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Posts Tagged ‘Nikkei’

Key reversal levels for week of May 19, 2014

Posted by Danny on May 18, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* No changes in our weekly key reversal levels for major stock indexes.

* On the daily level we have some flip-flopping going on. Nasdaq and S&P 500 have joined the Nikkei by going into bearish mode with downward momentum (MoM). The DAX and FTSE100 remain in bullish mode, but also with downward MoM.

* In other world markets we have a stronger picture with most emerging markets in ongoing bull market.

* Bonds (TLT) continue to rally and have come within a few nickels of our Top1 target at 114.60. The Top2 target is at 115.70, so I expect some serious resistance just above the current levels. I you bought bonds when they turned bullish 16 weeks ago, I would look to take some profits off the table.

* Gold holds just above its weekly key level and has entered rally mode on the daily level, but without much conviction so far. Its next major move also depends on which way the $EURUSD goes (see below). This chart shows why a big move is in the making for gold.

* The Euro has closed below its weekly key level and is now bearish on the weekly level. This is a major change after 41 weeks of bullish status. If the new trend continues we can start eyeing the Bottom targets at 1.3390 and 1.2870, and it would probably push gold prices down as well. If the Euro recovers swiftly and gets back above 1.3844 (weekly close) then the odds reverse.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 24 stocks are bullish this week, unchanged from last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,090.59 3,985.90 -1.61 71 32.42
S&P 500 1,877.86 1,804.13 2.98 76 32.59
Nikkei 14,096.59 14,887.69 -2.27 9 -1.11
FTSE 100 6,855.80 6,632.81 1.46 2 0.49
DAX 9,629.10 9,186.92 1.23 7 0.07
Bonds (TLT) 113.54 107.48 5.09 16 6.42
Gold (spot) 1,293.25 1,280.14 -0.35 13 -1.89
$EURUSD 1.3693 1.3844 0.98 0 0.00
Oil (CL) 101.58 98.58 0.89 13 1.46

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

5/16/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,090.59 4,129.14 -0.50 1 0.50 7
S&P 500 1,877.86 1,885.74 1.16 1 0.36 3
Nikkei 14,096.59 14,416.26 -1.23 25 -2.35 27
FTSE 100 6,855.80 6,754.43 5.28 17 2.60 2
DAX 9,629.10 9,522.46 3.62 17 0.28 18
Bonds (TLT) 113.54 111.20 3.98 28 4.38 1
Gold (spot) 1,293.25 1,287.30 -0.09 2 -0.95 5
$EURUSD 1.3693 1.3821 -4.70 5 -0.39 11
Oil (CL) 101.58 100.39 1.45 3 -0.32 5

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3742
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 114.60 115.70* 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 109.80 94.60 91.85

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of May 12, 2014

Posted by Danny on May 11, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* Little change in our weekly key levels for major stock indexes. For Nikkei we have MoM turning down, which indicates a continuation of bearish mode, now in its 8th week.

* On the daily level the Nasdaq and Nikkei remain in bearish mode, while the DAX is back to fully bullish. The FTSE100 is once again stagnating near its Top1 target at 6800.

* In other world markets Hong Kong is turning bearish on the weekly level.

* Gold tried to go into rally mode, but quickly dropped back and ended the week barely above its weekly key reversal level. A weekly close below $1280.53 would turn this market fully bearish again.

* The Euro also tried to break out to the upside and was pushed back immediately, ending the week just above its key reversal level. As we have been telling for weeks, the next major move of the Euro will also decide the next move in several other markets like gold. So, we keep watching.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 24 stocks are bullish this week, up from 23 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,071.87 3,983.33 -1.48 70 31.81
S&P 500 1,878.48 1,800.68 2.82 75 32.63
Nikkei 14,199.59 14,933.43 -2.21 8 -0.38
FTSE 100 6,814.60 6,604.04 0.61 1 -0.11
DAX 9,581.45 9,163.70 0.79 6 -0.42
Bonds (TLT) 111.24 107.16 4.73 15 4.27
Gold (spot) 1,288.30 1,280.53 0.01 12 -2.27
$EURUSD 1.3759 1.3693 1.52 41 3.59
Oil (CL) 99.99 98.43 1.20 12 -0.13

