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Posts Tagged ‘LT wave’

LT wave for March

Posted by Danny on March 1, 2016

The Nasdaq ended the recent lunar red period with a massive 323 point gain, one of the strongest red periods ever. In the recent months the market has been going counter to what we normally see in green and red periods, but somehow our LT wave keeps doing very well. This is very interesting as there must be some reason for this. I may be able to use the current observations to figure out in advance when the red and green periods are more likely to have a “cycle inversion”. I will keep you posted on the progress, if any.

Let’s have our weekly look at the S&P 500 chart:

^SP500 (Daily)  5_21_2014 - 2_29_2016

The S&P has reached its highest level since early January. Technically the slower Earl2 (orange line) is still going up with further room to rise. But the faster Earl (blue line) has peaked and is starting to go down. This suggests the market needs a bit of pullback or pause at this point, but there are good chances it will resume higher after the Earl bottoms out again. The MoM indicator is still pointing up as well, but appears to flatten out. A new lunar green period is now underway, but the setup suggests that this may become another weak green period. In best case scenario the S&P may march on to just below 2000, but more likely is a sideways period.

We also have the new LT wave chart for March:

ltwaveMarch2016

The wave did very well in February, correctly indicating the weakness in the first half of the month, followed by a much more positive second half.
For March the wave suggests weakness in the first week, followed by strength until the 25th. The final days of the month look weaker again. The lowest LT wave values come on the 6th and the 28th. The highest LT wave value will be on the 24th.
For new readers, please remember that this LT wave is experimental and I cannot guarantee anything.

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »

LT wave for February

Posted by Danny on February 1, 2016

Stocks have continued their rebound and suddenly it looks as if the world is not falling apart after all. Last week we have warned that the bottom may be in and so far that call doesn’t look bad. We are in a new lunar green period again, and in the previous period the lunar cycle finally got back on its feet after a string of failed periods. If this is the start of some cyclical normalcy then we can look forward to further gains. Here is the current S&P 500 chart:

^SP500 (Daily)  5_16_2014 - 1_29_2016

Major support levels were seriously tested, and they bent but didn’t break. The slower Earl2 (orange line) has finally turned up from a major low. All three my indicators are now pointing in the same direction: up. We may get a few more air pockets, but it looks pretty good. I think this market can continue towards 1980, where I would expect first major overhead resistance. Then we will see what happens next.
The obvious line in sand is now given by the January 20 lows. If that gets broken to the downside the chart would look really ugly and then another wave of panic selling would become hard to avoid. But that’s not the base scenario for now. I think there is a good chance that January 20th will stand as the low for the year.

The LT wave for January did an almost perfect job. Weakness until the 21st, followed by strength in the final week. The market bottomed on the 20th, just one day after the lowest LT wave value for the month. Highest value of the month was the 29th, which gave us the strongest up day. It doesn’t get much better than that. Here is the LT wave pattern for February:

ltwaveFebruary2016

The wave suggests some weakness early in the month, with the lowest LT wave value coming on the 5th. After that it improves steadily with the second half of the month being mostly positive. Highest LT wave values are on the 8th, 18th and 26th. Let’s see how it goes. Bear in mind that this LT wave is experimental, so don’t be too confident that it will always work as well as it did last month. There is no perfection in this world, only perfect imperfection.

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

LT wave for January

Posted by Danny on December 28, 2015

The last trading days of the year are showing a light upward bias, as they typically do. It is usually hard to read something in days with very light trading, so we will probably have to wait for next week to see where stocks are going next. Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart (click image to enlarge it):

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq is back above 5000. The Earl and MoM indicators are going up, but the slower Earl2 is still going down. Major support just below 5000 (dashed grey line) has been tested three times in the recent months and has held nicely so far. As long as that remains the case the setup favors further gains once the Earl2 turns up, with good potential for new all time highs in the first months of 2016. A drop below the December lows would invalidate the bullish scenario, and if that happens the outlook would worsen quickly.

The LT wave for December was far from perfect but it correctly indicated the weakness in the middle of the month. For January the LT wave shows a similar pattern (click image to enlarge it):

LT wave

The first days of the month look strong, but then the LT wave suggests downside pressure until the 21st, followed by a positive tendency in the final week. The highest reading of the month comes on the 2nd and the 29th, with the lowest LT wave reading on the 19th.

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

LT wave for December

Posted by Danny on November 30, 2015

US stocks barely moved last week. I had suggested a sideways period is starting and that’s what we are seeing. How much longer will it continue? Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart (click image to enlarge it):

Nasdaq

The market is hesitating just below the overhead resistance of this summer’s all time highs. The Earl2 indicator ( orange line) keeps coming down from a major high and is not in bottom territory yet. This suggests we will have to be more patient. The faster Earl (blue line) and MoM are more or less neutral at the moment and still going up. Even though we are starting a new lunar green period I think it will be difficult for the Nasdaq to push much higher already. So further sideways is my base scenario for the coming weeks.

