.
Here is the current chart:
As long as the trend line is not broken it is too early to declare a top in this market. The Earl indicator (blue line) is turning back up after the recent week’s pullback. This suggests a new upswing could be starting. But the slower Earl2 (orange line) is still going down, which means new highs may have to wait at least a little bit. The MoM indicator is also trying to paint a bottom, so the setup suggests a rally attempt in the next few weeks.
Our LT wave did a reasonable job in June. Suggested weakness in the first week did not pan out, but the month’s high came very close to the 14th and the final weeks were weak again, as expected. Here is the LT wave for July:
The projected pattern is quite similar to last month. Expected weakness until around the 10th, followed by a stronger week and renewed weakness after the 22nd.
Lowest LT wave values come on the 9th and the 30th. The highest value is expected on the 17th.
Good luck.
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: LT wave, Nasdaq | 5 Comments »
Posted by Danny on June 1, 2018
US stock markets are trading in a large sideways pattern since February. But lunar cycles keep doing well in this environment.
The LT wave did a good job in May. Lows of the month came in the first week as expected and a stronger period followed. Projected weakness in the final days of May came right on target. It doesn’t get much better.
Here is the LT wave for June:
June is projected to start with weakness until the 11th with lowest LT wave value coming on 11th. Then we should see a stronger period until the 22nd. The highest LT wave value comes on the 14th. The final week of June is considerably weaker again.
In this type chart we pay most attention to the general direction bias, not so much the absolute levels. For example on June 14th the LT wave peaks above the LT wave highs of May, but that doesn’t mean the market will be higher. If stocks decline considerably in the weak period until the 11th then I would expect only a rebound that stops short of the May highs. If on the other hand the market holds up very well until June 11th then there is a very good chance stocks will break out above the May highs in the subsequent strong period.
Then there are always months when the expected pattern doesn’t show up at all. So, use the LT wave with a healthy skepticism. Last month’s result doesn’t guarantee anything for the next month.
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Posted by Danny on May 1, 2018
Stocks have largely gone sideways in the recent month. It remains unclear whether the next major move will be up or down.
Here is the current S&P 500 chart:
Technically the Earl (blue line) peaked out in mid April and has come down to the neutral line. No signs of a bottom.
The slower Earl2 is still climbing, but appears to be flattening out near the neutral line. And the MoM indicator is also in the neutral zone. None of this offers us any clues about the next move, so all we can do is wait.
It’s time for our LT wave for May:
The wave did pretty well in April. Expected weakness until the 12th saw the index hover near support just below 2600. The more positive bias for the remainder of April saw the market test the 2700 levels as we expected. Volatility did clearly drop, so that was a good call too.
For May the wave projects another weak period until around the 11th. This is to be followed by a strong period until the 28th. The final days of May show weak again.
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Posted by Danny on April 2, 2018
Markets are going through another significant downswing. Volatility has been high compared to what traders got used to in 2017. This was of course inevitable, and it is something I was watching as an indication that we are getting into the late stages of a multi-year bull market. See: Updated long term scenarios and charts.
So, what’s next? Here is the current Nasdaq chart:
The long term blue trend line in Nasdaq is clearly broken. But the Nasdaq is still in a higher highs and higher lows sequence, so it’s too early to declare the end of the bull market in this index.
The Earl (blue line) is turning up from a major low. The slower Earl2 (orange line) is still dropping fast, but well into bottom territory. The MoM indicator has fallen into the blue pessimistic zone (<-5), where major buying opportunities are usually found. Once the MoM turns back up we will have a nice setup to do some cautious buying here.
If major indexes drop below their February lows, then more bearish scenarios would gain traction. That wouldn't rule out new record highs later on, but it would probably push them further back in time.
Our lunar cycle has been on fire so far this year, so that's something to keep an eye on as well. A new green period starts later this week, so it will be interesting to see if it keeps rolling on: lunar cycle tracking page.
Our LT wave did a decent job for March. The peak early in the month came with several days delay, but the subsequent weak period ended on target at March 26.
Here is the LT wave for April:
There are no outstanding peaks or lows in the projection for April, which suggests volatility will drop. We see a period of mild weakness until the 12th, followed by a more positive bias for the remainder of April. The lowest LT wave value comes on the 4th, and there is no daily peak value worth talking about.
If the wave holds up then I would look for a low in the first trading days of this week, but probably not a major new low. And then a very gradual recovery that could lift the S&P 500 back to near the 2700 area.
Let’s see.
Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: LT wave | 2 Comments »
Posted by Danny on March 2, 2018
Just a quick message today to get out the LT wave.
Our wave did OK in February.
The month was as volatile as the wave projected and the major swings lined up with the wave pattern more often than not. Expected strength around the 5th did not show up, other than one good rebound day on Feb6, and the market declined straight into the expected bottom value on the 11th (which was a Sunday). This was followed by a strong week right into our expected peak on the 17th. Weakness in the 3rd week came in the form of sideways churning and then we got a few good up days in the last week. The final days of February did not show expected strength and this means March is starting on a weak foot.
Here is the LT wave for March:
A strong period is projected until around the 5th and followed by a prolonged weak period until the 26th. The final week of March looks better.
Peak LT wave values come on the 3rd and the 28th. The lowest value of March comes on the 12th.
Good luck.
Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: LT wave | 2 Comments »
LT wave for December
Posted by Danny on December 3, 2018
The LT wave was close to perfect for November. S&P 500 peaked on the 8th and bottomed on the 23rd, very close to the high and low indicated in the LT wave chart.
For December the wave projects a very similar pattern:
Strength in the first week (with a peak value on the 6th) is again followed by mid-month weakness that ends at an important low on the 21st. The final week of the year shows stronger again, but that will probably come in thin holiday trading so I wouldn’t bet the bank on it.
Don’t get carried away by LT wave doing very well for a month or two. There will always be months when it is doing a lukewarm job, if not worse.
Good luck.
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