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

5/9/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,071.87 4,135.91 -1.29 33 -4.25 7
S&P 500 1,878.48 1,864.56 1.11 16 0.90 2
Nikkei 14,199.59 14,464.57 -1.83 20 -1.64 15
FTSE 100 6,814.60 6,706.09 6.23 12 1.99 18
DAX 9,581.45 9,433.41 1.59 12 -0.22 17
Bonds (TLT) 111.24 110.69 3.91 23 2.27 2
Gold (spot) 1,288.30 1,306.39 -0.25 2 -0.12 7
$EURUSD 1.3759 1.3882 1.59 0 0.00 35
Oil (CL) 99.99 101.45 -2.85 10 -0.50 8

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3742
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.60 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 109.80 94.60 * 91.85

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of May 5, 2014

Posted by Danny on May 4, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* Major stock markets have put in a strong week. The FTSE100 has broken above its weekly key reversal level and is now bullish again. This leaves Nikkei as the only major market that is still bearish on the weekly level. Meanwhile weekly MoM is turning up for S&P 500 and DAX. The overall picture has improved significantly from a few weeks ago. But we need to see follow through in the coming weeks.

* On the daily level momentum (MoM) remains to the upside for all covered indexes, with FTSE100 standing out as the strongest market for the moment. The UK market is once again testing its Top1 target at 6800. Maybe it can break out this time and then we can set sights on the Top2 target at 7250.

* In other world markets we have Mexico turning bullish, while Vietnam is going bearish on the weekly level.

* Bonds(TLT) have found a second breath and are pushing above their Top1 target at 111.80. That means we can start looking for the Top2 target at 114.60. Our system has remained bullish on bonds for 14 weeks and is now proven right again with this push to new highs for the year.

* Gold appeared to breaking down but made a nice comeback on Friday. This has kept it above its weekly key level, and on the daily level MoM is turning up. This is promising, but gold still needs a daily close above $1307.29 to leave the recent correction behind.

* The Euro remains undecided near the 1.38 level. We may not see any significant move until the EU elections by the end of May. I will be suprised if the Euro still trades at 1.38 by the end of June.

* Oil remains weak, but as long as it stays above its weekly key level at $98.38 it is only a pause or correction in an ongoing bull market.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week, ubchanged from 23 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,123.90 3,981.47 -1.07 69 33.50
S&P 500 1,881.14 1,797.36 2.71 74 32.82
Nikkei 14,457.51 14,984.42 -2.18 7 1.43
FTSE 100 6,822.40 6,578.32 -0.15 0 0.00
DAX 9,556.02 9,149.23 0.60 5 -0.68
Bonds (TLT) 112.71 106.82 4.74 14 5.64
Gold (spot) 1,299.24 1,280.82 0.46 11 -1.44
$EURUSD 1.3871 1.3685 1.64 40 4.43
Oil (CL) 99.76 98.38 1.73 11 -0.36

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

2/05/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,123.90 4,158.85 -0.04 28 -3.03 8
S&P 500 1,881.14 1,862.82 2.86 11 1.04 1
Nikkei 14,457.51 14,535.23 -0.05 17 0.15 16
FTSE 100 6,822.40 6,660.31 6.04 8 2.10 1
DAX 9,556.02 9,409.27 2.08 7 -0.48 1
Bonds (TLT) 112.71 110.18 3.57 18 3.38 1
Gold (spot) 1,299.24 1,307.29 -1.29 12 -0.25 24
$EURUSD 1.3871 1.3794 1.50 17 0.12 5
Oil (CL) 99.76 101.89 -3.98 5 -0.73 7

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3742
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.60 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 109.80 91.85 86.00

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of April 28, 2014

Posted by Danny on April 27, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* Major stock markets continue to show a rather mixed picture in the weekly key reversal levels. FTSE100 and Nikkei remains mildly bearish with MoM turning upwards, while the Nasdaq , S&P 500 and DAX are mildly bullish with MoM going down. This picture will eventually resolve one way or the other when we get the next major move in the market. For now the weekly keys do not tell us which way it will go. We are going sideways.