December is coming up, so here we have the LT wave chart for next month (click image to enlarge it):

LT wave

The wave did not work so well in November. The expected positive bias in the first half of the month failed completely. The low in the middle of the month was not too far off, and the expected neutral period in the final week did come true. It’s a good reminder that we shouldn’t expect perfection with the LT wave.
For December the LT wave stays rather neutral until the 12th, with a slightly positive bias. Then there is a weak period until the 24th. LT wave expects Santa to come in the final week of the year, when the bias goes positive with the highest value coming on the 31st. The lowest LT wave value is on the 20th. If that produces a low in the market then it will be good idea to do so some buying.

Good luck and happy holidays.
Danny

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LT wave for November

Posted by Danny on November 2, 2015

The market was about flat last week and the lunar red period ended with a solid 167 point gain on the Nasdaq. It is the first time this year that stocks gain during a red period, which suggests underlying strength in the market. Can the market go even higher in the new green period? Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq (click image to enlarge it):

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq has come a long way since the late September lows. A 12% climb in 4 weeks has made most indicators look very overbought. The fast Earl (blue line) is turning down again while the slower Earl2 (orange line) is getting very high. The MoM indicator is going into the very optimistic +8 zone, which has usually been consistent with short term peaks (see green arrows). The situation asks for some consolidation period, but will we get it? The market may just stretch itself for another couple of weeks and try to get back to its summer highs without looking back. I don’t know at this point, neither a further climb nor a pullback would surprise me.

The LT wave chart for November doesn’t rule out further gains either (click image to enlarge it):

LT wave

For October the LT wave correctly indicated strength in the first half of the month, but expected weakness in the second half did not pan out. The drops in the LT wave coincided with very mild pullbacks, but the overall up trend remained intact. It will be interesting to see whether this continues into November. The LT wave projects some weakness in the first days followed by a positive bias until the 13th. The rest of the months is rather neutral. Lowest values of the month come on the 4th, the 19th and the 26th, the highest LT wave reading is on the 11th.

Good luck,
Danny

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

LT wave for October

Posted by Danny on October 5, 2015

Markets declined into the end of the lunar red period and have started to rebound with the new green period. The August lows have held, so this could mark the end of the recent correction. Let’s have a look at the Nasdaq chart (click image to enlarge it):

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq appears ready to climb towards the 5000 level again. The Earl indicator (blue line) has just turned up from another major low, while the slower Earl2 (orange line) has been marking time to let the market catch up. This is a favorable setup. But a drop below the late September lows would invalidate this scenario.

Several readers have been asking for the LT wave chart form October. I was away from main computer, so couldn’t get it out in time. But better late than never, so here we go (click image to enlarge it):

LT wave

The wave did very well in September with the highs and lows coming very close to the expected dates. For October the LT wave shows a positive bias until the 15th with weakness in the second half of the month. Highest values are on the 4th and the 13th. The lowest values come on the 21st and 29th.
Bear in mind that the LT wave is trend neutral, it is the pattern that matters.

Click here for a copy of the weekly reversal for over 1500 stocks and ETF.

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

LT wave for September

Posted by Danny on August 31, 2015

There was panic selling in the markets before stocks recovered towards the end of the week. We already warned weeks ago that things could turn ugly quickly and that’s exactly what we got. It’s too early to tell whether the lows are in or not, but we can have a look at the new situation in the S&P 500 (click image to enlarge it):

S&P 500

The lunar red period will end this week. The Earl indicator (blue line) has turned up from a significant bottom already. The MoM is turning up as well. The slower Earl2 (orange) line is still going down, but entering deep bottom territory. This means we could easily see a further rebound, and I think the old support levels near 2050 on the S&P will now become strong overhead resistance if the market gets there. Plenty of investors who bought stocks in the recent 6 months, and were shocked by this sudden drop, will be looking for a chance to get out near break even.
So, I wouldn’t look for an easy climb back, like we saw in October last year. I expect some more serious down days and continuing nervousness. How well the market keeps recovering (if at all) in the next lunar green period will give us new clues going forward. The weekly reversal levels are still fully bearish for most stocks and indexes, so patience is probably a good idea.

Here is the LT wave chart for September (click image to enlarge it):

LT wave

The wave did well again in August. The month started weak as expected, and projected strength into the 17th barely managed to keep the market flat. The ensuing crash bottomed on the 25th, which was the LT wave low value for the month.
For September the LT wave stays close to neutral for the first 8 days, with a possible dip near the 9th. Then a strong period until the 21st followed by weakness in the final week. The highest LT wave value comes on the 15th, with low values coming on the 9th and the 28th.
As always, bear in mind this LT wave is experimental and will not always work as well as it has done in recent months. So, don’t bet the bank on it.

