LunaticTrader

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Posts Tagged ‘LT wave’

LT wave for Oct 2021

Posted by Danny on October 1, 2021

The LT wave did very well for September.

Expected strength early in the month was rather underwhelming and hardly kept the S&P 500 above 4500. The final 3 weeks, when weakness was projected, produced one of the biggest selloffs so far this year, dropping over 200 points and ending the month near the lows. How does it continue?

Here is the LT wave chart for October:

ltwaveoct2021

 

Perhaps surprisingly, the wave projects a strong period from the get go, with a very high peak value on the 6th, but strength could stretch out until around the 17th. The market may use this to recover some (or all?) of the September losses, but how high such a rebound might go can not be foretold from the LT wave. Then a weaker period until the 27th, with a couple of stronger days to finish the month.

It will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

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LT wave for Sep 2021

Posted by Danny on August 30, 2021

It was a rather average month for the LT wave in August.

Expected weakness in the first 4 days gave us sideways action, which was followed by a nice rally in the subsequent strong period. A peak was reached on the 16th, when the strong period ended. Then the market pulled back sharply in the beginning of the next weak period, but rebounded much more sharply and quickly than our LT wave projected. New record highs were reached before the end of the month already, so the sustained weak period did not pan out.

Here is the LT wave chart for September:

ltwavesep2021

The beginning of September shows continued strength until around the 10th, with a high peak value on the 8th. The final 3 weeks look significantly weaker, with the possibility of a few stronger days around the 17th.

Normal caveats apply: don’t bet the farm on LT waves.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 2 Comments »

LT wave for August 2021

Posted by Danny on August 3, 2021

It wasn’t a good month for the LT wave in July. Expected weakness until the 7th did not pan out. Stocks kept rising and there was just a pretty sharp drop around the 19th, instantly followed by a further climb. The expected weakness in the final days only produced sideways action. How does it continue?

For August the LT wave looks like this:

ltwaveaug2021

Weakness until the 4th, followed by a strong week until around the 15th. The second half of the months looks significantly weaker.

The usual caveats apply. Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 2 Comments »

LT wave for July 2021

Posted by Danny on July 2, 2021

It was a weird month for the LT wave price projection. Expected weakness in the 1st week came on target, but was mild. As projected it was followed by a stronger week that took the index to new records. The market then dipped as one would expect from the chart, but the final 10 days of the month where everything but weak, and kept grinding up to new record highs day after day. A very surprising twist in the plot. How does it continue?

For July the LT wave looks like this:

ltwavejul2021

The current weak period, which hasn’t produced any weakness so far, is set to continue and intensify until the 7th. Will we get a belated drop that wipes out all gains of the recent week? Or will the rally just continue straight into the next stronger period, which comes in the middle of the month and may stretch until the 27th? I have no idea.

The final days of July is when some weakness appears again.

The usual caveats apply. Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for June 2021

Posted by Danny on June 1, 2021

The month of May wasn’t easy to navigate, and the LT wave did ok, not perfect of course. Expected early month weakness until the 13th gave us a drop to 4060. The subsequent stronger period until the 22nd saw the market recover most of those losses. But projected weakness in the final week did not pan out. The market just stayed flat near the 4200 level.

For June the LT wave continues like this:

ltwavejun2021

Weakness is supposed to continue until the 6th or 7th. Then a stronger week is projected until the 17nd.

The final 10 days of the month are again weaker, but coming back to neutral on the final days.

The usual caveats apply. Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for May 2021

Posted by Danny on May 3, 2021

We had a very interesting April with steadily rising stocks setting new records. The expected mild weakness in the first days didn’t really materialise, but the stronger final 3 weeks panned out beautifully. A nearly 5% rise for the S&P 500 within a month is something you don’t see very often.

For May the LT wave continues like this:

Weakness in the first half of the month, which could last until around the 13th. Then a stronger week until the 22nd.

Some sharper decline could come in the final week, with the blue values dropping to unusually low levels in the days around the 28th. It will be interesting to see what comes out of that.

The usual caveats apply. Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for March 2021

Posted by Danny on March 1, 2021

The wave had an excellent month in February. Expected strength in the first half of the month was right on target and lifted the S&P 500 to a new record high on the 16th. Then the projected weakness in the 3rd week came in, causing a pullback. Then there was another rally attempt in the final days, but it panned out weaker than expected.

Here is the LT wave for March:

There is initial strength in the first days, quickly followed by weakness until the 8th. Then the pattern shows a strong week in the middle of the month, which ends around the 16th. The final weeks of March are projected to be weak.

Good luck. And as always, the normal caveats apply. This LT wave is completely experimental and a good fit in the prior month doesn’t guarantee anything for the next one. Use common sense if you try to use it in your own trading.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

LT wave for February 2021

Posted by Danny on February 1, 2021

The wave had a rather poor month in January. While we did get a see saw type of market, the pattern didn’t match the projected wave very well. No perfection in this world ;-)

Here is the LT wave for February:

ltwavefeb2021

There is projected strength in the first half of the month, with the possible exception of a few weaker days on or around the 8th. After the 15th there is significant weakening with some really low values on the 19th and 20th. The final week looks stronger, so if there is some kind of bottom around the 20th then a rebound is in the cards there.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 5 Comments »

LT wave for January 2021

Posted by Danny on January 4, 2021

The LT wave did a good job in December. The projected strong start of the month took the index above 3700 for the first time. The expected subsequent weakness until the 26th gave us a sideways choppy market. The stronger final days came right on target as well and allowed the S&P 500 to close the year at new all time record highs.

Here is the projected price pattern for January:

Strength until the 4th, followed by weakness until the 10th. Then another strong week is projected until around the 18th. The see saw continues with weakness until the 25th and the final days look strong again.

I am curious if and how this pattern will hold up, but it is what it is. As always, don’t bet the farm on it, this is an experimental method that doesn’t use any price or market input.

Good luck.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

LT wave for December 2020

Posted by Danny on December 2, 2020

The LT wave was rather average in November. Expected mid-month strength started several days earlier than the wave indicated. The weakness in the final week was very mild, only producing a sideways.

Here is the projected price pattern for December:

The first 10 days look strong and are followed by a weaker period until around the 26th. The final days are expected to be stronger again.

Good luck and up to a happy 2021.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

 
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