* On the daily level all covered indexes have upwards MoM, but the Nasdaq and Nikkei still fail to get back above their daily key reversal levels. The Bottom2 target for Nasdaq has been adjusted to 3742.

* In other world markets we see China turning bearish this week as it failed to stay above its weekly key reversal level. But MoM remains to the upside so this is a suspect sell signal that may be reversed quickly. Australia, Spain and Switzerland are switching to upside MoM, which suggest a continuation of their bull markets. So, most world markets continue to do fairly well.

* Bonds(TLT) keep trying to break above their Top1 target at 111.80. The next higher target is adjusted to 114.60 based on latest data. MoM is still to the upside for bonds, but will start to go down if TLT keeps getting rejected at that 111 target.

* Gold is showing some strength, but still needs a close above its daily key level at $1311.59 to get into bullish mode again.

* The Euro remains undecided near the 1.38 level.

* Oil has gone into bearish mode and its weekly MoM is turning down as well. A weekly close below $98.35 would turn crude oil fully bearish.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week, ubchanged from 23 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,075.56 3,979.91 -0.41 68 31.93
S&P 500 1,863.40 1,794.51 2.64 73 31.56
Nikkei 14,429.26 15,036.75 -2.27 6 1.23
FTSE 100 6,685.70 6,705.90 -0.73 6 2.42
DAX 9,401.55 9,134.87 0.50 4 -2.29
Bonds (TLT) 111.33 106.46 4.35 13 4.35
Gold (spot) 1,302.94 1,281.65 1.01 10 -1.15
$EURUSD 1.3832 1.3671 1.68 39 4.14
Oil (CL) 100.60 98.35 2.19 10 0.48

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

25/04/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,075.56 4,179.22 -0.50 23 -4.16 8
S&P 500 1,863.40 1,854.27 2.48 6 0.09 5
Nikkei 14,429.26 14,583.54 0.09 13 -0.05 16
FTSE 100 6,685.70 6,605.42 1.79 3 0.06 13
DAX 9,401.55 9,371.96 0.20 3 -2.09 5
Bonds (TLT) 111.33 109.74 4.00 13 2.11 17
Gold (spot) 1,302.94 1,311.59 -2.20 7 0.03 24
$EURUSD 1.3832 1.3783 0.43 12 -0.16 21
Oil (CL) 100.60 102.62 -0.11 0 0.00 35

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3742*
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.60* 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 109.80* 91.85 86.00

(* = new or updated target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of April 21, 2014

Posted by Danny on April 20, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* The Nasdaq and the Nikkei tested their Bottom1 targets last week and bounced back strongly. For the Nikkei we now see weekly MoM turn up, the first major index to do so. This is a tentative sign that the recent “correction” may be over already. But we have to see if other markets follow. For shallow corrections it is fairly typical to see Mom turn back upwards from near the zero level.

* On the daily level the S&P 500 has switched into rally mode already, with the Nikkei, FTSE100 and DAX coming very close to their daily key reversal levels as well. The Nasdaq is still lagging but has picked up positive MoM. This means we could easily see several more markets going into rally mode next week, and we may see new all time highs fairly soon.

* For other world markets we still have a mostly bullish picture, and the MSCI world index is only a few % below its all time highs. Most markets have not participated in the recent Nasdaq sell-off.

* Bonds(TLT) were rejected at their Top1 target at 111.80. We have a next higher target at 114.20 if the rally continues. MoM is still to the upside for bonds, but will start to go down if TLT keeps getting rejected at that 111 target.

* Gold continues to be in a pullback. It must close the week above $1,282.91 to avoid another bearish episode which would probably push it towards its Bottom1 target at $1185.