Danny

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »

The long sideways

Posted by Danny on August 3, 2015

Stocks had a fairly good week. The lunar red period is ending today, so this could be a good base to build on. The S&P 500 stays in a long sideways range that started in February. It is unusual for a major index to keep hovering within a narrow 5% range for so long. When the breakout comes, as it eventually must, it is likely to produce a big move. Here is the current chart (click image to enlarge it):

S&P 500

Technically the Earl (blue line) and MoM indicators are turning up from shallow bottoms. The slower Earl2 (orange line) is rather neutral but still going up from its early July lows. This looks pretty good as long as last Monday’s lows are not being revisited. Some people will see a reverse head and shoulders pattern in the price action since early June, and that would lead to more buying if the S&P can break above the 2140 resistance level. A move to 2300 is in the cards if that happens, because it would be a breakaway from the long sideways pattern. Long sideways patterns have slightly better odds of resolving in the direction of the long term trend, which is still up. But they can break down too, and in that case we would probably see a violent downturn. I am quite sure that some options traders are playing this with a strangle, in order to benefit from a big move either way.

It’s a new month, so time to get out the LT wave chart for August (click image to enlarge it):

LT wave

The LT wave had another good month in July as the expected strong period in the middle of the month panned out beautifully. For August a similar pattern is projected. After an hesitating start a strong period is expected until the 21st, followed by weakness in the final week. The highest value of the month comes on the 17th with the lowest LT wave value on the 25th. As always, bear in mind that this LT wave is experimental and past performance guarantees nothing.
I am working to add the LT wave into the Lunatic Trader program, which will give you the LT wave charts until the year 2100. So, stay tuned if you like these charts.

Danny

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

LT wave for July

Posted by Danny on June 29, 2015

Markets have stayed nervous, and for good reason. The weekend developments in Greece are causing big moves in world markets today. Will this push the US markets out of the sideways range they have occupied for months? Maybe. Let’s have a look at the situation in the Nasdaq (click image to enlarge it):

Nasdaq

The market turned down in the middle of the week and is about to test the support near 5000 again. A drop below this level would violate the weak up trend that is in place since the start of the year. A drop to 4800 becomes likely in that case. We remain in a lunar red period, so a further drop is certainly not out of the question.
Technically we still have a very uncertain and mixed picture. The Earl (blue line) and the MoM indicator are going down, but the slower Earl2 has quietly turned up from another shallow bottom. That doesn’t help us much. As I have been pointing out in my weekly outlook for months, we have to remain cautious until a clear direction emerges.

The month is not over yet, but some people are asking for the next LT wave already. By the middle of June a reader wrote me to tell how terrible the LT wave was doing. But now a few weeks later it doesn’t look that bad at all. People just shouldn’t expect perfection. The LT wave doesn’t work all the time, but it seems to work more often than not. Here is the LT wave for July, also showing how it did for June (click image to enlarge it):

LT wave

Last month we called for a weak start with a really strong period starting around the 15th and renewed weakness in the final days of the month. That is exactly what we got.
For July the LT wave projects continued weakness until the 4th, followed by a strong period that stretches until the 24th. The final week of July looks weaker again.

Danny

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LT wave for June

Posted by Danny on June 1, 2015

US markets keep going sideways. Since early April the S&P 500 has been hovering within a narrow 70 point range, or a little over 3%. That is very unusual. The Nasdaq is still hesitating just below its all time record highs. Here is the current chart (click image to enlarge it):

Nasdaq

We are in a lunar red period and stocks have come under some mild pressure. The Earl indicator (blue line) is pointing down, while the slower Earl2 (orange line) is tentatively going up. The stalemate continues and perhaps it will take a new record high on the Nasdaq to end this sideways saga. The old high still stands at 5132.52, dating back to March 10, 2000.
Months of sideways action has probably put a lot of investors in rather neutral mode, and that sets the stage for a significant trending move once the market makes up its mind.

We are starting a new month, so here is the LT wave chart for June (click image to enlarge it):

LT wave

The LT wave for May did quite well again. The low and the high for the month matched the expected pattern beautifully.
For June the wave projects another weak start, with a really strong period starting around the 15th. The final days of the month could show renewed weakness. Lowest values come on the 4th and on the 30th, and the highest LT wave reading will come on the 18th. Let me remind again that this LT wave is experimental and will not always work as well as it has done in recent months.

Good luck,
Danny

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »

 
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