* Meanwhile the Euro remains undecided near the 1.38 level versus the US dollar. Once the Euro moves it will probably drag gold and oil with it. Right now my indicators suggest that the next move for the Euro will be down. If so, then look for a strengthening dollar to become a drag on US stock prices as well.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week, up from 20 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,095.52 3,975.87 0.64 67 32.58
S&P 500 1,864.85 1,791.14 2.81 72 31.67
Nikkei 14,516.27 15,077.88 -2.39 5 1.84
FTSE 100 6,625.30 6,702.91 -0.89 5 1.49
DAX 9,409.71 9,122.06 0.56 3 -2.21
Bonds (TLT) 110.05 106.10 4.07 12 3.15
Gold (spot) 1,289.90 1,282.91 1.70 9 -2.14
$EURUSD 1.3805 1.3652 1.80 38 3.94
Oil (CL) 103.37 98.14 2.31 9 3.25

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

17/04/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,095.52 4,192.48 -6.00 18 -3.69 8
S&P 500 1,864.85 1,842.06 -2.49 1 0.17 5
Nikkei 14,516.27 14,588.49 -4.36 8 0.56 12
FTSE 100 6,625.30 6,652.60 -1.65 7 0.52 11
DAX 9,409.71 9,483.73 -3.65 4 1.74 7
Bonds (TLT) 110.05 109.06 5.92 8 0.94 1
Gold (spot) 1,289.90 1,319.16 0.46 2 -0.97 7
$EURUSD 1.3805 1.3775 1.43 7 -0.35 6
Oil (CL) 103.37 101.14 4.99 15 2.00 18

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3797
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 91.85 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Good luck, Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of April 14, 2014

Posted by Danny on April 12, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* Nice drops in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 this week. This is the correction we have been warning for since the middle of March. US markets are now testing their weekly key reversal levels. Next week we will probably know if the Nasdaq and S&P manage to stay bullish or join the Nikkei and the FTSE100 by going bearish on the weekly level.

* The five major indexes have downside weekly MoM again, so the risk that more markets will turn bearish is considerable right now. On the daily level these markets are in declining mode with downward momentum (MoM). We can expect tradeable bottoms as soon as MoM turns back up for them, especially for the markets that have not fallen below their weekly key reversal levels ( Nasdaq, S&P 500, DAX). Check out my daily key reversal tweets to see when MoM goes back up.

* That being said, I would like to keep things in perspective by pointing to our weekly key reversal levels for other world markets, posted on twitter every weekend. Notice how most world markets remain dark green (strong bullish), with China and Hong Kong also turning green this week. So, this does not look like the start of a global bear market. What seems to be going on is a global portfolio rebalancing. Money that has flown into the US since the start of the year, for various reasons, is now flowing back into international markets. I already mentioned a few months ago that emerging markets looked good in my screens. Meanwhile, since turning bullish in our weekly key levels, markets like India and Indonesia are up 7% in 6 and 9 weeks respectively. Singapore is up 2% in 5 weeks. Even Brazil, Turkey, and South Korea, which turned bullish just last week, have been going up in the face of a sharply declining US market. And Euro-tortured Italy is up nearly 12% since turning bullish 15 weeks ago.

* Bonds and Oil are the strongest markets right now, with gold and $EURUSD continuing to hang in the balance. I continue to watch the Euro carefully, as it is set to chose a direction sooner or later. A weekly close above 1.40 or below 1.3630 is likely to become a game changer for many connected markets.

* Several markets are hitting our Top or Bottom targets, so watch these levels for possible trend reversals. Namely: 3975 for the Nasdaq, 13860 for the Nikkei, 111.80 for bonds (TLT), 104 for crude oil (CL).

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 20 stocks are bullish this week, down from 23 last week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Here are the tables.

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 3,999.73 3,977.21 2.37 66 29.48
S&P 500 1,815.69 1,789.90 3.33 71 28.20
Nikkei 13,960.05 15,135.11 -2.39 4 -2.06
FTSE 100 6,561.70 6,714.97 -0.70 4 0.52
DAX 9,315.29 9,119.64 0.80 2 -3.19
Bonds (TLT) 110.73 105.68 3.83 11 3.79
Gold (spot) 1,318.00 1,282.84 2.37 8 -0.01
$EURUSD 1.3884 1.3630 1.96 37 4.53
Oil (CL) 103.74 97.69 2.11 8 3.62

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

11/04/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 3,999.73 4,236.12 -5.78 14 -5.95 7
S&P 500 1,815.69 1,867.37 -2.10 1 -0.82 7
Nikkei 13,960.05 14,774.65 -2.30 3 -3.30 11
FTSE 100 6,561.70 6,671.06 0.34 3 -0.44 11
DAX 9,315.29 9,533.85 0.99 0 0.00 35
Bonds (TLT) 110.73 108.28 2.79 4 1.56 1
Gold (spot) 1,318.00 1,320.44 -0.10 14 0.73 8
$EURUSD 1.3884 1.3762 1.16 2 0.22 5
Oil (CL) 103.74 100.31 4.24 11 2.37 1

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 3797
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 15650 *  17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1185 * 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 91.85 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of April 7, 2014

Posted by Danny on April 6, 2014

Comments on the key levels for this week :

* It was an interesting first week of April. One reader was puzzled and asking how our system can be bullish for the S&P 500 and bearish for Nasdaq. But here we are a few weeks later and the Nasdaq is already more than 5% below its recent peaks while the S&P 500 was still making new all time highs a few days ago.

* The Nikkei and the DAX are seeing weekly MoM turn upwards, and both the Nikkei and FTSE100 are coming very close to their weekly key reversal levels. So we may get back to all markets bullish if these indexes can climb a bit more next week.

* There is a new Bottom1 target for the Nasdaq at 3975.

* Gold has tested its weekly key level and is now bouncing back a bit. But the next major move for gold largely depends on the next move of the Euro, and the Euro continues to suggest more weakness ahead.

* Our weekly key reversal levels for other world markets can be picked up here.

* The weekly key reversal levels for the 30 Dow stocks are available here. 23 stocks are bullish this week. Above 20 is healthy, see : Keeping an eye on the Dow stocks.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,127.73 3,976.56 4.45 65 33.62
S&P 500 1,865.09 1,788.65 4.02 70 31.68
Nikkei 15,063.77 15,142.56 -2.30 3 5.68
FTSE 100 6,695.60 6,718.05 -0.50 3 2.57
DAX 9,695.77 9,111.96 0.90 1 0.77
Bonds (TLT) 108.46 105.35 3.67 10 1.66
Gold (spot) 1,302.78 1,281.98 2.91 7 -1.17
$EURUSD 1.3702 1.3620 2.14 36 3.16
Oil (CL) 101.14 97.49 2.02 7 1.02

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

4/04/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,127.73 4,281.18 -2.51 9 -2.94 8
S&P 500 1,865.09 1,855.71 2.84 37 2.47 1
Nikkei 15,063.77 14,662.45 3.38 4 1.30 13
FTSE 100 6,695.60 6,614.39 1.64 0 0.00 37
DAX 9,695.77 9,402.25 6.47 7 2.83 1
Bonds (TLT) 108.46 108.64 0.34 2 0.87 3
Gold (spot) 1,302.78 1,322.14 -5.79 9 -0.44 8
$EURUSD 1.3702 1.3823 -2.64 11 -0.54 7
Oil (CL) 101.14 99.43 1.23 6 -0.20 21

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 3975 * 3797
S&P 500 1870 1950 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3390 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 91.85 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Stay tuned, Danny

 

 

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Key reversal levels for week of March 17, 2014

Posted by Danny on March 15, 2014

Comments for this week (the key reversal tables are below) :

* DAX, FTSE 100 and Nikkei have closed below their weekly key reversal levels and are now in fully bearish mode. Avoid until we see weekly MoM turning back up for these markets.

* The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are quite a bit stronger and remain well above their weekly key reversal levels, but the Nasdaq has fallen below its daily key level and is now in declining mode. I would not do any buying until we see daily MoM turning up for the US markets.

* Now that markets have reached our Top1 targets and turned back down from them, we can start looking for the Bottom1 targets (see last table)

* Bullish/bearish status for other major world markets is posted on my twitter account every weekend.

* Bonds (TLT) , gold and EURUSD remain fully bullish. Look for Top1 targets to be reached in those markets.

* There are adjusted Top2 targets for Nasdaq and S&P 500 this week.

* Oil has gone into declining mode last week and is coming close to its weekly key reversal level. A weekly close below 97.23 would turn Oil (CL) fully bearish.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,245.40 3,948.74 7.00 62 37.43
S&P 500 1,841.13 1,778.46 3.53 67 29.99
Nikkei 14,327.66 15,236.95 -2.18 0 0.00
FTSE 100 6,527.90 6,747.93 0.81 0 0.00
DAX 9,056.41 9,367.58 1.80 0 0.00
Bonds (TLT) 108.52 105.33 2.52 7 1.21
Gold (spot) 1,382.96 1,278.62 3.44 4 4.92
$EURUSD 1.3905 1.3577 2.20 33 4.69
Oil (CL) 98.89 97.23 2.66 4 -1.23

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

3/14/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,245.40 4,296.21 0.95 0 0.00 35
S&P 500 1,841.13 1,838.23 2.28 22 1.15 2
Nikkei 14,327.66 15,047.78 0.39 0 0.00 39
FTSE 100 6,527.90 6,740.39 -5.43 4 -2.42 11
DAX 9,056.41 9,484.86 -7.77 9 -4.20 11
Bonds (TLT) 108.52 106.57 -0.07 1 -0.41 1
Gold (spot) 1,382.96 1,317.56 4.78 45 10.81 1
$EURUSD 1.3905 1.3757 4.76 25 2.13 1
Oil (CL) 98.89 101.18 -4.04 2 0.81 3

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4531 * 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1950 * 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter. We also try to tweet the daily key reversal levels every day.

Good luck, Danny

 

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Key reversal levels for week of March 10, 2014

Posted by Danny on March 8, 2014

Comments for this week (the reversal tables are posted below) :

* The Nikkei has closed above its weekly key reversal level and is now bullish again. But it could be a fake out move as its weekly MoM remains to the downside, which is suspect. If Nikkei moves above 15500 we can become more confident that this rally is for real.

* US and UK markets are once again testing their Top1 targets and seem to be stalling near these levels. Daily MoM remains to the downside for Nasdaq and FTSE 100, while the DAX continues to weaken. It looks like most markets will need another pullback before they can climb higher.

* Bonds (TLT) are weakening as well. Weekly MoM is turning down and on the daily level bonds have fallen below their key reversal level, putting them into declining mode. If TLT closes below 105.03 next week it will enter fully bearish mode.

* We have a new Top2 target for gold at $1541. This targets will come into play if gold can break above its Top1 target.

***

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,336.22 3,934.46 7.00 61 40.37
S&P 500 1,878.04 1,774.88 3.18 66 32.60
Nikkei 15,274.07 14,610.87 -2.05 0 0.00
FTSE 100 6,712.70 6,589.90 1.15 2 -1.83
DAX 9,350.75 9,095.92 3.09 34 13.51
Bonds (TLT) 105.89 105.03 2.72 6 -1.24
Gold (spot) 1,339.64 1,273.44 2.50 3 1.63
$EURUSD 1.3878 1.3540 1.50 32 4.49
Oil (CL) 102.58 97.21 2.62 3 2.46

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Latest daily key reversal levels:

3/7/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,336.22 4,236.65 6.23 19 5.12 2
S&P 500 1,878.04 1,831.29 6.49 17 3.18 1
Nikkei 15,274.07 14,751.60 2.21 1 -0.04 5
FTSE 100 6,712.70 6,704.21 0.91 18 0.60 2
DAX 9,350.75 9,601.36 -1.59 4 -1.09 7
Bonds (TLT) 105.89 107.35 1.55 0 0.00 35
Gold (spot) 1,339.64 1,306.85 3.73 40 7.34 2
$EURUSD 1.3878 1.3700 2.86 20 1.93 1
Oil (CL) 102.58 99.81 2.42 31 6.09 2

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 4566 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1934 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7250 6230 5980
DAX 9800 10240 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 1541 * 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter. We also try to tweet the daily key reversal levels every day.

Good luck, Danny

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Key reversal levels for week of February 24, 2014

Posted by Danny on February 22, 2014

Key reversal levels for next week:

Weekly Current Mode Key (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch.
Nasdaq 4,263.41 3,903.20 6.03 59 38.01
S&P 500 1,836.25 1,766.65 2.27 64 29.65
Nikkei 14,865.67 15,239.04 -1.45 2 1.49
FTSE 100 6,838.10 6,554.90 0.42 0 0.00
DAX 9,656.95 9,056.11 3.64 32 17.23
Bonds (TLT) 106.67 104.84 2.86 4 -0.51
Gold (spot) 1,323.79 1,262.47 0.72 1 0.43
$EURUSD 1.3735 1.3499 0.64 30 3.41
Oil (CL) 102.20 96.62 1.02 1 2.08

(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments on the weekly key reversal levels:

* Nasdaq, S&P 500 and FTSE100 are back to fully bullish with upward MoM. Nikkei remains the weaker market, with the DAX still hesitating as well.

* $EURUSD is seeing MoM turn up again, so bullish tendency for euro continues.

Latest daily key reversal levels:

21/02/2014 Current W Mode Key (D) MoM (D) Days % Ch. Str. #
Nasdaq 4,263.41 4,152.01 7.95 9 3.35 1
S&P 500 1,836.25 1,802.48 6.71 7 0.89 1
Nikkei 14,865.67 15,029.70 -1.33 19 -1.50 12
FTSE 100 6,838.10 6,645.03 6.59 8 2.48 1
DAX 9,656.95 9,434.48 5.74 8 1.60 6
Bonds (TLT) 106.67 105.86 -1.85 29 2.79 17
Gold (spot) 1,323.79 1,278.36 7.13 30 6.07 2
$EURUSD 1.3735 1.3647 4.16 10 0.88 1
Oil (CL) 102.20 98.24 7.37 21 5.70 1

(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | W = weekly mode | for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )

Comments on the daily key reversal levels:

* All daily signals are nicely in the green (see %Ch. column). This shows the merits of simple trend following versus trying to forecast the next bottom or top.

* Most stock indexes remain in strong bullish mode on the daily level, with Nikkei and DAX being the exceptions. Eventually the current stock market rally will peter out and then we will see MoM turn down for most markets.

* Bonds (TLT), euro and oil are also in fully bullish pictures wit no signs of a top yet. Just go along until the bus stops.

* Gold is hesitating after its recent strong rally. With MoM still at a relatively high 7.13 this pauze could continue for a while. If MoM turns back up before gold drops below its key reversal level, then it will be a good chance to enter (or add to) long gold positions. In a young bull market it is important to try to buy the dips.

Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):

Key Targets Top1 Top2 Bottom1 Bottom2
Nasdaq 4390 3797 3530
S&P 500 1870 1926 1755 1641
Nikkei 17220 13860 12940
FTSE 100 6800 7150 6230 5980 *
DAX 9800 10120 8715 8510
Bonds (TLT) 111.80 114.20 102 96.25
Gold (spot) 1424 * 1153 1075
$EURUSD 1.3950 1.42 1.3435 1.2870
Crude Oil(CL) 104 113 89.50 86.00

(* = new target ) (for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )

Latest developments:

* For gold we have an improved Top1 target at $1424

* FTSE100 has an adjusted Bottom2 target of 5980

* Nasdaq has pushed above its long standing target at 4200, so 4390 is now the next Top1 target.

PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then follow me on Twitter. We also try to tweet the daily key reversal levels every day.

Good luck, Danny

 

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